Most copper stocks trended higher. At the time of writing, China Nonferrous Mining (01258) rose 7.56% to HK$18.36; Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 4.92% to HK$52.25; and MMG (01208) climbed 4.39% to HK$11.65. On the news front, on January 29th, the main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 6%, currently quoted at 108,740 yuan per tonne. LME copper rose over 6% intraday to $13,936 per tonne, hitting another record high. Huayuan Securities pointed out that, from a medium to long-term perspective, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply-side disruptions suggest the copper market's supply-demand balance may shift from "tight equilibrium" to "shortage." Concurrently, against the backdrop of an "anti-involution" push, the profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out, and coupled with the Federal Reserve entering an interest rate cutting cycle, copper prices are poised for a breakthrough upward trend. Galaxy Securities believes that with accommodative macro positioning in both China and the US, and the copper-to-gold ratio at an absolute low, copper's financial attributes are strengthening. Furthermore, influenced by supply mismatches, the market is transitioning from a surplus to a tight balance, and the long-term upward trend for copper is expected to continue with a rising price floor.
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