Investor sentiment towards XIAOMI-W (HKG: 1810) has taken a sharp turn from optimism to frustration following a steep decline in its share price. This shift comes after company founder Lei Jun recently commented on media coverage with a suggestion to "just laugh it off," a stance that now contrasts starkly with shareholders' mounting losses.
The stock's downward trajectory accelerated last week, breaking below the HK$25 support level. On June 23, shares tumbled 4.64%, hitting an intraday low of HK$22.50 before closing at HK$22.62. This represents a decline of over 60% from last year's peak and a drop exceeding 40% year-to-date, effectively erasing gains and returning the share price to levels last seen in October 2024.
Investor Sentiment Reversal
The dramatic change in mood is exemplified by one long-term investor. In January 2026, this investor was bullish, declaring it the "launch year" for Xiaomi and predicting the stock could reach HK$80 within the year and HK$300 within three years, even as the price had already fallen over 30% from its high to around HK$30. By May, while vowing to hold for another six years or more and challenging short-sellers, the focus had shifted to "defending the HK$30 level," with the stock down over 20% from the start of the year.
Now, with the price hovering just above HK$22, the investor's patience appears exhausted. Recent posts first expressed self-deprecation for unwavering loyalty, followed by direct criticism of Lei Jun, questioning how he could remain cheerful while shareholders suffer. This complete reversal from "launch year" optimism to angry disillusionment unfolded in just six months, highlighting the volatile nature of equity markets.
Underlying Business Challenges
Concerns extend beyond the share price to Xiaomi's operational performance. In its core smartphone business, rising memory chip costs have triggered industry-wide price hikes, including at Xiaomi. This has negatively impacted sales volume. According to IDC data, Xiaomi's global shipments for Q1 were 33.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%. The company was absent from the top five rankings for smartphone shipments in China during the period.
Other third-party data indicates an even steeper decline of over 35% for Xiaomi's Q1 shipments in mainland China, to 8.7 million units. Meanwhile, the company's newer ventures, such as automobiles and AI, which had just reported profits of 700 million and 1 billion yuan in Q3 and Q4 2025 respectively, swung back to a significant loss of 3.1 billion yuan in Q1 2026.
In the automotive segment, Xiaomi's deliveries in May exceeded 30,000 units, representing a 7.14% year-on-year increase. However, this growth appears sluggish compared to rivals like Zeekr, Leapmotor, and NIO. This performance is set against a broader downturn in automotive consumption, with May's absolute retail sales for the category falling 16.1% year-on-year to 330.9 billion yuan. For the January-May period, sales dropped 11.8% to 1.6009 trillion yuan.
NIO's CEO William Li has even warned that domestic auto retail sales may not grow in the second half of the year, advising the industry to prepare for a potential full-year decline of 15%-20%. Given Xiaomi's already showing signs of delivery softness, the challenges in the latter half of 2026 could be even more significant.
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