Goldman Sachs' industry research team has released its annual investment outlook for 2026, focusing on ten key areas ranging from the evolution of AI infrastructure to geopolitical uncertainty. These themes reflect the profound transformations underway in global markets, spanning multiple dimensions including technological innovation, medical breakthroughs, the reshaping of trade patterns, and adjustments to the energy structure.
The report states that AI infrastructure investment is entering a new phase. Stock prices of traditional leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon have stagnated since last summer, while new entrants such as Broadcom are beginning to emerge. In the pharmaceutical sector, the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is seeing divergence; Eli Lilly continues to outperform the broader market, but Novo Nordisk's stock has nearly halved in 2025, with market focus shifting to new drugs awaiting approval next year and a revival in the cardiovascular treatment field.
Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, driven primarily by technological advancement and a leading position in exports. Concurrently, policy uncertainties—including the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the Supreme Court's ruling on the Trump administration's tariff policies, and the appointment of a new Fed Chair—are expected to dominate market sentiment in the first half of 2026.
Notably, Goldman Sachs points out that current U.S. stock valuations have reached their highest levels since the late 1990s, suggesting investors should remain cautious while seeking opportunities.
The AI investment theme is undergoing a significant transformation. Stock prices of previously stable leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon have stalled since last summer, while newer companies like Broadcom are making progress, and AI "winners" such as Google are becoming apparent. Investors are looking inside data centers for companies that support the construction of global computing power, regardless of the specific chips used.
Memory manufacturers like Micron Technology have seen their stock prices soar, while connector companies such as Amphenol and TE Connectivity have also shown strong performance.
The "power sector" within AI infrastructure is also transforming. Utility stock gains have stalled, but gas turbine supplier GE Vernova continues to rise, and companies like Quanta Services and EME, capable of installing this equipment, continue to benefit from the scarcity of market and field services.
Ryan Hammond noted in a November 18th report that the next phase of trading will encompass enterprises improving efficiency through the adoption of AI tools.
The transformation in the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is even more pronounced. Eli Lilly's stock continues to outperform, but Novo Nordisk has lost nearly half its value in 2025, with pressure on both price and volume leading to a 33% downward revision in its 2026 earnings per share expectations.
Goldman Sachs analyst Corinne Johnson indicates that the investment focus will shift to new weight-loss products seeking approval next year.
More importantly, the team of Asad Haider and Salveen Richter observes that, with a wave of new drugs and therapies nearing approval, the focus of biopharma is transitioning from obesity drugs to a "Cardiology Renaissance," potentially opening a significant new product cycle.
The boundaries between offline sales, online commerce, and advertising are blurring. Analysts Eric Sheridan and Kate McShane both emphasized this trend in their respective outlook reports.
Sheridan has long focused on this blurring of boundaries and remains optimistic about e-commerce platforms' opportunities to generate profitable revenue through advertising and marketing agreements.
McShane also observes that retailers are expanding into alternative revenue streams like media, membership programs, and e-commerce, emphasizing that delivery speed, value propositions, and the introduction of agency commerce solutions will reshape the industry landscape next year.
Goldman Sachs economists predict China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, driven by technological progress and a sustained leadership position in exports, allowing it to maintain an advantage even in a tariff-heavy environment.
Economists Andrew Tilton, Hui Shan, and their team raised GDP growth forecasts in an October 31st report. The firm believes the impact of China's economic recovery on global trade and the technology landscape will be a key area of focus next year.
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team note that as technology-driven productivity gains support economic growth, there is a risk of a "jobless expansion" next year.
However, analyst Joseph Briggs points out that such productivity improvements are necessary in the face of a shrinking labor force due to immigration restrictions. In the long term, increased productivity will be key to offsetting an aging workforce and declining birth rates.
In terms of investment channels, the private credit market outperformed private equity in 2025 and continues to attract retail capital.
The cryptocurrency market is also expanding. James Yaro notes that companies like Coinbase and Robinhood are well-positioned within expanding markets for cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and prediction markets.
The defense sector is experiencing "evolving militarization." As noted in the report:
In the United States, the Space Force is leaning towards innovators with drone and satellite technology cultures, such as AeroVironment (AVAV) and Rocket Lab (RKLB).
In Europe, to catch up with Russian military capabilities, an investment of up to $160 billion over the next five years may be required for re-militarization.
With advancing technology, the ability to create hardware that simulates common activities is increasing. Mark Delaney believes that developments in humanoid robotics and autonomous driving will drive profit growth for industrial technology companies, including Tesla.
Following research, Jacqueline Du points out that the Chinese humanoid robot supply chain is actively building up production capacity, awaiting the materialization of actual orders.
Additionally, China is also a leader in the autonomous vehicle sector. Allen Chang forecasts that China's Robotaxi market could reach a size of $47 billion by 2035.
Goldman Sachs states that a series of nuclear power plant accidents—Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima—halted nuclear development for decades. But demand can spur revival; the need for more power (preferably "clean" power) for the AI revolution has pushed nuclear energy back to the forefront.
Rare earth metals are also becoming critical components in technology, a sector currently dominated by China. The team of Brian Lee and Paul Young notes that rare earths, as key technological components, present supply chain opportunities (e.g., MP Materials) worth watching.
Policy is always a key theme, but heading into 2026, its impact on markets could be greater than ever.
On monetary policy, the bank's economist David Mericle indicates that debates over the Fed's next move, who will lead it, and the broader implications for U.S. monetary policy are likely to be dominant market themes for at least the first half of the year.
Goldman Sachs traders are monitoring a range of catalysts that could influence market direction, including: an expected Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration's tariff policies, Fed meetings in January and March, the appointment of a new Fed Chair, midterm elections in November, as well as the World Cup and Winter Olympics.
One point investors need to remember is that current equity valuations have reached their highest levels since the late 1990s.
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