Goldman Sachs Group has indicated that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to roughly two-thirds of their pre-conflict volume, a development that is partially tempering the impact of the Iran conflict on global crude prices.
Analysts, including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, reported in a note that the total volume of crude and oil products transported via the Strait of Hormuz has climbed back to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day.
While this figure remains approximately 7 million to 8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels, it marks a significant recovery from the trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels per day observed in March.
Goldman Sachs stated that "increased 'dark shipping' by specialized vessel operators, along with ship-to-ship transfer activities, indicates that producers and shipping companies are adapting to the effects of the Middle East conflict."
The report noted that even if supply disruptions in the region persist for an extended period, the rise in dark fleet operations could "limit the upside potential for crude prices."
Accurately measuring actual crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is challenging, as tankers frequently turn off satellite transponders to avoid detection—a practice known as "dark shipping."
International oil prices have retreated from above $120 per barrel in April to approximately $89 per barrel at present.
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