The US fixed-income market may deliver returns of approximately 7% to 8% over the coming 12 months, according to Bob Michele of JPMorgan Asset Management.

"The Treasury curve is close to 5%," with yields at the front end a little below that, Michele, chief investment officer and head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Asset, said at an event in Singapore. "So the first thing is we expect to see some price appreciation. Then you get the carry on top of that."

Treasuries have rallied across the board this month as a selloff in AI-related shares, the crisis in France and ongoing tensions in the Middle East all combined to make US government debt the investment of choice for global investors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has slumped more than 30 basis points so far in October, set to snap a seven-month rising streak.

Michele said he sees most value in the longer end of the Treasury curve. While the Federal Reserve won't hike rates this week, they'll most likely come back in December to deliver a hawkish message, he added.

"They'll signal that they're still in a hiking cycle. The long end of the curve will like that because they'll want the Fed to be vigilant on growth and inflation pressures and real yields just simply are too high out there," said Michele. JPMorgan Asset manages about $4.6 trillion in assets.

Last month, Michele said his team had started buying long-end US, Japanese, and Australian bonds, calling prices "simply too cheap" and declaring that markets had reached "a point of maximum pain."

A Bloomberg gauge of Treasury returns is down 0.9% so far in 2026, after rising in each of the previous three years.