The economic performance data for the first three quarters of the year has been released across China's 31 provincial-level regions. As the country approaches the conclusion of its 14th Five-Year Plan and prepares to embark on the 15th Five-Year Plan, these quarterly reports have drawn significant attention.
From January to September, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding 100 trillion yuan, maintaining a generally stable and progressive development trend. Against the backdrop of domestic structural adjustments and complex external conditions, how have provincial economies evolved? What new patterns and characteristics have emerged?
**Major Provinces Shoulder Responsibility** In terms of growth rates, 21 out of 31 provinces either matched or surpassed the national average of 5.2%, accounting for two-thirds of the total. Notably, the top 10 provinces by GDP—except Guangdong—all outperformed or matched the national growth rate, demonstrating robust momentum.
Several provinces achieved new milestones in economic scale. Jiangsu's GDP surpassed 10 trillion yuan in the first three quarters for the first time, while Shanghai and Hunan each exceeded 4 trillion yuan. This elevates the "4-trillion club" threshold for China’s top provincial economies.
As key drivers with comprehensive advantages—including mature industrial systems, vast markets, and strong spillover effects—these major provinces contribute over 60% of national GDP, solidifying their role as economic stabilizers. The recently released CPC Central Committee proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly calls for these provinces to "take the lead in advancing Chinese modernization," a mandate they have fulfilled impressively this year.
This success stems from coordinated efforts across sectors. Eight major provinces outpaced the national average in industrial value-added growth, while seven exceeded the national retail sales growth rate. In foreign trade, the top 10 provinces contributed over 70% of total imports and exports, with Henan and Hubei posting remarkable export growth of 18.7% and 25.3%, respectively.
However, competition remains fierce. Guangdong, despite leading in total GDP, saw its incremental growth surpassed by Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang. This reflects Guangdong’s ongoing industrial restructuring challenges, while rivals like Jiangsu and Shandong gain traction through tech innovation and industrial upgrades—a dynamic that fosters healthy competition nationwide.
**Central Region’s Standout Performance** Alongside major provinces, the central region has shown remarkable progress. After a period of slowdown, most central provinces rebounded strongly this year. Among the six central provinces, only Shanxi lagged behind the national average due to energy price volatility. Hubei grew by 6%, ranking third nationally after Gansu and Tibet.
Industrial upgrades drove this resurgence. Five central provinces exceeded the national industrial growth average, with Hubei’s high-tech manufacturing surging 13.5%, contributing 26.7% to industrial growth. Key products like lithium-ion batteries (up 42.8%), EVs (24%), and smartphones (20%) led the charge. Anhui saw a 27.8% spike in high-tech manufacturing, while Jiangxi’s EV output skyrocketed 85.8%.
A landmark shift is the rise of central China’s auto sector. Anhui produced 2.4 million vehicles, including 1.2 million EVs, overtaking Guangdong as the national leader. Hunan and Henan also climbed the rankings, with Hunan jumping 10 spots into the top 10.
Consumer markets in the region also impressed. Most central provinces outperformed in retail sales growth, with Shanxi (6.6%) and Henan (6.2%) ranking among the nation’s fastest.
**Emerging Multi-Polar Growth** Beyond these highlights, other regions displayed distinct trends. In the northeast, Jilin grew 5.3%, buoyed by an 8.4% industrial expansion—2.2 percentage points above the national rate. The recent approval of the Changchun Metropolitan Circle Plan, the 18th national-level urban cluster, promises further momentum for regional revitalization.
Meanwhile, western provinces showed divergence. While Guizhou and Yunnan slowed amid reduced investment reliance, tech-driven Shaanxi and Sichuan maintained rapid growth. Energy-heavy provinces like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia faced headwinds from price swings and industrial monoculture, though transition efforts are underway.
Collectively, the Q1-Q3 data underscores China’s economic resilience and potential. With major provinces leading, central regions ascending, and new growth drivers accelerating, the foundation for sustained development remains robust.
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