On June 18, the three major A-share indices diverged, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%.
Market Analysis
The technology sector performed strongly ahead of the holiday, with communications and electronics leading the gains. This was driven by a dual boost: a temporary cooling of geopolitical risks and reforms to the capital market system. The US and Iran confirmed the finalization of a memorandum of understanding, with a formal signing planned in Switzerland this Friday, which will see the simultaneous lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The subsequent retreat in international oil prices has effectively eased global inflation expectations. Concurrently, at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the expansion of the STAR Market's fifth set of listing standards to the artificial intelligence field, and support for more "hard tech" companies in areas like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and embodied AI to list on the STAR Market. The capital market's tolerance for unprofitable tech companies is expected to increase significantly, opening direct financing channels for high-quality enterprises in the AI industry chain that are still in the R&D investment phase.
On June 17 local time, the US Federal Reserve announced it would keep the interest rate target range unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. However, the statement removed the reference to an "accommodative stance," and the dot plot indicated the probability of a rate hike within the year has risen to approximately 85%. The oil price decline resulting from the US-Iran agreement helps temper inflation expectations, providing some buffer for the Fed's policy path. The current strong performance of the tech sector results from the combined effect of industry trends and policy tailwinds. However, caution is warranted as persistently high overseas interest rates could potentially impose constraints on the valuation multiples of tech growth stocks. The alignment between valuations and earnings may become a core consideration for subsequent market pricing, and sub-sectors within technology possessing core technological barriers and clear commercialization paths remain worthy of attention.
Outlook
Looking ahead, the recovery in short-term market risk appetite is expected to continue, with technology and growth sectors clearly positioned as the core theme. However, attention should be paid to potentially increased volatility following a rapid rebound in trading activity. The Fed's subsequent policy path will remain highly data-dependent. The June dot plot shows most officials favor maintaining restrictive interest rates within the year, with expectations for rate cuts pushed back to 2027. This suggests the pressure of a high-interest-rate environment on growth stock valuations may persist in the medium term, with third-quarter inflation data and oil price trends serving as key windows for judging marginal policy shifts. It is advisable to focus on sectors with clear policy support and industry trends while closely monitoring changes in overseas liquidity conditions to navigate short-term sentiment fluctuations.
Comments