Caitong Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that with the continued advancement of "anti-internal competition" within the express delivery industry, the performance of courier companies is expected to recover. The report suggests focusing on leading stocks at valuation bottoms, such as A-share leader YTO Express (600233.SH), Hong Kong-listed leader ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057), as well as STO Express (002468.SZ) and Yunda Holding (002120.SZ), which exhibit high elasticity in response to the anti-internal competition trend. Given multiple investment themes present opportunities within the sector, a "Positive" rating on the express delivery industry is maintained. The main views of Caitong Securities are as follows:
Industry Volume and Price: ① Volume: In April 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of express delivery business volume (3.20%) exceeded the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods (0.20%) and the growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods (0.16%). From January to April 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales of physical goods (5.7%) was higher than the growth rate of express delivery business volume (5.1%), which in turn exceeded the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods (1.9%). ② Price: In April 2026, the estimated average revenue per parcel in the express delivery industry was 7.65 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The industry's "anti-internal competition" push continues, sustaining the upward trend in per-parcel revenue.
Company-Specific Volume and Price: ① Volume: In April 2026, the express business volume of YTO Express / Yunda Holding / STO Express increased by +1.23% / -4.14% / +13.72% year-on-year, respectively. With the industry's business volume growing at 3.2% year-on-year, STO Express's growth rate exceeded the industry average. ② Price: In April 2026, the year-on-year growth rates of per-parcel revenue for YTO Express / Yunda Holding / STO Express were +4.21% / +10.47% / +14.72%, respectively. Against the backdrop of ongoing anti-internal competition in April, prices for all brands increased significantly. Overall, a positive correlation was observed between the year-on-year increase in company prices and the year-on-year decrease in business volume. The primary reason for STO Express achieving growth in both volume and price is the consolidation of Daniao Logistics and its controlled subsidiaries into STO Express's financial statements starting November 2025. Following this consolidation, STO Express's overall express business volume and express service revenue are expected to see further growth.
Risk Warning: Adjustments in industry policies; industry prosperity falling below expectations; cost control not meeting expectations; significant fluctuations in oil prices.
Comments