The next adjustment window for China's domestic refined oil product prices is scheduled to open at 24:00 tonight, July 3rd. Based on comprehensive analysis from industry institutions, retail fuel prices are poised for a third consecutive reduction, which would also mark the fourth price cut of the year.
An analyst from Zhuochuang Information noted that during the current pricing cycle, international crude oil prices have generally trended weaker, with average prices showing a significant decline compared to the previous cycle. This was influenced by factors such as the U.S. and Iran reaching a memorandum of understanding and increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The crude oil change rate started negative and has continued to deepen, creating a strong expectation for a downward adjustment in retail refined oil prices.
According to the monitoring model from Zhuochuang Information, as of the close of foreign markets on July 1st, the reference crude oil change rate for the domestic market on the 9th working day was -19.31%. This indicates an expected reduction of 855 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel. Translated into per-liter prices, it equates to decreases of approximately 0.67 yuan for 92# gasoline, 0.71 yuan for 95# gasoline, and 0.73 yuan for 0# diesel.
The analyst further explained that if this price reduction is confirmed, it would be the first instance of a "three consecutive drops" this year. For a private car owner, filling a 50-liter tank with 92# gasoline would cost about 33.5 yuan less after this adjustment.
Another analyst from Longzhong Information stated that international crude oil prices have continued to fall during this adjustment cycle. Domestic refined oil prices are expected to see their largest single-adjustment drop of the year, though the final adjustment magnitude will be subject to official announcement.
So far this year, domestic fuel prices have undergone twelve adjustments, resulting in a pattern of "eight increases, three decreases, and one hold." To mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the government implemented price control measures for refined oil products over two consecutive cycles. If the expected reduction materializes this time, the 2026 adjustment pattern would change to "eight increases, four decreases, and one hold."
Following the "ten working days" principle, the next retail price adjustment window for refined oil products is set for 24:00 on July 17, 2026.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, analysts point to several factors. On the supply side, the significant easing of U.S.-Iran tensions and the gradual normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, currently restored to about 60% of pre-conflict levels, alongside plans by Iraq and other producers to accelerate crude production recovery, have substantially reduced supply-side risks.
On the demand side, while forecasts for the global economy and oil demand from major institutions remain cautious, and the recovery of refinery operating rates in several Asian nations still requires time, the traditional peak fuel consumption season in the U.S. offers seasonal support. Demand is expected to improve gradually in the future.
A research report from Tonghui Futures anticipates that international oil prices will likely maintain a pattern of weak range-bound fluctuations in the short term. The report mentioned that significant upward movement is constrained by potential supply increases and macroeconomic pressures, while deeper declines are supported by factors like commercial inventory drawdowns and geopolitical uncertainties. Future attention should focus on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, OPEC+ production policies, and the actual performance of summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere.
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