On the evening of January 19, Sichuan Swellfun Co.,Ltd. released its 2025 performance forecast, revealing a significant downturn in its full-year operational data. The announcement indicated the company expects to achieve annual operating revenue of 3.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; its net profit attributable to shareholders was 392 million yuan, plummeting 71% compared to the previous year, potentially marking the lowest net profit since 2018. Against the backdrop of widespread pressure in the baijiu industry, Sichuan Swellfun is bearing an even heavier burden.
The performance decline is rooted in a series of adjustments Sichuan Swellfun implemented throughout 2025, focusing on channel health and its pricing system, with the most critical measure being the shipment halt and control initiated in July for its core product. As the core product accounting for over 50% of the company's revenue, the adjustments to Zhenniang Ba Hao directly impacted the full-year performance trajectory.
On July 8, 2025, Sichuan Swellfun implemented a full-channel shipment halt for the 500ml version of Zhenniang Ba Hao (including single bottles, whole cases, and gift box sets). Concurrently, the company rolled out two supporting control measures: first, strictly controlling e-commerce prices by implementing buy-and-get promotions controls for the 520ml version of Zhenniang Ba Hao and prohibiting low-price promotions on e-commerce platforms; second, making every effort to recover cross-region diverted goods under the principle of "collect all that is collectable," aiming to stabilize regional price systems through proactive intervention.
This adjustment achieved some short-term price recovery effects, effectively curbing the previously sustained downward trend in prices. However, the shipment halt also directly led to a sharp contraction in delivery volume. In the third quarter of 2025, the company's revenue plummeted 58.91% year-on-year, sales collections dropped 74.8% to 582 million yuan compared to the same period last year, and the contract liabilities balance decreased to 862 million yuan, down 18% year-on-year.
Beyond shipment control, optimizing the channel structure was another key initiative for Sichuan Swellfun in 2025. Confronted with issues like high dealer inventory and price inversions, the company proactively reduced the practice of pushing inventory onto dealers to optimize stock levels. Simultaneously, the company intensified efforts in new channels such as e-commerce, group purchases, and O2O. Revenue from these new channels grew 71.24% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reaching 562 million yuan, but this accounted for only 25.44% of total revenue, insufficient to offset the decline in the traditional wholesale and distribution channel—which saw revenue plunge 50.45% year-on-year to 1.647 billion yuan, with sales volume decreasing by 42.27%.
Overall, Sichuan Swellfun's 2025 performance decline results from a combination of industry cyclical factors and the company's own operational issues, not from a single cause.
From an industry perspective, 2025 saw the baijiu sector enter a phase of deep adjustment. Core consumption scenarios like banquets and business entertainment recovered slowly, compounded by the impact of "alcohol restriction" policies in many regions, leading to persistently weak consumer demand. Furthermore, price wars intensified in the sub-premium baijiu segment, overall industry inventory turnover days increased, and competition in the 300-800 yuan price band—where Sichuan Swellfun's main products compete—became fiercely heated, further squeezing its market space.
Problems at the channel level were even more pronounced. The company's long-term over-reliance on "growth fueled by inventory pushing" led to persistently high dealer inventory levels; inventory turnover days had already reached 1,134 days in 2024 and extended further in 2025, dampening dealers' willingness to purchase stock. The termination of the major partnership between Henan's general distributor, Yunfei Jiuye, and Sichuan Swellfun in the first half of 2025 once sparked significant market discussion.
The worsening price inversion of core products exacerbated channel difficulties. According to media reports, while the official guide price for Zhenniang Ba Hao was 578 yuan per bottle (52% ABV, 500ml), the post-subsidy price on some e-commerce platforms was only 230-250 yuan per bottle, representing a significant inversion compared to the wholesale price of around 360 yuan per bottle.
A singular product structure has also weakened Sichuan Swellfun's ability to withstand risks. The company's revenue is highly dependent on the Zhenniang Ba Hao and Jing Tai series, while high-end products like Dian Cang and Qing Cui contribute a relatively small portion. The revenue scale from mid-range products remains small, unable to form a second growth curve.
For Sichuan Swellfun, the key to emerging from this performance trough lies in the progress of rebuilding its channel system, the effectiveness of optimizing its product matrix, and the pace of recovery in the industry's core consumption scenarios.
(Note: This article was created with the assistance of AI tools and does not constitute investment advice.)
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