Oil Price Outlook Shifts: Latest Updates on Fuel Costs

The latest domestic fuel price adjustment window is set to open at 24:00 on June 4, with just three days remaining until the 11th round of refined product oil price changes for the year.

Current market expectations point to a notable decline in oil prices, with 95-octane gasoline anticipated to fall below the 9 yuan per liter mark.

Data from the current pricing cycle, now 70% complete, indicates a significant downward revision. Influenced by a sharp drop in international crude oil prices last Friday, the expected reduction has expanded further.

The projected decrease now stands at approximately 0.4 yuan per liter, solidifying the likelihood of a substantial price cut. This would mark the second domestic fuel price reduction of the year, effective for drivers on Thursday evening.

Upon the adjustment taking effect at 24:00 on June 4, the market is poised to see a significant drop in oil prices. The price of 95-octane gasoline is expected to dip under 9 yuan, while 0-grade diesel also has the potential to fall below 8 yuan.

Optimism regarding easing tensions in the Middle East has been the primary driver of recent trading sentiment. A substantial retreat in geopolitical risk premiums led to a sharp decline in international oil prices last week.

Specifically, the main contract for U.S. crude oil futures fell by a cumulative 9.57%, while Brent crude experienced an even steeper drop of over 11%.

Reviewing the domestic oil price adjustments this year, a total of 25 scheduled adjustments are planned. So far, 10 rounds have been implemented, resulting in a pattern of more increases than decreases: eight hikes, one reduction, and one suspension.

As the current adjustment cycle nears its conclusion, with only three statistical days left, the estimated magnitude of the cut continues to rise.

Based on statistics from the first six working days, a price reduction of 510 yuan per ton is forecast. At this projected rate of decline, the retail prices for gasoline and diesel are expected to fall between 0.39 yuan and 0.46 yuan per liter.