According to data for the first quarter of 2026 released by Setter Capital, AI company Anthropic has surpassed SpaceX to become the most sought-after startup equity in the private secondary market. Concurrently, the appeal of OpenAI shares in the secondary market has seen a notable decline.
Glen Anderson, President of investment bank Rainmaker Securities, stated in an interview with TechCrunch that Anthropic is the "hardest stock to acquire" on their platform, with very few shareholders willing to sell.
This situation presents a stark contrast to that of OpenAI. Approximately six institutional investors attempted to sell a total of about $6 billion worth of OpenAI shares on the secondary market but have so far been unable to find buyers. OpenAI shares are trading at a valuation of approximately $765 billion in the secondary market, representing a discount of about 10% compared to its latest funding round valuation of $852 billion.
This divergence in market sentiment stems from differences in valuation logic. OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round at the end of March, reaching a valuation of $852 billion, which leaves limited upside potential for secondary market buyers. In contrast, Anthropic completed a $30 billion funding round in February this year, valuing the company at $380 billion, which investors perceive as having greater growth potential.
Anderson believes an unexpected catalyst has fueled Anthropic's surge in popularity: its designation by the U.S. Department of Defense as a "supply chain risk" in March. This event, he suggests, unexpectedly boosted the company's favorability among the public and investors. "People see it as a hero standing up against big government," he said, "This has amplified its differentiation from OpenAI."
Notably, Goldman Sachs' fee structure for facilitating trades in shares of both companies also reflects the temperature difference in the market. The bank does not charge a profit share for providing clients access to OpenAI shares, whereas it applies the standard 15% to 20% carry fee for transactions involving Anthropic shares.
Venture capitalist Turner Novak pointed out that five of the top six companies on Setter Capital's list are viewed as potential IPO candidates within the next 12 to 18 months. Anderson added that institutional investors are still monitoring both companies closely, stating that "the jury is still out" on a final verdict, but current market activity is clearly more concentrated on the Anthropic side.
Beyond AI companies, SpaceX's IPO plans are also capturing market attention. SpaceX secretly filed for an IPO with the SEC on April 1, planning to go public in June with a target valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. The fundraising size could reach $50 billion to $75 billion. If successful, this would be the largest IPO in history.
Anderson warned that SpaceX's potential mega-IPO could "suck up significant liquidity," potentially crowding out the subsequent listing plans of both OpenAI and Anthropic. "There's only so much capital allocated for IPOs," he remarked, "It's a case of first come, first served."
Comments