Guojin Securities has issued a research report stating that AKESO's (09926) core products are experiencing rapid commercial scaling in the domestic market and possess the potential to lead global clinical treatment advancements. The firm forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 0.4 billion yuan and 13 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, and has newly projected a net profit of 19 billion yuan for 2028. A "Buy" rating is maintained.
The core products are scaling rapidly and leading clinical iterations. In 2025, the company achieved product sales revenue of 3.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%. This growth was primarily driven by the inclusion of core products cadonilimab and ivonescimab into the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) for the first time in 2025, along with successive approvals for their first-line indications.
Looking ahead to 2026, with the inclusion of ivonescimab for first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive NSCLC, cadonilimab regimens for first-line treatment of gastric cancer and cervical cancer, as well as the full addition of penpulimab, inusitol, and iroquois to the NRDL, the scaling of sales is expected to accelerate further.
International expansion is entering a harvest period. Ivonescimab, led by partner SMMT, is the subject of five global Phase III clinical trials focusing on major indications such as lung cancer. One of these trials, for EGFR-TKI treated nsq-NSCLC, is under review by the U.S. FDA. Ivonescimab has the potential to become the first China-original bispecific antibody new drug approved in the United States, and its global leading advantage is becoming more pronounced as the international strategy advances.
Furthermore, the company is efficiently conducting its own registrational Phase III trial for cadonilimab in first-line treatment of gastric cancer across all patient populations, as well as an international registrational clinical trial for treating IO-resistant hepatocellular carcinoma, which could address unmet international clinical needs. A Phase III international trial for the CD47 monoclonal antibody targeting 1L HNSCC (PD-L1+) has also been initiated. The pipeline includes subsequent assets such as a TROP2/Nectin-4 ADC and an IL-4Rα/ST2 bispecific antibody.
The company is systematically developing IO 2.0 and ADC therapies to lead a paradigm shift in treatment. IO-ADC combinations are among the most prominent directions explored globally for combination cancer therapy. The company has initiated Phase II trials for a series of combination therapies involving its self-developed bispecific antibody ADC drug AK146D1 and next-generation ADC drug AK138D1, combined with the IO bispecific antibodies cadonilimab and ivonescimab. International clinical trials for these combination therapies will be advanced simultaneously, and their subsequent progress warrants attention.
Risks include potential delays in new drug development, slower-than-expected progress overseas, and commercial sales scaling falling short of expectations.
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