Challenges Facing Starlink's Mobile Service Expansion

Deep News04-07 17:11

Elon Musk and then-T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert announced a partnership for Starlink mobile services during a joint event in 2022. SpaceX executives have stated that the Starlink mobile direct-to-cell service, offered through mobile carriers, aims to eventually reach hundreds of millions of users globally, which would also help support SpaceX's valuation. However, the service's current revenue remains minimal.

According to two individuals familiar with the agreement, T-Mobile, SpaceX's exclusive mobile partner in the U.S., is activating Starlink mobile services for its customers and will pay SpaceX approximately $100 million in total upon reaching various service milestones. This includes an initial payment of tens of millions of dollars made when the agreement was signed in 2022, along with subsequent payments related to the service's launch last year.

This total amount represents only a small fraction of SpaceX's overall revenue—the company's revenue for 2025 was approximately $16 billion. The previously undisclosed scale of the T-Mobile partnership highlights the challenges SpaceX faces in establishing Starlink mobile as a significant business segment. In contrast, the standard Starlink service, which relies on a different satellite constellation to beam internet to terminals rather than directly to mobile phones, remains a much larger operation and contributes the majority of Starlink's revenue.

As SpaceX prepares for a public listing, the growth prospects of Starlink mobile have become increasingly important. The company reportedly submitted a confidential IPO application last week. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has stated that the direct-to-cell service is helping to boost the company's valuation, which recently reached $1.25 trillion.

According to one of the sources, Musk views the partnership with T-Mobile internally as a means to reach millions of potential mobile users, rather than as a business expected to generate substantial revenue in its early stages. Publicly, Musk has described the agreement as granting T-Mobile exclusive rights in the U.S. for the first year after launch, after which it will be opened to other carriers. "We are initially partnering with one carrier per country, but ultimately aim to serve all carriers," Musk said in 2024.

Starlink mobile transmits cellular signals directly to mobile phones, providing service in areas without ground-based tower coverage. The service offers more comprehensive and seamless connectivity compared to current satellite features on Apple iPhones, which rely on Globalstar's network and are limited to messaging and location services in remote areas.

Currently, the service remains a niche offering. In a speech in March, Starlink head Michael Nichols stated that the mobile service has 10 million monthly active users globally, with cumulative connections to "over 16 million unique users." The largest user base is likely in Ukraine, according to statements from local operator Kyivstar, which provides Starlink mobile services there. A Kyivstar executive said in March that 5 million users in the country had used Starlink mobile for texting, and the service is offered free of charge.

Nichols expressed the company's goal to increase global monthly active users to 25 million by the end of this year. However, the mobile communications industry remains skeptical about consumer demand for Starlink mobile, given that traditional mobile networks already provide reliable coverage in most areas where people live and work.

For carriers, making Starlink mobile commercially viable requires convincing users to pay for it. Currently, T-Mobile offers the service as a $10 per month add-on or includes it as a benefit in higher-tier plans. T-Mobile has not disclosed specific user numbers for the satellite service but stated in January that nearly 2 million people had registered for a free beta version launched in 2025, sending millions of text messages through the service.

SpaceX has demonstrated ambitious plans to expand Starlink mobile. The company has agreed to acquire mobile spectrum from EchoStar for $19.6 billion, which it plans to use to upgrade the service to support video streaming and video calls. These enhancements will be delivered via next-generation Starlink mobile satellites, scheduled for launch starting next year once the repeatedly delayed Starship rocket becomes operational.

Supporters of SpaceX believe Starlink mobile is on the verge of rapid growth. A PitchBook analyst predicted in a March report that the service's annual revenue could grow from an estimated $240 million currently to over $42 billion by 2040.

Beyond uncertain consumer demand, Starlink mobile also faces increasing competition. In the U.S., for example, AT&T and Verizon have partnered with AST SpaceMobile, a competitor to Starlink mobile, which plans to officially launch its service later this year.

Deutsche Telekom CEO Timotheus Höttges stated in March that the company is open to working with multiple direct-to-cell service providers. Deutsche Telekom, which plans to launch Starlink services in Europe by 2028, is also the controlling shareholder of T-Mobile. SpaceX additionally offers Starlink mobile through partnerships with mobile operators in countries including Japan, Canada, Ukraine, and Australia.

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