According to Zhitong Finance APP, as the US dollar and US Treasury yields retreated simultaneously, Hong Kong's three major indices opened higher and climbed throughout the day, finishing at intraday highs after a unilateral rally in the afternoon session.
On the trading floor, long-term bond yields fell in tandem, gold stocks surged once more, geopolitical risk premiums dropped rapidly, and oil and gas-related concepts declined sharply.
By the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.67% to 24,796.98 points, with total daily turnover of HK$356.667 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 5.55% to 4,154.29 points.
Among Hong Kong ETF products ranked by size, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) closed up 3.92% at HK$24.94; the CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (03033) rose 5.66% to HK$4.072; the CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leveraged (2x) Product (07709) fell 17.06% to HK$18.08.
Sector Performance
As the US dollar and US Treasury yields collapsed in unison, gold ETFs climbed again.
By the close, the Guotai Gold Stocks ETF (517400.SH) rose 3.69% to 1.405 yuan; the ChinaAMC Gold Stocks ETF (159562.SZ) gained 3.58% to 1.936 yuan; the E Fund Gold Mining ETF (02824) advanced 5.37% to HK$9.805.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from around 4.95% to 4.88%, the US dollar index briefly dropped 0.6% to 101.25, the lowest level since September 30, and spot gold prices climbed back above $4,100 per ounce.
Everbright Futures noted that the most direct trigger for this rebound was the "simultaneous collapse of the US dollar and US Treasury yields" after the US midterm election results became clear, adding that "for gold, the combination of a weakening dollar and falling yields is relatively favorable."
CITIC Securities believes that after Democrats gained control of Congress, if war funding is cut, it could push Middle East prospects toward greater clarity in the medium term, helping to lower inflation expectations and thereby improve tightening expectations.
Markets are betting on a higher probability of US-Iran diplomatic negotiations, expectations for Strait supply disruptions have cooled, and oil and gas-related concepts fell sharply.
By the close, the Fullgoal S&P Oil and Gas ETF (513350.SH) dropped 6.83% to 1.268 yuan; the Harvest S&P Oil and Gas ETF (159518.SZ) fell 6.67% to 1.203 yuan; the CCB Energy and Chemicals ETF (159981.SZ) declined 5.85% to 1.755 yuan.
According to Vortexa data, crude oil, condensate, and refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz in October averaged 17.1 million barrels per day, down from 18.9 million barrels in September but equivalent to about 75% of pre-war levels; OPEC+ kept production unchanged for December, and the US plans to release another 40 million barrels from strategic reserves.
Brent crude oil futures fell to $94.62 per barrel, a single-day drop of more than 7%, while WTI fell to around $88 per barrel, down more than 8%.
Nanhua Futures believes market expectations for easing US-Iran relations and the gradual resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have clearly strengthened, driving a rapid retreat in crude oil geopolitical risk premiums, but also cautioned that "Iran still stresses that there is a significant gap between the two sides in reaching an agreement, and the situation may still see reversals."
After the midterm elections, Democrats control both the Senate and the House, and their senior officials have stated they will use budget appropriation powers to push for ending the Iran conflict, with trading desks quickly pricing in de-escalation.
The third-quarter reports for semiconductor equipment continued to show prosperity, and related ETFs extended their gains.
By the close, the GF Semiconductor Equipment ETF (560780.SH) rose 9.63% to 0.774 yuan; the E Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558.SZ) gained 9.54% to 0.827 yuan; the Guotai Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516.SZ) advanced 9.15% to 0.525 yuan.
According to statistics, 14 semiconductor equipment companies reported combined revenue of 75.938 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 19.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to parent companies of 17.660 billion yuan, up 59.5% year-on-year, with profit growth exceeding revenue growth by more than 40 percentage points.
Soochow Securities believes the scale effect of front-end equipment is gradually emerging, and AI computing infrastructure is driving demand for advanced logic, advanced memory, and advanced packaging equipment.
Sinolink Securities pointed out that the overall domestic substitution rate for equipment has risen from 13% in 2017 to 20% in 2024, and is expected to reach 22% in 2025, while key areas such as lithography, metrology and inspection, and coating and developing remain below 25%; combined with the National Big Fund Phase III's approximately 344 billion yuan focused investment in equipment, domestic equipment procurement is expected to continue expanding.
Institutional Views
HuaTai Securities chief macro economist Yi Huan analyzed that "the peak of macro liquidity pressure on Hong Kong stocks may be passing, but constraints are difficult to fully remove, and opportunities in Hong Kong stocks will come more from structural profit improvement and allocation effects from global fund rebalancing. Short-term trading of pessimistic expectations has been relatively thorough, and an sentiment-repair rebound is likely, but the medium-term decisive factor remains the progress of domestic demand improvement."
Everbright Securities chief overseas TMT analyst Fu Tianzi stated that "after the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting announced unchanged rates, interest rate pressure eased marginally. Against this backdrop, the external constraints on Hong Kong stock market valuations have lessened, and future performance of the technology growth sector will depend more on fundamental delivery."
ETF Developments
The Yongying ChiNext Battery ETF (158081.SZ) listed for the first day, closing up 4.43% at 1.061 yuan, with turnover of 185 million yuan; the fund tracks the ChiNext Battery Index, focusing on the two frontier battery areas of energy storage and solid-state batteries.
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