Option Focus | SpaceX’s $5.03 Million Synthetic Long and $5.28 Million Collar-Risk-Reversal Combo Drive Overwhelmingly Bullish Sentiment

Option Witch10:34

SpaceX closed at USD 116.41, up 2.56 %.

Unusually large options activity dominated the session, fueled by a $5.03 million synthetic long position and a $5.28 million collar-risk-reversal combination. Bullish flow overwhelmed bearish flow by a margin of $15.16 million, revealing a market that is overwhelmingly positioning for further upside, with complex structures used to manage risk rather than express doubt.

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Options Indicators

SPCX shows an implied volatility of 120.53%, and with an IV percentile of 99.53%, current option volatility is sitting at the extreme high end of its historical range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 2.11, this indicates implied volatility is running well above realized volatility, reinforcing the view that options are priced expensively and that the market is embedding very rich near-term premium into contracts.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.59.

Large Trades

A bullish synthetic long worth $5.03 million was established through buying 2,100 September 18, 2026 $130.00 calls and selling 2,100 September 18, 2026 $105.00 puts, for a combined traded amount of $5.03 million. This is a classic buy-call-plus-sell-put structure that replicates long stock exposure, signaling a directional bullish bet rather than simple premium collection. With the stock reference at $116.41, the $130.00 call is out of the money and the $105.00 put is also out of the money, showing the trader is positioning for upside over time while being willing to take on downside assignment risk below $105.00. The structure reflects a strong conviction that SPCX can trade materially higher into September 2026.

A $5.28 million three-leg call-and-put combination traded using the August 21, 2026 expiration, consisting of a sale of 2,000 $115.00 calls, a purchase of 2,000 $140.00 calls, and a purchase of 2,000 $95.00 puts. This package appears to be a defined-risk combination financed in part by the short in-the-money $115.00 call, with the $140.00 call out of the money and the $95.00 put also out of the money against the $116.41 stock reference. Strategically, it resembles a collar-like or risk-reversal-style hedge with an added upside call cap reset, suggesting the trader is sacrificing near-strike upside through the short in-the-money call while maintaining tail protection through the long put and retaining upside participation above $140.00 through the long call. The structure looks more like a hedging or risk-management trade than an outright aggressive bullish chase.

Overall sentiment in SPCX large trades was clearly bullish, with $17.26 million in bullish flow versus $2.10 million in bearish flow, leaving a net bullish difference of $15.16 million. The directional judgment is firmly positive: the flow was dominated by bullish premium, including the large synthetic long and other notable upside call activity, while bearish trades were comparatively small and appeared more tactical than conviction-driven. Even where complex structures were used, the broader pattern suggests traders are positioning for upside exposure while selectively managing risk, pointing to a market tone that remains decisively constructive on SPCX.

Strategy Reference

Given the elevated IV percentile, a short put seller targeting a low assignment probability could consider the $95.00 strike in the September 2026 cycle, which sits well below the reference price and aligns with the downside protection level seen in the large collar trade.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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