SpaceX closed at USD 116.41, up 2.56 %.
Unusually large options activity dominated the session, fueled by a $5.03 million synthetic long position and a $5.28 million collar-risk-reversal combination. Bullish flow overwhelmed bearish flow by a margin of $15.16 million, revealing a market that is overwhelmingly positioning for further upside, with complex structures used to manage risk rather than express doubt.
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Options Indicators
SPCX shows an implied volatility of 120.53%, and with an IV percentile of 99.53%, current option volatility is sitting at the extreme high end of its historical range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 2.11, this indicates implied volatility is running well above realized volatility, reinforcing the view that options are priced expensively and that the market is embedding very rich near-term premium into contracts.
The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.59.
Large Trades
A bullish synthetic long worth $5.03 million was established through buying 2,100 September 18, 2026 $130.00 calls and selling 2,100 September 18, 2026 $105.00 puts, for a combined traded amount of $5.03 million. This is a classic buy-call-plus-sell-put structure that replicates long stock exposure, signaling a directional bullish bet rather than simple premium collection. With the stock reference at $116.41, the $130.00 call is out of the money and the $105.00 put is also out of the money, showing the trader is positioning for upside over time while being willing to take on downside assignment risk below $105.00. The structure reflects a strong conviction that SPCX can trade materially higher into September 2026.
A $5.28 million three-leg call-and-put combination traded using the August 21, 2026 expiration, consisting of a sale of 2,000 $115.00 calls, a purchase of 2,000 $140.00 calls, and a purchase of 2,000 $95.00 puts. This package appears to be a defined-risk combination financed in part by the short in-the-money $115.00 call, with the $140.00 call out of the money and the $95.00 put also out of the money against the $116.41 stock reference. Strategically, it resembles a collar-like or risk-reversal-style hedge with an added upside call cap reset, suggesting the trader is sacrificing near-strike upside through the short in-the-money call while maintaining tail protection through the long put and retaining upside participation above $140.00 through the long call. The structure looks more like a hedging or risk-management trade than an outright aggressive bullish chase.
Overall sentiment in SPCX large trades was clearly bullish, with $17.26 million in bullish flow versus $2.10 million in bearish flow, leaving a net bullish difference of $15.16 million. The directional judgment is firmly positive: the flow was dominated by bullish premium, including the large synthetic long and other notable upside call activity, while bearish trades were comparatively small and appeared more tactical than conviction-driven. Even where complex structures were used, the broader pattern suggests traders are positioning for upside exposure while selectively managing risk, pointing to a market tone that remains decisively constructive on SPCX.
Strategy Reference
Given the elevated IV percentile, a short put seller targeting a low assignment probability could consider the $95.00 strike in the September 2026 cycle, which sits well below the reference price and aligns with the downside protection level seen in the large collar trade.
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