Gold's latest market trend analysis:
On June 4th, gold news analysis: In early Asian trading on Thursday, spot gold was trading around $4,460 per ounce. Despite briefly approaching the $4,500 per ounce level on Wednesday, gold faced pressure below this key level due to market bets on sustained high interest rates, influenced by inflation concerns stemming from escalating Middle East tensions. Gold prices fell slightly on Wednesday, with spot gold dropping 1% to $4,434.25 per ounce. New York Fed President Williams stated that inflation risks from the conflict are not expected to persist for long and that no monetary policy adjustments are currently needed. The market is also focused on the upcoming US May non-farm payrolls data on Friday, following an ADP report showing stronger-than-expected private sector job growth in May.
Gold technical analysis: The current daily chart structure continues to weaken, with gold prices effectively breaking below the short-term support of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. These moving averages have shifted from support to resistance, forming a bearish alignment pattern. Previous rebounds have repeatedly failed to break through key resistance zones, with prices quickly retreating after highs, resulting in long upper shadow candlesticks indicating significant selling pressure above. The bearish pattern is more pronounced on the 4-hour short-term chart, showing a step-like decline with consistently lower highs and lows, and a declining center of gravity for price oscillations. Gold prices remain under pressure below the short-term moving averages, with every minor rebound being suppressed and reversing, typical of a weak, grinding decline. Key support zones have been successively lost, with defensive positions for bulls continuously lowered, reflecting weak buying interest for a bottom. Overall technical signals are comprehensively bearish; any rebounds are merely weak technical corrections with no signs of a reversal. Until there is an effective break above key resistance to reverse the weak structure, gold is expected to continue its weak downtrend with oscillating declines. The immediate core resistance above is concentrated in the $4,500-$4,510 range, representing the short-term moving average resistance and a level where rebounds have been repeatedly capped, indicating concentrated selling pressure. A significant rebound is unlikely to break through this area in a weak market. The stronger resistance lies around $4,550, a level converted from the breakdown of the previous consolidation platform's low, serving as a key defensive line for bulls and bears. If prices cannot reclaim this zone, the bearish trend remains intact. Short-term support below is at $4,450-$4,430, a temporary stabilization zone with weak support that is easily breached. The core strong support below is in the $4,400-$4,380 range, a defensive zone for the current stage's low. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading, the suggested strategy is primarily to buy on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Focus on resistance around $4,488-$4,495 above, and support around $4,435-$4,420 below.
Oil's latest market trend analysis:
Oil news analysis: In early Asian trading on Thursday, June 4th (Beijing time), US crude oil was trading around $94.84 per barrel. An agreement between Lebanon and Israel to implement a ceasefire and establish pilot zones limited oil price gains. Oil prices strengthened for a third consecutive day on Wednesday amid escalating Middle East tensions, with former US President Trump suggesting a potential maritime blockade of Iran could last until September. Oil prices rose over 3% on Wednesday, with US crude hitting a one-week high of $97 per barrel before settling at $96.20 per barrel, influenced by renewed tensions in the Middle East and minimal progress in US-Iran talks. Iran's foreign minister stated that communication with Washington has not ceased but negotiations have not advanced. The International Energy Agency warned that if the current pace of inventory drawdowns continues, global crude oil stocks could fall to critical levels before the peak summer demand season. Additionally, US Energy Information Administration data showed a draw of 8 million barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending May 29th, significantly exceeding the expected draw of 4 million barrels.
Oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, oil prices are fluctuating around the moving average system, indicating a medium-term objective trend of consolidation. The overall oscillating pattern of the oil price movement is secondary, having persisted for over two months, with a medium-term subjective trend direction biased upward. The current MACD indicator is operating near the zero axis above, showing waning bullish momentum. The medium-term trend is expected to remain primarily consolidative. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, oil prices continue to operate within a wide upward channel, with the objective trend direction gradually turning upward. In early trading, oil prices formed a secondary consolidation pattern within the channel, with bullish and bearish forces evenly matched. It is anticipated that intraday oil prices will likely find support again near the lower channel boundary after a pullback and then continue their upward movement. In summary, for today's oil trading, the suggested strategy is primarily to buy on dips. Focus on resistance around the $98.0-$100.0 range above, and support around the $92.0-$90.0 range below.
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