After the Hang Seng Healthcare Index recently experienced an "eight-day losing streak," it finally broke out with a long-awaited positive candle on October 20, with intraday gains at one point exceeding 2.5%. Against this backdrop, HAIXI PHARMA (02637) share price performance appeared somewhat lackluster. However, recent observations show that multiple institutions have updated their research coverage on HAIXI PHARMA, generally expressing high expectations for the company's innovation pipeline, with some institutions setting target prices significantly above the current share price. For investors, this may be a positive market direction signal.
After a 250% surge following listing, in reality, compared to HAIXI PHARMA's over 30% share price decline since April, the Hong Kong innovative drug index during the same period also experienced volatile declines but with an overall drop of only about 8.99%, indicating that HAIXI PHARMA's share price has clearly underperformed the index. Therefore, compared to sector fluctuations, independent suppression factors at the individual stock level may be the primary reason dominating HAIXI PHARMA's share price movement during this phase.
Observations show that after listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange on October 20 last year, HAIXI PHARMA's share price climbed steadily, with the intraday high of HK$302.40 on April 28 representing a 250% increase from its IPO price of HK$86.40. Particularly starting from late March this year, the company's share price began a rapid ascent from around HK$140 per share, doubling within just one month. On April 20, HAIXI PHARMA reached its six-month listing anniversary and faced a lock-up expiry, with cornerstone investors holding 1.9817 million shares, accounting for 2.52% of total post-issuance share capital. Therefore, in late April this year, HAIXI PHARMA effectively faced the pressure of "post-listing share price doubling plus cornerstone lock-up expiry window" for high valuation realization. In particular, the company was also officially included in the Stock Connect program in March this year. While the Stock Connect mechanism significantly enhanced its stock market liquidity and southbound capital participation, it also further amplified the share price volatility of this low-float, high-expectation Mechanism B innovative drug stock.
However, HAIXI PHARMA's share price during this downtrend was not a one-way decline, but rather a repeated alternation of high-volatility declines and rebound recoveries. Taking the market action since July 31 as an example, HAIXI PHARMA's share price during this period experienced an inverted V-shaped pattern of "platform breakout with volume - high-level divergence - weak recovery after volume-driven decline."
Observations show that after market close on August 4, the company announced that its blockbuster innovative drug HX9428 received FDA Phase II clinical IND approval in the United States, while simultaneously launching a second positive-controlled Phase II clinical trial domestically, planning to enroll 60 nAMD patients for a head-to-head comparison against aflibercept. It was precisely the market's revaluation of the company driven by HX9428's clinical progress that propelled its share price gains in the first half of August. Supported by positive innovative drug news, HAIXI PHARMA's share price rise in early August was accompanied by sustained volume expansion, with no significant volume-driven selling during pullbacks. Specifically, the company's single-day trading volume on August 14 expanded to 2.41 times the prior 20-day average, with the closing price breaking above the platform upper boundary; then on August 17, its single-day trading volume again expanded to 2.65 times the prior 20-day average, pushing the share price to a stage high of HK$248 the following day.
On the corresponding technical front, on August 18, HAIXI PHARMA's 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages representing short-to-medium-term trends were all in bullish alignment with no break in trend; meanwhile, the MACD indicator was accelerating above the zero line with no obvious momentum exhaustion; and the RSI indicator was only at about 62.4, not yet in extreme overbought territory, indicating some trend inertia remained at that time. However, on the other hand, HAIXI PHARMA's KDJ indicator on August 18 showed the J value had retreated from highs, indicating short-term momentum was beginning to cool; on the BOLL indicator, the company's closing price was near the upper band while the BOLL bandwidth had reached about 33.8%, and volatility expansion accompanying a strong breakout often signals imminent short-term fluctuation. The fact that these different technical indicators pointed to different share price directions to some extent foreshadowed the beginning of high-level divergence in the market.
Multiple Institutional Research Reports Cover the Stock, Market Direction Signal Emerges
After August 18, HAIXI PHARMA's share price trend clearly weakened after high-level divergence, gradually entering a bearish technical structure of shrinking volume and breakdown over the following two months. It is evident that the market action from August 18 to the present can be clearly divided into two phases, with the key node being September 17.
Observations show that on September 17, HAIXI PHARMA experienced abnormal volume-price fluctuations: the company's share price closed down 4.23% with a maximum drawdown larger than the closing decline; corresponding trading value reached HK$93.3516 million, significantly higher than previous days, reflecting intense bull-bear divergence during the session. The reason lies in the fact that on September 16, HAIXI PHARMA issued an announcement disclosing the latest data from its core innovative drug candidate HX9428's Phase I/II clinical study for treating nAMD. The announcement showed that HX9428's China Phase I clinical study for treating neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) had completed 24-week treatment data observation; the China Phase II dose expansion study is still ongoing and has obtained interim clinical data. Among them, interim data from HX9428's China Phase II dose expansion study showed that with prolonged treatment duration, mean BCVA and CST data continued to improve. As of August 14, 2026, 11 patients who completed 24 weeks of treatment showed a mean BCVA improvement of 5.4 letters from baseline, with CST decreasing by a mean of 72.5μm from baseline, with the overall efficacy trend consistent with Phase I study results. Due to the limited number of patients who have completed 24 weeks of treatment so far, the above data represent interim results and require further validation as the study progresses and sample size increases.
Following the announcement, multiple domestic institutions updated their related research reports, generally expressing high expectations for HAIXI PHARMA's innovation pipeline. Among them, brokerages including Huafu, China Merchants, and Guotai Haitong gave buy/overweight ratings centered on HX9428 clinical data, oral compliance advantages, and BD collaboration window opportunities, with some institutions setting target prices significantly above HAIXI PHARMA's current share price. However, institutions also noted that while HX9428's Phase I/II clinical trial preliminarily showed positive efficacy and safety trends, its 24-week BCVA improvement of 5.2/5.4 letters is lower in absolute terms compared to aflibercept's VIEW 1&2 2mg 52-week improvement of 7.6-10.9 letters, and the CST reduction of approximately 73μm is also smaller than aflibercept's 110-160μm. That is to say, although HX9428's safety data is acceptable, the efficacy data remains at an early stage and requires further validation as the study progresses and sample size increases, which may be one reason some capital chose to realize gains recently.
However, in reality, HAIXI PHARMA's share price changes after September 17 to some extent reflect the market's short-to-medium-term strategy shift from "imagination space pricing" back to "data realization pricing." It is worth noting that HAIXI PHARMA's recent volume-price structure merely reflects high-level turnover under announcement catalysis. The current dominant logic for HAIXI PHARMA remains the scarcity of HX9428 as a potential oral ophthalmic disease drug, which means that with more positive data readouts from core candidates in the future, HAIXI PHARMA's valuation recovery remains promising.
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