Recent analysis indicates that the June heatwave in Europe has led to a reduction in the value of local grain crops exceeding €2 billion, with France and Hungary suffering the most severe impacts.
Data from the European Grain Trade Association shows that within four weeks of the heatwave's arrival, grain production forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom were revised down by nearly 9 million tonnes.
Calculations conducted by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimate that the reduction in wheat, barley, corn, and other grain outputs corresponds to a farm-gate price loss of approximately €2.1 billion, representing about 5% of the total projected grain output value for 2025.
The European Grain Trade Association stated that when the heatwave struck, wheat in central-southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary was in a critical grain-filling stage. Spring barley was more severely affected than winter barley, as winter barley had largely completed its growth and development before the high temperatures arrived.
Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, with temperatures 3 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 average. France saw peak temperatures exceed 43 degrees Celsius, while Hungary's peak surpassed 40 degrees.
Benoît Mello, who operates a 300-hectare organic farm in the Ain department of eastern France cultivating grains and raising beef cattle, stated he has been taking measures for a decade to make his farm more resilient to increasingly hot and dry conditions.
"For ten years, I have been continuously transforming the farm, using cover crops, crop rotation, and selecting varieties adapted to hot and dry environments to enhance its resilience," he said.
"But with temperatures exceeding 38 degrees Celsius for several consecutive weeks, all efforts have had limited effect. I expect at least a 50% reduction in some crops, and for crops like soybeans, losses could reach 70%. We are no longer on the verge of collapse; this is the current reality."
In the European grain production reduction estimates, corn accounts for about half of the decrease. Corn is primarily used for livestock feed, and crops in France and Hungary were hit by high temperatures during the critical pollination period. The European Grain Trade Association has revised down the corn production forecast for the EU and UK from 57.2 million tonnes to 52.7 million tonnes.
In years of poor harvests, the EU is a net importer of corn, and this production shortfall is likely to increase its import demand for corn from suppliers such as Ukraine and Brazil.
With France's grain harvest declining, the volume of wheat available for export to North and West Africa may shrink; in the coming months, the pressure from rising feed costs will also gradually be passed on to the livestock and poultry farming industry.
The scale of grain production loss in France accounts for nearly half of the total loss, with the production forecast revised down by 4.1 million tonnes, translating to a loss of approximately €891 million at current prices.
The vast majority of France's reduction comes from corn, with the corn production forecast lowered by 3.35 million tonnes to 9.4 million tonnes, a figure even lower than the output during the severe drought of 2022.
Hungary ranks second in terms of impact severity, with grain production forecasts revised down by 2.4 million tonnes, representing a value loss of about €444 million; Spain's production was reduced by 1.4 million tonnes, with a loss of €276 million; Germany's downward revision was of a similar scale, corresponding to a value loss of €233 million.
The situation for Hungarian farmers may worsen further: nearing the harvest season, low-priced grain from the Black Sea region is suppressing market conditions, leading to lower domestic purchase prices for farmers. Hungarian farmers must bear the losses from reduced yields and cannot, like some French farmers, rely on price increases to partially offset their losses.
Tom Lancaster, a land, food, and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, stated, "This disaster will directly impact farmers' incomes and simultaneously weaken Europe's food security."
The ECIU's estimate refers to the market value of crops corresponding to the downward revision in harvest expectations, not the loss of farm profits. Some growers whose crops survived may be able to offset losses through rising grain prices, but other farmers may have already forward-sold their grain before the price increases.
Upward revisions to harvest expectations in Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland narrowed the net loss in the expected crop output value for Europe to approximately €1.79 billion. Under different price assumption scenarios, this calculation yields a total crop loss value range of €2 billion to €2.3 billion.
This agricultural loss occurs as EU member state governments are negotiating the future direction of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy.
Theo Packer, a senior policy officer at the European Environment Bureau, noted that related subsidies are not being used to enhance agriculture's resilience to climate change but instead "continue to fund various harmful production methods, which are precisely the drivers of such climate disasters, creating a costly and unsustainable vicious cycle."
The ECIU's calculation represents the market value of crops corresponding to the production reduction, not equivalent to farmers' profit losses. With upward revisions in Bulgaria, Romania, Italy, and Finland, the net loss in expected European crop output value has decreased to €1.79 billion, with a total loss valuation range of €2-2.3 billion. As the EU currently discusses reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy, industry insiders criticize existing farm subsidies for failing to help improve climate resilience and instead encouraging farming practices that exacerbate the climate crisis, forming a vicious cycle.
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