Mainland property stocks rally on supply gap outlook and policy shift

Stock News11:51

Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks are trading firmly higher on Wednesday, with several names climbing sharply in morning deals. SUNAC (01918) rallied 5.74% to HK$0.645, RONSHINECHINA (03301) rose 4.62% to HK$0.068, CHINA VANKE (02202) gained 4.04% to HK$2.445, and COUNTRY GARDEN (02007) edged up 2.87% to HK$0.179, mirroring a broad uptick across the sector.

Market sentiment has been buoyed by a key policy address delivered on September 18 at the State Council Information Office's press conference on the 15th Five-Year Plan for housing and urban-rural development. Officials highlighted two major structural shifts reshaping the property market: the supply-demand balance has fundamentally changed, and the share of second-hand home transactions in total sales has climbed from 27% in 2020 to 46% in 2025, reaching 52% in the first eight months of 2026 — a clear sign that the market has entered an era of existing housing stock.

Adding to the positive tone, a newly revised regulation on the housing provident fund officially took effect on September 20. The reform marks a strategic pivot for the system, expanding its role from primarily assisting home purchases to now covering the full-spectrum of housing consumption — including buying, renting, renovation, and maintenance — thereby broadening its inclusive coverage across more households.

Goldman Sachs has invited Dr. Ding Zuyu, Chairman of Shanghai Purui Digital Technology Co., Ltd. and President of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, as the third speaker in its 2026 China Property Expert Call Series. Dr. Ding projects that the near-term property supply will remain roughly balanced, as developers rushed to secure construction and presale permits ahead of the August 28 deadline. However, he anticipates a notable supply shortage lasting 12 to 18 months starting in March 2027, driven by the ongoing shift in sales models, followed by a gradual stabilization phase of approximately two years afterward.

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