According to the latest research report from JPMorgan, Amgen (AMGN.US) presented data over the weekend at the ESMO conference showing that Imdelltra's first-line maintenance treatment results are "impressive," potentially supporting the drug's expansion into earlier treatment lines and positioning it as a potential $5 billion blockbuster.
However, the firm maintained its "Neutral" rating with a price target of $350, which is below the current stock price of approximately $439.
How strong is the data? Overall survival HR of 0.42, progression-free survival more than tripled
At the weekend's European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting, Amgen released results from the DeLLphi-305 Phase III trial. In the extensively pre-treated small cell lung cancer patient population, which is widely recognized as "difficult to treat," patients receiving Imdelltra combined with AstraZeneca's Imfinzi achieved a median overall survival (mOS) of 21.1 months, compared to only 12.7 months for the Imfinzi-alone group, with a hazard ratio (HR) for death as low as 0.42.
Even more striking is the median progression-free survival (mPFS): 7.4 months for the combination group versus only 1.9 months for the monotherapy group, representing more than a threefold improvement. JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott stated directly that the magnitude of this benefit "supports Imdelltra playing an important role in earlier treatment lines." Amgen plans to submit this data to the U.S. FDA in the near term. Given the magnitude of the efficacy, JPMorgan believes it would be "no surprise" if the data were incorporated into NCCN and other treatment guidelines before full approval is obtained.
Three Major Engines: Doubling of Patient Population, 2.5x Longer Treatment Duration, Improved Compliance
JPMorgan estimates that Imdelltra's advancement into first-line treatment will bring a triple amplification effect. First, expansion of the target population. There are approximately 23,000 first-line small cell lung cancer patients in the U.S., significantly higher than the approximately 14,000 in the second-line setting, and this population will continue to grow as patient survival extends.
Second, significantly longer treatment duration. The median treatment duration in DeLLphi-305 is approximately 2.5 times that of second-line use, meaning a longer revenue cycle per patient. Third, improved accessibility and compliance. Previously, the first two infusions required 22-24 hours of monitoring, which has now been reduced to 6-8 hours; for first-line maintenance treatment, it has been further reduced to 1-2 hours. Combined with a lower incidence of adverse reactions, this will directly translate into higher penetration rates.
With all three factors combined, JPMorgan views Imdelltra as a potential $5 billion-plus product for Amgen and is optimistic about its "upside potential" relative to market consensus expectations.
Behind the Caution: Neutral Rating and Inverted Price Target
Despite clear highlights in the pipeline, JPMorgan maintained its "Neutral" rating on Amgen with a price target of $350 — approximately 20% below the October 23 closing price of $439.26. This cautious stance continues the firm's rating trajectory over the past two years: since January 2024 (target $290), October 2024 (target $300), and August 2026 (target $350), the rating has never been upgraded to "Overweight," and price target increases have significantly lagged actual stock price gains.
Small cell lung cancer is known as the "king of cancers," characterized by rapid progression and poor prognosis, with first-line standard regimens long dominated by PD-L1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy. Imdelltra, as a bispecific T-cell engager, brings an incremental option to this long-standing "drug-deficient" area with its first-line maintenance data. For investors, the signal from this research report is clear: a good drug does not necessarily equal a good entry point. Whether the realization of Imdelltra's prospects can offset Amgen's concerns regarding patent cliffs, competitive pressures, and overall pipeline returns will be key to determining its valuation trajectory.
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