Abstract
Manhattan Associates will report fourth-quarter results on January 27, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes the latest quarter’s actuals and management’s prior guidance to frame revenue, margin, and EPS expectations, while highlighting cloud subscription trends and what analysts are watching into the print.Market Forecast
Based on the latest aggregated forecasts, Manhattan Associates’ current quarter revenue is expected at $0.27 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 4.90%, with forecast EPS of $1.12 and EBIT of $0.09 billion; the company’s margin profile is projected to remain healthy, though specific gross margin and net margin guidance has not been disclosed in consensus. Management’s segment framework continues to emphasize the transition toward cloud subscription, with investors focused on revenue quality and recurring mix.Main business highlights point to services and cloud subscriptions as the primary revenue engines this quarter, consistent with the trajectory from the prior report. Cloud subscription remains the most promising growth vector, supported by sustained demand from warehouse management and supply chain execution workloads among large retailers and consumer brands.
Last Quarter Review
In the last reported quarter, Manhattan Associates delivered revenue of $0.28 billion, a gross profit margin of 56.56%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $58.63 million, a net profit margin of 21.26%, and adjusted EPS of $1.36, with year-over-year growth of 0.74% for EPS. Net profit rose quarter-on-quarter by 3.26%, reflecting strong operating leverage and disciplined cost control into seasonally higher services activity.The company’s business mix was anchored by services at $133.01 million and cloud subscriptions at $104.85 million, complemented by maintenance at $30.49 million, hardware and other at $6.09 million, and software licenses at $1.36 million. The momentum in cloud subscription and services revenue underpinned recurring revenue visibility and supported robust margins.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Services and platform deployments anchoring near-term revenue
Services remains the largest revenue contributor, with the prior quarter registering $133.01 million. The cadence of implementation services is a function of backlog conversion, resource availability, and customer go-lives across warehouse management, transportation management, and omnichannel fulfillment. Into this quarter, revenue recognition from ongoing deployments should sustain a solid baseline given the breadth of large enterprise rollouts following multi-site and multi-region programs. While services margins can be lower than software, the company’s blended gross margin of 56.56% last quarter signals robust project execution and a favorable mix, helped by premium-rate advisory and modernization work. The primary swing factor for services revenue this quarter will be project timing and any customer deferrals tied to budget resets or peak-season stabilization windows, though the consensus revenue trajectory of $0.27 billion suggests manageable volatility and an intact conversion cycle.Most promising business: Cloud subscription compounding recurring mix and operating leverage
Cloud subscription generated $104.85 million last quarter and is positioned as the structural growth engine as customers migrate from perpetual licenses to SaaS. This shift expands lifetime value through steady ARR growth and reduces revenue lumpiness associated with on-premise license deals. For the current quarter, recurring revenue arithmetic is favorable: installed module expansion, cross-sell into transportation and order management, and seat or capacity upsells from volume growth post-holiday peak all support subscription durability. Operating leverage from cloud at scale also supports EBIT resilience, as suggested by the projected EBIT of $0.09 billion on $0.27 billion of revenue. Investors are watching net retention and attach rates to gauge sustainability, and the year-over-year revenue growth forecast of 4.90% implies moderation from earlier high-teens phases consistent with a larger base. A higher subscription mix tends to buoy gross margin over time, offsetting variability in services and hardware.Key stock price drivers this quarter: Margin cadence, ARR signals, and deal timing
Three factors are likely to drive the share price reaction around results. Margin cadence matters because the group’s last quarter gross margin of 56.56% and net margin of 21.26% set a high-quality benchmark; any upside or downside around services utilization, cloud infrastructure costs, or support expenses will influence EPS relative to the $1.12 forecast. Annualized recurring revenue and net retention metrics are the cleanest indicators of demand quality for cloud, and commentary on renewal cycles, contract durations, and enterprise expansions will shape the outlook for 2026 ARR growth. Deal timing remains a tactical variable: while perpetual license revenue is already a small slice at $1.36 million last quarter, timing of large cloud contracts and multi-module expansions can still skew quarterly optics; evidence of a steady pipeline conversion should support confidence in revenue visibility even if reported growth moderates to mid-single digits.Analyst Opinions
The balance of recent institutional commentary tilts positive, with the majority highlighting cloud subscription momentum and defensible margins as near-term supports for revenue and EPS. The consensus skew reflects expectations for stable demand from retail and logistics customers, a resilient pipeline of warehouse and omnichannel projects, and favorable operating leverage from a growing recurring revenue base. Analysts also emphasize that the company’s prior quarter outperformance versus estimates—revenue of $0.28 billion against a $0.27 billion consensus and adjusted EPS of $1.36 versus a $1.18–$1.20 range—establishes a constructive setup for the current quarter, where the bar is set at $0.27 billion of revenue and $1.12 EPS.Positive institutional views underscore three points that inform the majority perspective. First, subscription mix expansion is expected to continue, improving revenue quality and smoothing seasonal variability. Second, the EBIT forecast of $0.09 billion on revenue of $0.27 billion suggests healthy profitability despite investment in go-to-market and R&D, which supports a durable margin profile. Third, the services engine remains active as complex, multi-site deployments transition to steady-state phases that open incremental expansion opportunities for transportation and order orchestration, underpinning cross-sell. As a result, the majority of analysts see near-term upside skew if subscription growth and services utilization hold, even if headline revenue growth moderates to mid-single digits.
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