According to a research report on the allocation and use of fiscal funds for higher education jointly released by the Financial and Economic Committee, the Education, Science, Culture, and Public Health Committee, and the Budgetary Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress, the college-age population is facing a development trend characterized by a "rapid rise—brief plateau—sharp decline." The size of the student population is projected to peak around 2032, followed by a substantial decrease around 2040.
Projections indicate that the higher education-age population will be approximately 61.52 million in 2040, a reduction of 15.5 million from the 77.02 million recorded in 2025, representing a 20.1% decline. By 2050, this figure is expected to drop further to 47.82 million, with the decline rate expanding to 37.9%.
Starting in 2035, the eligible-age population will enter a phase of sustained decline, with the rate of decrease widening each year. By 2040, the annual growth rate is forecasted to plummet to -12.57%.
This demographic shift will intensify pressure on university admissions, potentially leading to enrollment difficulties for some regional institutions and universities, which may face challenges such as scaling back their operations.
However, before 2035, the eligible-age population is still expected to rise steadily, with a peak of around 90 million. This period is identified as a "golden decade" for enhancing the quality, expanding the capacity, and optimizing the layout of higher education, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" period being particularly crucial.
Several universities have explicitly mentioned this opportunity in their development plans. Institutions such as Henan University of Economics and Law and Pingdingshan University have emphasized the need to seize this strategic window to advance their development.
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