Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that the current AI-driven memory super cycle is exhibiting strong sustainability. The disclosure of the IPO prospectus by domestic company ChangXin Technology signals a step closer to a successful listing on the STAR Market, which is expected to drive simultaneous benefits for domestic semiconductor equipment and material companies related to the memory industry. Investment considerations can be approached from two angles: ① Focus on semiconductor equipment/material companies with a high proportion of revenue derived from the memory industry chain; ② Consider semiconductor equipment/material companies strongly linked to the memory chain that have the potential to achieve breakthroughs in domestic substitution from zero to one in their future operations. The main views of Guotai Haitong are as follows:
The introduction of NVIDIA's inference context memory storage platform further drives the growth of memory capacity. NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang delivered a speech at CES 2026, introducing NVIDIA's next-generation AI platform, Rubin, which is the first AI platform employing extreme co-design and integrating six chips, and is now in full mass production. The Rubin platform components are built outwards from the data center, encompassing the Rubin GPU, Vera CPU, NVLink 6, Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, ConnectX-9 SuperNIC, and BlueField-4 DPU. Jensen Huang introduced the AI-native storage platform; the NVIDIA inference context memory storage platform is an AI-native key-value (KV) caching layer that enhances long-context inference performance, achieving a 5x increase in tokens per second, a 5x improvement in total cost of ownership (TCO) performance, and a 5x boost in energy efficiency.
A significant quarter-on-quarter increase in NAND and DRAM contract prices is anticipated for Q1 2026. According to the latest forecast from TrendForce, the global server market is expected to reach a growth peak in 2026, driving demand for Enterprise SSDs, which is anticipated to become the largest application for NAND Flash. However, due to limited supplier capacity and strategies prioritizing profitability and controlling shipments, the supply tightness is deepening, pushing up Enterprise SSD prices. General-purpose DRAM contract prices are forecast to increase by 55%-60% QoQ in Q1 2026, while NAND prices are expected to rise by 33%-38% QoQ.
Should ChangXin achieve a successful listing on the STAR Market, it is expected to further expand its capital expenditures. On December 30, 2025, ChangXin Technology disclosed its prospectus and responses to the first and second rounds of pre-review inquiries. The company is China's largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively positioned integrated DRAM design and manufacturer. It has achieved mass production from its first-generation to its fourth-generation process technology platforms, and completed product coverage and iteration from DDR4 and LPDDR4X to DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X. Currently, the company operates three 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing. In 2022, 2023, 2024, and H1 2025, cash paid for the purchase of fixed assets and other long-term assets amounted to RMB 35.431 billion, RMB 43.658 billion, RMB 71.230 billion, and RMB 24.115 billion, respectively. The value of fixed assets stood at RMB 68.016 billion, RMB 84.452 billion, RMB 153.132 billion, and RMB 171.593 billion for the same periods. The company aims to raise RMB 29.5 billion through this IPO issuance.
Risk warnings include: slower-than-expected development of AI applications, lower-than-expected return on investment for CSP cloud providers leading to a decline in capital expenditures, and changes in memory supply and demand dynamics.
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