Abstract
Vornado Realty Trust will report fiscal results on February 09, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS guidance for signs of stabilization in New York office and street retail.
Market Forecast
Consensus tracking suggests a muted near-term trend for Vornado Realty Trust, with this quarter’s revenue estimated at $442.97 million, implying a forecast year-over-year change of -1.00%. Forecasts point to an EBIT estimate of $56.54 million with an expected year-over-year decline of 2.25%, and an EPS estimate of $0.01 with a projected year-over-year rise of 120.00%. Street modeling implies stable-to-soft unit economics; where disclosed, the company’s model points to flat-to-down gross profit margin and a stable net margin, but specific YoY comparisons are limited.
Revenue concentration remains anchored in rent, supported by ancillary fees and other income. The main business outlook highlights steady leasing progress offset by lingering concessions and free rent that constrain rent spreads this quarter. The most promising area is higher-quality Midtown Manhattan office and mixed-use assets, where management continues to focus leasing and capital recycling; segment-level revenue and YoY comparisons are not disclosed in forecasts, but rent remains the dominant revenue line item.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Vornado Realty Trust reported revenue of $453.70 million, a gross profit margin of 49.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $27.12 million, a net profit margin of 5.70%, and adjusted EPS of $0.06; the quarter’s net profit fell -96.43% quarter-on-quarter based on tool-calculated change.
One notable highlight was the revenue outperformance versus internal tracking, coming in $17.70 million above the pre-announced estimate, while adjusted EPS of $0.06 exceeded internal modeling by $0.10. The main business mix remained dominated by rent at $389.10 million, supplemented by fees and other income at $64.60 million; year-over-year disaggregation by segment was not provided.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business dynamics: Rent-driven office and retail cash flows
Vornado Realty Trust’s main revenue driver is rent, which last quarter accounted for $389.10 million of total revenue. Into the current quarter, the company’s revenue estimate of $442.97 million implies a slight sequential moderation from the prior quarter’s reported $453.70 million. Given the net profit margin last quarter at 5.70%, investors will look for signs that operating efficiency and controllable expenses can offset leasing concessions and elevated operating costs. Portfolio leasing pace and cash rent roll-down from expiring above-market leases remain key variables for this quarter’s revenue trajectory, while occupancy stabilization in core Midtown corridors could incrementally support top line and NOI run-rate.
Most promising business: High-quality Midtown assets with leasing catalysts
Management emphasis on high-quality Manhattan office and mixed-use properties positions this cluster as the focal point for incremental growth. While the forecast dataset does not break out revenue by submarket, the continued concentration of rent within flagship assets suggests that any improvement in leasing spreads, occupancy, or reduction in rent-free periods in these properties would disproportionately benefit consolidated revenue and EBIT. The earnings model projects EBIT at $56.54 million this quarter, and execution on leasing initiatives or realizing signed-not-opened leases would be the chief path to mitigating the forecast YoY EBIT decline of 2.25%. The visibility of leasing pipelines and potential commencement schedules will be decisive for margin durability over the next few quarters.
Key share-price drivers: Margin trajectory and capital market conditions
This quarter’s share-price drivers revolve around margin stability, leasing metrics, and external capital market dynamics. On margins, investors will parse gross profit margin behavior relative to last quarter’s 49.17% level; any indication of improved operating leverage from lower energy, tax, or maintenance inputs could help EPS resilience even as revenue trends remain flat-to-down. Leasing disclosures—renewal rates, new lease spreads, and signed-but-not-commenced rent—will act as a real-time gauge of underlying demand and influence forward NOI expectations. Finally, broader financing conditions matter; cap rates and credit spreads directly affect the company’s balance sheet flexibility and redevelopment economics, shaping how investors handicap the sustainability of the dividend and the pace of asset repositioning.
Analyst Opinions
Analyst commentary over the past six months has tilted more cautious than bullish, with a majority emphasizing subdued leasing demand, modest negative rent reversion risk on expirations, and a preference to await clearer signs of occupancy gains before turning constructive. Several well-followed sell-side teams have framed the next print as a “show-me” quarter for office fundamentals in Manhattan, highlighting sensitivity to concessions and free rent even as tour activity improves. The prevailing view expects limited upside versus consensus on revenue and EBIT, while EPS could track close to the $0.01 mark unless operating expenses surprise to the downside. Against this backdrop, sentiment skews guarded, focused on incremental updates to leasing pipelines, realized rent commencements, and commentary on capital allocation priorities through 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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