Market analyst Yan Lin from Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd. provides peanut market analysis.
**Executive Summary**: Recent shipment volumes from production areas remain limited with periodic concentrated supplies. Overall, most peanuts have yet to be harvested, with expectations for mid-to-late September. Recent new peanut price volatility has narrowed.
**Spring Peanuts Maintain Moderate Market Supply**
Currently, new peanut shipment volumes from Henan production areas remain dispersed. Early September weather forecasts indicate continued rainy conditions. For Baisha variety production areas, spring peanut volumes in Zhumadian region have decreased significantly, while Nanyang and Pingdingshan areas still have limited unharvested supplies or goods with slow drying due to rainy weather. Wheat-stubble peanuts require at least two more weeks before market entry. Regarding mixed variety peanuts, garlic-stubble peanuts in Kaifeng and Shangqiu have not been concentrated harvested yet, with expectations for increased harvesting next week, though weather conditions require continued monitoring.
In Shandong region, only limited early peanut supplies are available from parts of Heze, Tengzhou, Ningyang, and individual areas in Linyi. Most regions expect gradual harvesting after mid-September. In Jiangsu's Lianyungang area, new peanuts are being gradually harvested, with wheat-stubble varieties requiring over two more weeks. Hebei's Daming region currently has limited new peanut market entry, while Tangshan 308 peanuts are being progressively harvested and dried, and Shenzhou region continues to monitor conditions. Liaoning production areas expect gradual harvesting after mid-September, while Jilin production areas anticipate progressive harvesting in late September.
**Price Volatility Range Narrows**
Entering September, spring peanut market volumes in some areas have remained relatively stable. Simultaneously, overall planting volumes of Baisha spring rice in Henan region were limited, combined with periodic rainy weather, resulting in dispersed supply volumes and narrowed overall price fluctuation ranges. During periods of temporary supply shortages, prices experienced modest rebounds. However, downstream market purchasing remains cautious, with limited enthusiasm for high-price procurement and unclear Mid-Autumn Festival stocking signals. As of September 3rd, Zhumadian spring peanut commodity rice average purchase price referenced 8,700 yuan/ton, with 8-screen refined rice loading price referenced at 9,650 yuan/ton, declining 200 yuan/ton from early month levels. Mixed commodity rice averaged 8,200 yuan/ton, increasing 50 yuan/ton from early month. Fuxin area Baisha commodity rice aged stock purchase referenced 7,450 yuan/ton, with virtually no actual transactions.
**Limited Oil Factory New Season Raw Material Procurement, Wholesale Markets Purchase as Needed**
Currently, individual Kaifeng factories and some local Linyi oil mills are moderately purchasing new season raw materials, with oil-grade rice transaction prices ranging 7,000-7,700 yuan/ton depending on quality specifications. Commodity rice arrivals remain limited. Kaifeng factories receive approximately 10 truck loads daily, while local Linyi oil mills receive minimal volumes for as-needed purchasing, averaging 1-3 truck loads daily. Most oil mills remain in observation mode. In wholesale markets, following recent new peanut market entry, downstream entities are purchasing moderately, though primarily for essential needs with cautious high-price procurement. Mid-Autumn Festival effects have not yet materialized, with continued observation as the primary stance.
**Overall Assessment**: Before large-scale concentrated market entry of new peanuts from Henan wheat-stubble, Shandong region, and Northeast areas, production area overall supply exhibits periodic and dispersed characteristics. Demand-side support remains limited. Over the next week, Baisha peanut overall supply volumes are expected to remain manageable, while mixed new peanut market entry pace may gradually accelerate. This week's Baisha peanut purchase prices are expected to range 4.20-4.50 yuan/jin with limited volatility, priced according to quality and moisture content. Attention should focus on downstream market stocking initiation before Mid-Autumn Festival.
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