AT&T 2.0 - Why I Continue To Be A Bull

seekingalpha2021-03-15

Summary AT&T has clearly ended its years of growth through acquisition and is now pivoting towards enhancing existing assets and paying down debt. The market still values the company as a debt laden ...

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KW1
2021-03-15
KW1
Good
ALT
2021-03-15
ALT
Please like and comment
- Jazling:
  Comment back Pls
qinx
2021-03-15
qinx
Nice
- Jazling:
  Ok
- ianch:
  Can reSpond to my comment too thks?
- ALT:
  Ok

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAT&T 2.0 - Why I Continue To Be A Bull\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-15 15:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413813-att-stock-attractive-entry-point-investor-day><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAT&T has clearly ended its years of growth through acquisition and is now pivoting towards enhancing existing assets and paying down debt.\nThe market still values the company as a debt laden ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413813-att-stock-attractive-entry-point-investor-day\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"T","symbol_name":"美国电话电报","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4413813-att-stock-attractive-entry-point-investor-day","article_id":"1138186708","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138186708","pubTimestamp":1615792843,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nAT&T has clearly ended its years of growth through acquisition and is now pivoting towards ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"T":"美国电话电报"},"translate_title":"AT&T 2.0--为什么我仍然是一个公牛","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"T":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAT&T has clearly ended its years of growth through acquisition and is now pivoting towards enhancing existing assets and paying down debt.\nThe market still values the company as a debt laden telecommunications operations and not a growing media company.\nInvestors should not be leery of the company's 7%+ dividend yield as management is focused on maintaining this highly compelling dividend.\nThere is an attractive entry point today, as shares continue to trade at a steep discount to other media companies.\n\nAT&T Inc. (T) gave an in-depth update to the market last week with their Investor Day Conference. This update showcased how AT&T is using 2021 to transform from a telecommunications company to a media company. As this shift takes place, the market will adjust the company's valuation multiples accordingly, resulting in outsized returns for investors. In the meantime, shareholders are well compensated to wait with a dividend yield above 7% that's supported by strong cash flows from the business.\nIntroduction\nAT&T Inc. has been a perennial favorite for dividend focused investors for years. Unfortunately, it has also been a source of frustration for investors as investing in the company barely generated any returns over the past five years compared to a more than 100% return for the S&P 500 (see table below). While the relative performance difference has turned many income oriented investors away from AT&T, the company is at a pivotal turning point that has the potential to generate outsized returns for years to come. For this reason, we have listed AT&T as one of our top investments for 2021 in our article \"Four Dividend Dominators for 2021 - Companies With More Than 70% Upside\".\n2020 Total Returns for AT&T and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF\nData by YCharts\nRecent updates from management, including early streaming numbers for January and February as well as a strategic sale, show just how dramatically the company has changed. These updates are in line with our expectations and are ahead of the timeline we devised at the beginning of the year. With the strong update from the company's Investor Day at the end of last week, we are updating our view of why this Dividend Dominator belongs in portfolios today.\nAT&T's Plans for Prudent, Disciplined Growth\nSource: AT&T Investor Day Presentation, March 12, 2021.\nRationalizing Businesses and Paying Down Debt\nIn our opinion, the most important thing for investors to note is that today's AT&T is nothing like the AT&T from only a few years ago. We say this for three main reasons:\n\nLeadership Change- Nearly one year ago AT&T announced the retiring of then CEO Randall Stephenson with the company's COO, John Stankey, replacing him at the start of Q3 2020. Mr. Stephenson had overseen an aggressive acquisition spree for the company that included the notable acquisitions of DirecTV and Time Warner. While these changes had the potential to shift the company from a telecommunications company to a media company, the key was to focus on making these properties a core facet of AT&T's business. By changing leadership, the company sent two strong messages. First, that the spree of major acquisitions is over for the company. Secondly, by moving the company's COO into the CEO role, it is very clear that integration and rationalization is paramount for the company.\n\nAT&T's Recently Anointed CEO - John Stankey\nSource: AT&T Annual Report.\n\nChanged Growth Model- Since Mr. Stankey has become the CEO, discussions from management have shifted notably. The conversation is clearly about how to enhance the existing assets in AT&T's portfolio, not growing the portfolio of the company's assets. This has manifested most clearly in the rollout of the company's premier streaming service, HBO Max, which was delivered across all of the company's mediums (TV, Mobile, Internet) as well as over third party devices and networks.\nFocus on Balance Sheet and Dividend- Another notable shift, and one that is very important to us, is a renewed focused on reducing debt and supporting the dividend. While AT&T is now an impressive media company, the cost has put a significant burden on the company's balance sheet. We are happy to hear the continued plans to reduce the company's debt over the long term through cash flows and the sales of non-core assets. Additionally, the company's continued focus on maintaining the dividend at current levels lets us \"not worry\" about the company's highly attractive 7%+ dividend yield.\n\nIn recent weeks, investors saw an early benefit from this new approach with theannounced spinoffof the company's U.S. DirecTV and U.S. Video businesses. This was a very well structured deal in which AT&T will receive roughly $8 billion in proceeds and maintain a 70% ownership in the new company, with TPG owning the other 30%. We like this deal for a number or reasons. First, the DirecTV business has generated roughly $4 billion per year in recent years. AT&T is receiving approximately two years worth of cash flow for \"selling\" a 30% stake in this business. Secondly, this sale lets AT&T focus on its fiber and 5G businesses, rather than the costly process of maintaining a large network of satellites. Third, the company is using these proceeds to paydown debt. This is something that is crucial as the current debt load has the potential to create problems when interest rates normalize.\nNew DirecTV and Video Spinoff Terms\nSource: AT&T Investor Update, February 25, 2021.\nIn the company's Investor Day presentation, this theme continued. The company made it clear that their main focus is on its core businesses of connectivity, media, and content. As part of their review, management expects to identify other non-core assets to sell. For 2021, this should generate another roughly $2 billion in proceeds to further reduce debt.\nSource: AT&T Investor Day Presentation, March 12, 2021.\nMedia Company, Not Just a Telecommunications Company\nOne main area of focus for AT&T is its media business. This consists of two main parts, their proprietary streaming platform and the award winning content they create. This is a notable change for a company that only a few years ago didn't have any business in this arena.\nStreaming\nThe main focus for AT&T has been the successful launch and growth of the HBO Max streaming platform. Interestingly, the level of subscribers for HBO had been steadily declining until the launch of HBO Max last year. Shockingly, the goal of having 40 million U.S. subscribers for HBO & HBO Max by the end of 2022 was easily surpassed by the end of 2020. Now the company is targeting 120 million to 150 million subscribers by the end of 2025, another target that may be easily reached ahead of schedule.\nLaunching HBO Max Reversed the Declining Subscriber Base\nSource: AT&T Investor Day Presentation, March 12, 2021.\nWhile any new streaming service with high quality content, strong growth can be expected in the early months. Despite the initial \"pop\", we feel HBO Max still has a number of catalysts on the horizon. AT&T is continuing to add the service to new networks and devices in the U.S., such as Cox Communications set-top boxes this past week. Outside of the U.S. the company plans to expand to 39 new markets by the end of the second quarter and an additional 21 markets in the second half of this year.\nStories\nOn the content front, AT&T's Warner Media group also excels. In addition to its strong catalogue of award winning shows and movies, the company continues to produce content that is in high demand and often wins critical acclaim. Looking back on the past couple of months, the studio's release of Wonder Woman 1984 had the best box office opening release in the Pandemic Era. The recently launched Tom & Jerry had the second best box office opening release andt hrough HBO Max, it is impressive that Warner Media has the top two opening movie releases during this time.\nNotable Recent Releases From Warner Media\nSource: AT&T Investor Day Presentation, March 12, 2021.\nWarner Media also continues to build the impressive library of content for subscribers to HBO Max. In March alone, the company plans to add more than 100 shows and movies, many of which are classics or continue to be very popular with subscribers. It's no wonder that in just the month of February HBO Max saw more than 2.2 million downloads. From a financial perspective, if 50% of the total downloads represents new subscribers, this would translate to an additional $16.5 million in monthly recurring revenue.\nNetwork\nTo deliver all this great content and AT&T's streaming service is key. The company has the leading data and voice network in the U.S. that has been awarded both the nation's best and largest network. True to form, this is not sufficient for management. The company plans to continue to build and enhance the network to support ever increasing needs from their customers. One compelling set of metrics that the company is building towards is how much data will be needed by 2025.AT&T estimates that the average home will go from 13 connected devices today to 32. On the streaming front, the average consumer will go from three hours to five hours - mostly in 4k definition. On the mobile front, the data usage will go from 11 gigabytes to 50 gigabytes per month.\nAT&T's Network is Positioned to Meet Customer Needs in Every Aspect\nSource: AT&T Investor Day Presentation, March 12, 2021.\nPutting this together, this means that while the company's network today is leading the industry, it will be woefully undersized for the demands of consumers in a few short years. As a result, the company expects to continue to invest in the network through both fiber and 5G to support the growing demand.\nKey Thought on the Shift to a Media Company\nClearly AT&T has made significant changes to its business that make it no longer just a national telecommunications business. This leads into our strong bull case for the company. Our main view for AT&T's stock is that it will eventually be revalued as a media company. This should result in significant multiple expansion, which in turn should yield a significantly higher share price. We will highlight later on how this represents potential for shareholders in the Valuation section.\n5G Costs and Opportunities\nOne wild card for AT&T is the cost to upgrade its leading network to the new 5G standard for wireless. In order to maintain the mantle of the nation's largest and best network, this is a necessary expense. So while the sale of non-core assets will generate ancillary cash flow for the company, the buildout of 5G represents a significant cost. For 2021 alone, the company estimates that this cost will be approximately $21 billion for both their 5G and Fiber networks. Fortunately, the focus is more on \"densification\", rather than expanding into new regions. This should translate to better customer experience and lower churn rates for AT&T.\nHigh Level Guidance for 2021\nSource: AT&T Investor Day Presentation, March 12, 2021.\nIf AT&T is able to enhance its existing network to support the future data needs of consumers and businesses, this could also be an attractive growth engine for the company. Further, the company has the potential to bundle their data network with HBO Max, creating a strong proposition for consumers to move to AT&T's network.\nValuation\nLooking at AT&T overall, we are very bullish on the company's prospects for investors. Given how tough 2020 was for investors, it's not surprising how the company's shares have performed. As we set our views for 2021, we feel that this is a year in which the markets will start to acknowledge AT&T's shift from a telecommunications company to a modern media company.\nP/E-Based Valuation\nOne method that we use to value AT&T is based on its earnings. The popular price to earnings or P/E ratio can readily apply here. For this analysis, we prefer to use a sum-of-the-parts calculation. Since AT&T is clearly two companies, we attribute two P/E multiples to the business to arrive at a fair valuation. For the traditional Communications side of the business, we attribute a P/E multiple of 10x earnings, which is in line with their major competitor Verizon and significantly lower that T-Mobile's multiple. For the media side, we look chose to use a multiple close to Netflix's of 50x earnings. (If we blended the multiple for Netflix, Disney, Amazon, and Apple, the value would be much higher).\n2020 Supplemental Segment Reconciliation\nSource: AT&T Inc. Q4 2020 Investor Briefing.\nUsing a split of 80% communications and 20% media, we arrive at a blended P/E/ multiple of 18x earnings for AT&T. Interestingly, when we look at the sector media P/E multiple for AT&T, the value is roughly the same. Given that AT&T has a current P/E multiple at half that level, we have set a price target of $50 per share to bring the company in line with the sector's median value.\nAT&T's Current P/E vs. Sector Median\nSource: Seeking Alpha.\nBook Value\nAnother metric that we use for AT&T is book value per share. Given that the business is asset heavy, a book value based approach also would be prudent. On this level, AT&T is trading near its lowest level in years. This could be due to the large amount of debt on the company's balance sheet, as well as the impact the Pandemic has had on their business. Fortunately, both areas are improving:\n\nEnd of Pandemic:As noted earlier, with the end to the Pandemic potentially months away, a number of the business line impacted should see a rebound close to pre-pandemic levels. This means strong gains in both roaming and data fees in Communications and a dramatic increase in movie theater revenues for Warner Media.\nReduction of Debt:Management has continued to focus on using cash flows to pay down debt faster and, when possible, restructure debt into more attractive terms. Additionally, if management ultimately decides to sell the DirecTV business, the proceeds could go a long way in reducing the company's debt.\n\nWe feel that the general improvement in conditions, as well as the gains in these two areas would bring the company's valuation based on book value back to the historic multiple of 2x or greater. Using this approach, we also arrive at a valuation of nearly $50 per share.\nAT&T's Historic Book Value Per Share\nData by YCharts\nDividend Approach\nUndeniably, AT&T is one of the most popular dividend stocks in the marketplace today. Despite having strong cash flows, a payout ratio in the 50s, and management's continued focus on supporting the dividend, it has one of the highest yields in the marketplace today. Currently, AT&T yields 7.0%, which is notably higher than most of its peers. Comparatively, Verizon, which is a decent proxy for AT&T from a dividend standpoint, yields 4.5% today. If AT&T's share price were to appreciate to the upper $40s, the company would have the same yield as Verizon.\nOne could argue that this approach highlights the potential for AT&T to cut its dividend to levels that are in line with Verizon's, instead of depending on share price appreciation. While this is a possibility, we find this as unlikely as management continues to prioritize the dividend and their ability to continue to pay current distributions.\nOur Price Target for AT&T\nBy using three separate pricing approaches, we have arrived at or near the same price target for AT&T: $50. While this may seem aggressive compared to the current share price, we feel that this is attainable. Ultimately this price target is dependent on:\n\nBusiness lines returning to near pre-Pandemic levels later this year\nContinued support for the dividend and pay down of debt\nInvestors shifting their view of the company to be a media investment and not just a telecommunications operation\n\nHow Safe is the Dividend?\nOne of the biggest concerns from investors with AT&T is the company's ability to support a 7%+ dividend yield in an environment where the S&P 500 is yielding only 1.5%. Additionally, the company's massive debt load of $152 billion in long term debt has the potential to direct cash flows away from dividend payments. To put it another way, the company spends nearly $15 billion per year in dividend payments to common and preferred stock holders. If the company were to cut its dividend in half, the yield would still be attractive at 3.5% and management would have nearly $7.5 billion to pay down debt each year.\nFortunately, management is keenly aware of the perils of cutting a company's dividend. AT&T is in the Dividend Aristocrats \"Hall of Fame\" with a 36 year history of consecutive dividend growth. More importantly, management has made it clear that there are no plans to cut the company's dividend as the current payout ratio is in the 50% range.\nFrom an investor's perspective, we appreciate the constant update and comments from management around the dividend. If AT&T had a payout rate that was much closer to 100% or higher, we would be concerned. Additionally, if the company continued to be on an acquisition spree, we would also be concerned about a management decision to redirect capital from dividend payments to the acquisition of a new business. Fortunately, neither of these conditions exist. This makes us fairly comfortable with AT&T's dividend and leads to our valuation case for strong upside for the company. To put is more succinctly, if AT&T's stock price was not so heavily discounted, the company's dividend yield would be in line with peers.\nRisks\nInvestors in AT&T also should closely evaluate the potential risks that can materially change the way the company delivers on their growth goals.\n\nWireless Network - AT&T continues to invest heavily to create a robust 5G network and beyond. In the wireless space, it's a constant scrum among the major carriers to deliver the largest, fastest, and most reliable networks for their customers. This entails a large amount of capital to be spent each year to maintain market position. If AT&T were to make a misstep in this area, the decisions could be costly and could impact their ability to add customers.\nWarner Media - The COVID-19 Pandemic has changed the way we consume movies. While AT&T has positioned the company to deliver blockbuster movies direct to consumers, the revenue per movie might be significantly lower. This could have a largely negative impact as it's very expensive to bring a large scale movie to market. Ultimately, this could translate into lowered success per movie in the future.\nHBO Max - Currently, most hardware providers are allowing HBO Max to be available on their devices. If this were to change, the subscriber base and future subscriber growth could be negatively impacted.\n\nConclusion\nIn conclusion, last week's Investor Day was a great update on the company and confirmed our view that AT&T is solidly in the midst of changing from a national telecommunications company to a media company. As a result, we have listed AT&T as one of the four Dividend Dominators for 2021 in our high dividend equity portfolio. We feel that as the market sentiment shifts, the company will begin to be viewed as a vibrant media business. This in turn should drive share prices much higher. In the meantime, investors are well compensated with a solid 7% dividend yield. If you don't already own shares of this company, you should consider adding it to your portfolio today.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":322810007,"gmtCreate":1615793649509,"gmtModify":1704786544369,"author":{"id":"3563714281601583","authorId":"3563714281601583","name":"KW1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/094e3f8fd8b3de3da976515926ed1403","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3563714281601583","authorIdStr":"3563714281601583"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/322810007","repostId":1138186708,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":322832990,"gmtCreate":1615793140910,"gmtModify":1704786540153,"author":{"id":"3575346220147121","authorId":"3575346220147121","name":"ALT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8be5ce591282da3fbb11ca2132a854e2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575346220147121","authorIdStr":"3575346220147121"},"htmlText":"Please 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