Geopolitical conflicts are causing volatility in Asia-Pacific markets, with institutions suggesting that A-shares may increasingly demonstrate safe-haven characteristics. Guotai Haitong Securities believes that under the "new normal" of persistent geopolitical tensions, China's strong energy security advantages, complete industrial system, resilient supply chains, and improved market stabilization mechanisms with Chinese characteristics provide a stable foundation for the economy and stock market. These factors contribute to a lower risk assessment for Chinese markets. Combined with the diversification benefits derived from the low correlation between Chinese assets and global investments, the safe-haven attributes of A-shares are expected to become more apparent.
On March 30, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index and South Korea's KOSPI Index both fell more than 2%, while A-shares stood out as a bright spot in the Asia-Pacific region. Major A-share indices opened lower in the morning session, but the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive near the midday close. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%. The ChiNext Index and the STAR Composite Index declined 0.68% and 0.18%, respectively. Total market turnover for the day reached 1.93 trillion yuan.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that industrial enterprise profits for January to February totaled 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, marking the highest growth rate in four months. Revenue reached 2.08 trillion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, hitting a new high since 2023.
Guotai Haitong Securities emphasized that China's energy consumption structure, predominantly reliant on coal with a self-sufficiency rate long exceeding 90%, and lower dependence on oil and natural gas—accounting for less than 30% of consumption, significantly below the global average—enhances energy security. Additionally, diversified sources of crude oil imports and leading global capacity in new energy installations provide important flexibility for China's energy system to withstand external shocks.
CITIC Securities noted that changes in the Middle East highlight the strategic value of China's dual-pillar energy system based on "coal plus new energy," which could support outperformance of A-shares globally. Hua Chuang Securities' chief economist Zhang Yu stated that since 2025, midstream manufacturing has faced triple pressures from tariffs, rising non-ferrous metal costs, and increasing oil prices, yet profit margins have remained stable. While the impact of the current oil price surge requires further observation, she suggested that due to greater weight of non-ferrous metals in costs and relatively limited influence of oil prices on China's electricity costs, high oil prices driven by supply shocks might spur energy investment, potentially boosting demand in midstream sectors and supporting margin resilience.
Amid ongoing geopolitical risks, global advancements in frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics continue unabated. CITIC Securities pointed out that global AI computing capital expenditure saw significant and substantial upward revisions throughout 2025. Although recent growth in capital spending has slowed, price increases within the supply chain have replaced capital expenditure as the primary driver for the sector. Against the backdrop of a global AI boom, demand across multiple segments of the industry chain exceeds supply, and short-term adjustments do not alter the positive long-term trend.
Domestically, several certain advantages have become more prominent amid external uncertainties. Galaxy Securities highlighted that on the policy front, reform measures are being steadily implemented in the first year of the "16th Five-Year Plan" period, with policies ensuring stable and healthy development of capital markets. The simultaneous movement of household wealth into markets and the inflow of long-term funds are improving medium- to long-term capital supply with certainty. China's manufacturing advantages are particularly notable, with a comprehensive industrial chain and continuously upgrading competitive strengths forming an endogenous foundation to cushion against external fluctuations.
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