Major smartphone brands including OPPO and vivo have recently announced price increases for certain models, signaling a wave of price hikes across the industry. After March 16, prices for OPPO's A series, K series, and OnePlus models have risen by 200 to 500 yuan at a store in Beijing's Xicheng District, according to staff. The affected products are primarily volume-driven models already on the market. For instance, the starting price of the OPPO K13 Turbo has increased by 500 yuan to 2,299 yuan. While other major brands have not officially announced price adjustments, store employees report that replenishing stock for high-capacity models has become difficult. Some staff also noted that, contrary to the usual pattern of price reductions after a new model launch, several phones released in the second half of last year have maintained their prices, effectively constituting a hidden price increase.
The most frequently cited reason for the price hikes is the continuous rise in memory chip prices. According to a recent statement from the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, a combination of explosive demand growth and a sharp contraction in production capacity has led to a widening gap in the global memory market since September 2025. Data from the center shows that as of January this year, prices for both DRAM and NAND flash memory, the two main types of memory chips, reached their highest levels since records began in 2016. For example, the average contract price for mainstream DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1G*8) in January was $11.5, an increase of approximately 83% from September last year. The average contract price for NAND flash (128Gb 16G*8 MLC) was $9.5, nearly 2.5 times higher than in September.
The root cause of this super cycle is the faster-than-expected iterative upgrades in large AI models, which have generated massive demand for data storage and processing, explained Wei Gang, Sales Director at Hefei Ruike Microelectronics Co., Ltd. He added that leading memory manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are shifting production capacity towards higher-margin products such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), leading to a sustained tight supply of DRAM and NAND flash memory required for consumer electronics like smartphones. Reports indicate that inventory levels for DRAM and NAND at these three major suppliers have hit historic lows, with average stockpiles lasting only 3 to 5 weeks, indicating a severe shortage.
This structural shift in production capacity is directly reflected in the procurement costs of memory chips for smartphones. Research reports show that the proportion of memory chip costs in the total bill of materials for smartphones has risen from the previous 10-15% to 30-40%. For mid-range and low-end models with already thin profit margins, this cost imbalance has pushed some budget phones into negative gross margin territory.
Facing this cost pressure, smartphone manufacturers are not limited to just raising prices. Some brands are adjusting their product strategies in response, such as reducing memory capacity or the number of cameras in certain models, said Li Yuanchen, a technology industry analyst at Huaan Securities Research Institute. Taking premium phones as an example, Li noted that while some new models are 1,000 to 2,000 yuan more expensive than their predecessors, they also feature upgrades to processors and screens. This "upgraded specs + significant price hike" strategy is used to offset the rising costs of memory and processors.
Other observed strategies include manufacturers accelerating the development of their system ecosystems to enhance product value, focusing R&D on areas like foldable screens and imaging for differentiated competition, and optimizing supply chain management alongside internal cost-cutting to absorb pressure.
How long will this cycle last? Industry insiders analyze that the structural factors causing the memory shortage persist. While the supply tightness may see some relief due to memory capacity expansion and participation from smaller domestic suppliers, this is unlikely to fundamentally alter the trend. The long cycle time for expanding memory chip production is another factor. Hu Yang, an analyst at Southwest Securities Research Institute, stated that building a new memory wafer fab takes 1.5 to 2 years. This means that even with large-scale investment starting now, significant new capacity would only become available by the end of 2027. Furthermore, expansion is challenging due to process complexity and constraints like cleanroom availability.
International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that this structural memory shortage will continue throughout 2026 and potentially into 2027. Although the rate of price increases may slow in the second half of 2026, prices are unlikely to fall back to 2025 levels. "Everyone from chip suppliers to terminal brands and channels needs to prepare for this long-term structural adjustment," Li Yuanchen remarked.
Industry experts also advise consumers to rationally assess their phone replacement needs and avoid blindly following trends. Those with an urgent need to upgrade should prioritize models with good reputations and configurations that meet daily requirements, and take advantage of policies like national subsidies. Other options include purchasing reliable used phones or replacing the battery in an existing device to extend its life.
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