Special Topic: 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference & the Second Green Industry and Sustainable Consumption Expo. On October 22, a financial news flash reported that the 2026 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference was held from October 20 to 22 at the Huangpu Expo Park in Shanghai.
Mei Dewen, General Manager of the Beijing Green Exchange, participated in the "Dual Carbon Action and Shared Responsibility" sub-forum and delivered a speech.
Mei Dewen first introduced the development of the international voluntary carbon market. He stated that the overall scale of the voluntary carbon market remains relatively small. According to a World Bank report, supply in the current international voluntary carbon market is recovering, demand is migrating toward high quality, and the total global supply of carbon credits has begun to recover, but the supply-side recovery has not yet transmitted to the demand side, with market funds shifting from spot transactions to long-term agreements; high-quality carbon credits with additionality, monitorability, and verifiability remain persistently scarce and have become the core targets for capital lock-in.
In terms of data, global carbon credit issuance in 2026 reached 400 million tons, total cancellations amounted to 230 million tons, with the cancellation ratio exceeding 50%; future carbon credit offtake agreements totaled US$12 billion, and the premium for high-integrity carbon credits exceeded 87%.
Citing World Bank research, he summarized three major trends in the international voluntary carbon market: the supply side pursuing high quality; governments beginning to intervene forcefully; and market fragmentation being a long-term problem. He also mentioned that although the EU carbon emission mechanism is oriented toward the compliance carbon market, its impact will also transmit to a limited extent to the voluntary carbon market.
Mei Dewen stated that the Paris Agreement is the most important source of demand for the international voluntary carbon market, among which Article 6.2 is a state-led flexible framework allowing parties to transfer Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) for purposes such as achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and international aviation emission reduction (CORSIA), with diverse and compatible project source channels. At present, there are 112 bilateral cooperation arrangements involving 65 countries, and the total recorded ITMOs are close to 30 million tons, of which Guyana-related ITMOs account for nearly 25 million tons; the relevant system is establishing independent methodologies, tools, and registration systems.
In addition, CORSIA, promoted by the International Aviation Organization, is expected to bring market demand of more than 200 million tons, which will have a relatively large impact on the international voluntary carbon market; the appraisal framework led by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), as a carbon pricing system, will also transmit to the voluntary carbon market, covering industries such as green fuels.
Turning to China's voluntary carbon market, Mei Dewen introduced that CCER was officially launched in 2013, and the new CCER system was launched on January 22, 2024. It has now established a complete, standardized, strict, rigorous, and professional market system, including a 1+1+4 institutional system, methodology management and management measures, and supporting trading systems and trading institutions.
At present, 18 methodologies have been issued, covering forestry carbon sinks, agriculture, the energy industry, and others, with offshore wind power projects currently dominating. In October, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment published two batches of draft methodologies for public comment, adding 11 new methodologies covering green fuels and low-carbon production, energy storage, transportation electrification, and waste utilization, which will change the supply-demand structure of the voluntary carbon market.
As of the end of September, total CCER trading volume exceeded 23.4 million tons, with transaction value approaching RMB 2 billion, and prices maintaining steady growth.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the National Carbon Market Development Report (2026), showing that the national carbon market's results continue to emerge, stimulating enterprises' internal motivation for carbon reduction and efficiency improvement through market mechanisms. According to the Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market, by next year the national carbon market will basically cover the industrial sector, and the voluntary carbon market will achieve full coverage of key areas; by 2030, a national carbon emissions trading market based on total allowance control and combining free and paid allocation will be basically established, and a national greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction trading market featuring integrity, transparency, unified methodologies, broad participation, and alignment with international standards will be built, forming a carbon pricing mechanism with obvious emission reduction effects, a sound rule system, and reasonable price levels.
He mentioned that the relevant direction is to build a more effective, more dynamic, and more internationally influential carbon market.
Mei Dewen further discussed the role of the carbon market in the new round of economic growth cycle. He introduced that Kondratieff long-wave theory proposes that 50 to 60 years constitute one economic cycle, and long-term economic cyclical fluctuations are closely related to large-scale technological revolutions, which drive the cycle of economic prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery. Some views hold that 2026 may be the starting point of a new Kondratieff economic cycle, with representative directions including AI, green energy, and biotechnology.
The Kardashev scale proposes that the more advanced a civilization is, the more energy it consumes. Mei Dewen emphasized that in the AI era, it is necessary to strengthen technological innovation and technological competitiveness. He stated that the end of AI is energy, and the end of energy is new energy, and the carbon market can play an incentivizing role in green energy development and AI-driven growth in the new economic cycle.
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