After listing for just four trading days, HANXBIO-B (03378) saw its intraday low plummet nearly 60% below its IPO price, marking a disastrous market debut. However, the stock staged a significant rebound within six months. As the lock-up expiry test looms, whether the company can sustain the breakeven line for its cornerstone investors has become a focal point for market participants. Data shows that HANXBIO will face the unlocking of restricted shares held by cornerstone investors on June 23 this year. This unlocking involves a total of 2.9178 million shares subscribed by seven cornerstone investors, accounting for 15.93% of the global offering. Compared to the sharp decline in share price a month after listing, the current market dynamics for HANXBIO may be more complex. Previously, cornerstone investors might have been forced to hold due to deep losses, but with the share price now recovering near the IPO level, they have more options. When the lock-up expires in just over a month, if cornerstone investors decide to cut losses and exit, the release of nearly 20% of the shares into a market with limited liquidity could exert significant downward pressure on HANXBIO's stock price.
Reflecting on HANXBIO's journey from IPO to listing, the company introduced seven cornerstone investors during the IPO phase, including Fude Resources and Sage Partners Master Fund. Their total investment amounted to HKD 93.37 million for 2.9178 million shares, representing 15.93% of the global offering. The proportion allocated to cornerstone investors indicates that, under the liquidity constraints of Hong Kong's new IPO regulations, HANXBIO moved away from the traditional emphasis on high cornerstone participation, opting instead to reserve more space for non-locked placements. Compared to the more aggressive strategy of "all-in anchor investors" adopted by a biotech firm that IPOed around the same time, HANXBIO chose a more balanced approach of "fewer but high-quality cornerstones + long-term anchors + trading-oriented anchors." However, HANXBIO's grey market closing price on Phillip Securities was HKD 27.26, down 14.81%, and it plunged 46.25% on its debut, suggesting that this strategy did not initially provide sufficient price stabilization.
Within four days of listing, HANXBIO's share price hit a historic low of HKD 13.48. Externally, the timing of its listing coincided with a liquidity squeeze that dampened sentiment in the new-issue market. On one hand, its listing occurred at the end of 2025, a period when southbound fund inflows narrowed significantly, and the Hong Kong exchange's average daily turnover once fell below the HKD 200 billion mark, heightening market risk aversion and driving capital toward high-certainty assets. On the other hand, after 11 new listings in November, the number surged to 26 in December, particularly with a "clearance" wave of clustered listings in late December. The short-term oversupply overwhelmed market capacity, compounded by the aforementioned liquidity crunch, leading to the abandonment of marginal new stocks lacking fundamental support and causing HANXBIO's share price to plummet post-listing.
After bottoming at HKD 13.48, HANXBIO's share price saw a modest oversold rebound over the next three trading days but then remained range-bound at low levels for two months. From January 6 to February 11, the stock largely consolidated sideways with significantly reduced average daily volume. During this period, HANXBIO's share price hovered around HKD 17, with a minor 4.7% decline, indicating relative stability. This consolidation phase presented a prime opportunity for accumulation, with substantial volumes building up at lower levels. Once major market participants completed accumulation, the next step was to lift HANXBIO's share price away from their cost base to unlock profit potential. Consequently, on February 12, the stock surged 16.63%. Following several more days of consolidation, a clear upward move emerged.
From March 17 to April 2, HANXBIO experienced a roughly two-week rally, with its share price soaring 71.76%. On April 1, the intraday high reached HKD 32.46%, signaling a return to the HKD 32 IPO price after more than three months. How can the breakeven line for cornerstone investors be maintained? With about a month left until the cornerstone lock-up expiry, HANXBIO's share price has again entered a volatile phase. Observations indicate that after April 2, the stock broke below the upper Bollinger Band, initiating a technical correction toward the middle and lower bands, leading to increased volatility. From April 3 to May 18, during a month-and-a-half of fluctuation, the share price largely moved along the middle Bollinger Band.
During this period, HANXBIO had several market catalysts. First was a series of "small but frequent" share buybacks. Shortly after its first repurchase on March 29, HANXBIO began concentrated repurchases this year. To date, the company has conducted 25 buybacks at an average price of HKD 30.18, totaling 656,100 shares or 0.48% of its total share capital, involving HKD 19.8037 million. Second was the unveiling of key pipeline assets at this year's AACR annual meeting. During the conference, HANXBIO presented four core preclinical research findings via poster sessions, covering bifunctional fusion proteins, bispecific antibody-drug conjugates (BsAbADCs), targeted ADCs, and innovative preclinical evaluation systems. Among these, the company's first-in-class bispecific antibody-drug conjugate HX116 garnered notable attention. As ADC technology advances, tumor heterogeneity and acquired resistance to toxins have become significant hurdles. To address this, the industry is exploring more complex ADC combinations, with bispecific/multispecific antibodies and dual-payload strategies being key approaches. At AACR, HANXBIO showcased its internally developed, potential first-in-class PD-(L)1×VEGF BsAbADC HX116, which features innovative mechanisms combining direct cytotoxicity and immunogenic cell death enhancement to significantly boost antitumor activity, showing superior preclinical efficacy to its parent bispecific antibody. Studies confirm that HX116 specifically binds and internalizes into PD-L1-positive cells, with enhanced binding and internalization in the presence of VEGF. It demonstrates potent cytotoxicity in PD-L1-positive tumor organoids, comparable to the clinically leading PD-L1-ADC SGN-PDL1V. Notably, HX116A shows strong antitumor activity in models of non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Additionally, compared to other candidates targeting the same pathway, HX116B exhibits lower toxicity, a key advantage. Data indicate that HX116B has reduced toxicity, with a highest non-severely toxic dose of 120 mg/kg in cynomolgus monkeys, allowing for high-dose efficacy with maintained safety.
Despite promising pipeline progress, objectively, HANXBIO still lacks near-term clear catalysts such as out-licensing BD deals. How long the stock can sustain its high-level volatility remains uncertain. In fact, cornerstone investors who supported HANXBIO's IPO are still in a loss position. The lock-up expiry undoubtedly represents a watershed moment. Whether these investors choose to "cut losses and exit" or "hold and wait" will be a critical variable shaping HANXBIO's near-to-medium-term trajectory.
Comments