From $100 to $94: Who Really Captures the Profits in Stablecoin Remittances

Stock News10-09 16:32

According to Woofun AI, blockchain, as the great equalizer of the 21st century, has not produced a global monopoly in cross-border remittances, but instead redistributed the profits of this business to regional leaders with deep local roots. Technology has lowered the barriers, but the real value capture happens off-chain.

Every great technology acts as a powerful equalizer, setting a common baseline for all the value that can be created on top of it. The telephone and the internet were prime examples in the 20th century, and blockchain is poised to become the equivalent technology of the 21st century. Yet in the age-old and deeply painful field of remittances, on-chain settlement is merely the foundation. No global giant can swallow the whole market, and profits ultimately sink toward regional champions.

This article breaks down that industry architecture and explains how on-chain and off-chain platforms work together to capture value in this revamped remittance system. The new system can lower transfer fees and speed up cross-border money movement, but the logic of who gets the value has fundamentally reversed.

Moving money costs money, and cross-border transfers cost even more. The problem is that users often quietly bear these costs without understanding exactly what they are paying for. Suppose you work in the United States and send $100 home. Your family in Mexico receives pesos worth roughly $94. That missing $6 looks like the cross-border transfer fee. But the fee shown on your screen is only about $2, less than half of that $6. So where did the other $4 go?

An ordinary remittance transaction passes through multiple intermediaries, each controlled by a specific institution, and each takes a cut. The largest share usually comes from foreign exchange conversion: dollars must be converted into pesos before they can be deposited into a Mexican account, and banks add a spread on top of the mid-market rate. That cost comes to about $3, half of the total outlay.

This hidden cost black hole reveals that in the traditional remittance system, the visible fee is not the full price users pay. The FX spread is the real black hole swallowing profits. When stablecoins arrived and gradually spread, we thought they would completely rewrite the cross-border remittance model. But where is reality heading?

Blockchain is only an entry ticket, not a competitive moat. It cannot create a single dominant industry giant. The real value lies in off-chain businesses: obtaining licenses, building banking relationships, and enabling last-mile payout. Every country and region has completely different regulatory rules and banking system requirements.

The remittance market will give rise to a large cohort of regional leaders, each cultivating its own remittance corridor and building advantages there that others find hard to match. Those advantages can come from license resources, powerful distribution channels, or cross-selling capabilities. The diagram above shows only one transfer path: sending $100 from the United States to Mexico. If the corridor were Europe-to-Asia, or if the transfer type were person-to-person versus business-to-business, the cost structure would change along with the specific challenges involved.

Every remittance corridor and every remittance scenario has its own unique bottleneck. When the bottleneck changes, the market opportunity and where value accrues change as well. The global fee map shows a stark contrast between mature markets and high-cost regions.

The U.S.-Mexico corridor is a relatively mature case and the world's largest bilateral remittance route. Payment infrastructure on both ends is well developed, and market competition has pushed the fee for sending dollars to Mexico down to 4.53%. Mexico is also the lowest-cost recipient market among the G20. At the same time, Mexican peso liquidity is ample, and the country's real-time payment system SPEI can process transactions instantly around the clock. If all remittance corridors reached that level, blockchain would have almost no room to play.

World Bank data shows the global average remittance fee is 6.36%, more than double the target set by the United Nations. Sub-Saharan Africa is especially severe, with an average fee of 8.46%, and 13 African remittance corridors charge more than 20%, making it the highest-cost receiving region in the world. By contrast, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan form the lowest-cost receiving region globally, at an average of 5.11%.

Cost comes from friction. In recipient countries like Mexico, where the banking system is well developed and local payment rails are reliable, most problems have already been solved, leaving limited room for blockchain. But in places where banking services are missing, costs are high, or people distrust banks, blockchain becomes the natural choice. Around 20 remittance corridors worldwide have no low-cost service at all, and the vast majority of those are transfers within Africa.

The biggest bottleneck in any remittance corridor is the FX spread, and the size of that spread depends on how closely the economies behind the two currencies trade with each other. When trade is frequent, the two countries hold each other's currencies, ensuring liquidity. Trade between the United States and Mexico is very active, dollar-peso liquidity is ample, and banks have almost no room to mark up prices. When trade between two countries is thin, neither side has an incentive to hold the other's currency, and FX market liquidity becomes severely insufficient.

This relationship between trade and FX markets creates a paradox: the places where remittance demand is most urgent are precisely where transfer costs are highest. Geography is only one factor. The type of transfer business matters just as much.

The earlier example of $100 was a person-to-person (C2C) transfer. In 2025, person-to-person remittances accounted for less than 5% of retail remittance transaction volume but contributed 14% of industry revenue, with an average fee rate of 3.1%, the highest among all business types. Business-to-business (B2B) remittances are the opposite: they have the largest transaction volume but extremely low fee rates. The reasons these two business types struggle to scale are entirely different.

Person-to-person transfers involve small amounts and are mostly one-off transactions. Identity verification, compliance checks, last-mile payout, and marketing all raise customer acquisition costs. As a result, competition in person-to-person remittances is not centered on FX conversion but on channel distribution. The underlying payment rails have become increasingly commoditized. The key is acquiring and retaining remittance users at low cost in order to capture value.

By contrast, business-to-business transactions involve large amounts and high frequency, with razor-thin fees, and the ceiling on business scale is constrained by working capital. To ensure same-day delivery to a recipient in Manila, a service provider must pre-fund pesos in a Manila account, the so-called prefunded balance. If the provider serves multiple countries, the idle prefunded capital parked in each location balloons rapidly, and a single company can hardly bear it.

It follows that different transfer scenarios require different solutions: person-to-person remittances need lower customer acquisition and distribution costs, while business remittances need lower capital occupation in order to achieve timely settlement across corridors and reduce prefunded balances. Many blockchain projects are rebuilding the industry architecture around these two scenarios. Today the infrastructure is gradually becoming complete, and blockchain is actually the easiest part to build.

Blockchain can reduce settlement and FX conversion costs, but everyone can use blockchain, so this cost compression cannot create a unique competitive advantage. All participants using blockchain start from the same line, and all the contestable value flows off-chain. Only local companies with exclusive licenses, banking partnerships, and mature on/off-ramp networks have a chance to capture the largest share of value.

In the new generation of remittance architecture, the core functions at each layer have not fundamentally changed. Settlement is simply done with new assets, and the value distribution pattern has been reshuffled as a result.

Every remittance begins at the customer interaction layer. An app with massive traffic that builds a transfer entry point can solve the pain points of person-to-person remittances. Felix Pago runs its remittance business through WhatsApp, so immigrant communities do not need to download a brand-new app. Sending $200 through Felix Pago yields 3,680 Mexican pesos, while Wise would give only 3,604 pesos. Felix Pago settles on-chain using stablecoins, but what users see is simply the messaging software they have already used for years. Distribution is its moat, and on that basis Felix Pago completed a $75 million Series B round and reached annualized transaction volume in the billions of dollars. The interaction layer and distribution channels have become the new moat at the traffic gateway.

In person-to-person remittances, customer acquisition cost is the main obstacle, and using an existing super app such as WhatsApp as the entry point can greatly reduce that cost. The Felix Pago case shows that whoever controls the user-trusted interface can extract a higher premium in a seemingly transparent market.

The on/off-ramp layer is the hardest part of the entire system. The cost of stablecoin transfers is almost negligible, but converting between cash and stablecoins is precisely where most crypto payment solutions struggle. Each country has its own banking system, licensing requirements, and cash usage habits, and on/off-ramp facilities must be built market by market. Only companies deeply rooted in a single region can spread the investment cost and achieve a commercial closed loop. This also determines that the winners in this track are regional specialist service providers, not some globally uniform on/off-ramp solution.

Yellow Card has obtained money transmission licenses and virtual asset service provider licenses in more than 20 African countries, connected banks and mobile money networks, and enabled two-way conversion between fiat currencies such as the naira, cedi, and rand and stablecoins. Assembling a full set of licenses takes a long time and costs a lot, so Yellow Card chose to export this infrastructure externally and profit from on/off-ramp service fees and enterprise business transaction volume rather than charging ordinary consumers. Kotani Pay connects stablecoins to mobile money through USSD functionality, allowing even feature phones without internet access to complete payouts, a laborious but necessary integration few companies are willing to undertake. Coins.ph is a licensed on/off-ramp service provider in the Philippines, connected to the country's real-time payment system and a network of cash agent locations, earning revenue from license resources and payout reach.

Looking at the bigger picture, the on/off-ramp segment is full of localized challenges. That is why regional players can capture value here. Yellow Card and Coins.ph each cultivate their own remittance corridors and do not fight each other for market share. ZyntaFinance addresses similar pain points for enterprises. Most African currencies have no direct trading pairs, so sending money from Accra to Lagos requires routing funds through correspondent banks in New York or London, first converting cedis into dollars and then into naira. ZyntaFinance settles using stablecoins, charging 0.5%-1% per transaction, and selects the optimal chain among Solana, Ethereum, and Stellar based on real-time costs. Woofun AI data shows that these regional leaders, by building localized on/off-ramp networks, not only solve compliance problems but also reduce unit transaction costs through economies of scale, thereby occupying an irreplaceable position in the value chain.

The orchestration layer mainly serves business-to-business operations. Orchestration providers centrally manage payment rails, stablecoin types, and remittance routes, packaging on/off-ramp and settlement capabilities into a single set of API interfaces. This layer did not exist in the old industry architecture, and existing industry giants are racing to stake their claims through acquisitions. Stripe spent about $1.1 billion to acquire Bridge, so developers do not need to worry about wallets, blockchains, or licensing details and can complete cross-border transfers simply by calling an interface. Stripe leverages its massive merchant base to take a service fee on every transfer, rapidly scaling the business. MasterCard (MA.US) spent $1.8 billion to acquire BVNK to enable multi-channel fiat and stablecoin settlement for large enterprises, supported by compliance licenses in various jurisdictions. The orchestration layer is one of the few layers where a global leader could emerge. Companies like Stripe and MasterCard can connect all remittance corridors through a single API. Even so, a global orchestrator cannot control the naira off-ramp, the Philippine payout license, or a local bank account in Manila, and must connect to regional leaders. The global giants instead become customers of local service providers, and value flows downward to the regional leaders in each corridor rather than pooling entirely at the top.

The settlement asset layer replaces the traditional cross-border messaging system. Stablecoins replace SWIFT messages and prefunded nostro accounts to enable around-the-clock settlement. The value at this layer comes from reserve assets. Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL.US) holds billions of dollars in U.S. Treasuries as USDC reserves, earning reserve interest, while ordinary token holders cannot obtain that yield. In 2025, Tether earned more than $10 billion from this model, and its strongest territory is precisely the emerging markets where remittance problems are most acute. This is also why traditional giants such as Western Union (WU.US), Visa (V.US), and PayPal (PYPL.US) are all racing to issue their own stablecoins rather than simply using third-party stablecoins.

The FX layer was once the most profitable segment of the old architecture. Under the new system, banks' previous 50-150 basis point markup has been compressed to single-digit costs. OpenFX quotes only 3-12 basis points, uses stablecoins as the settlement channel for FX trades, hedges FX exposure through offsetting orders as much as possible, and takes positions itself when hedging is not possible, thereby offering real-time locked rates. If market liquidity is poor and currencies are highly volatile, directly holding positions is very risky, so OpenFX transfers the risk to local banks or over-the-counter desks in exchange for lower profits. Internal order matching can reduce capital occupation, further amplifying the contribution of fee income to profit. dLocal (DLO.US) applies this model in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, keeping fee rates around 0.7% and surviving on total transaction volume rather than high margins.

Stablecoins have restructured the seven-layer remittance value chain, cutting the cost of a $100 cross-border remittance from $5.99 to $1.10, with stablecoins replacing SWIFT at the settlement stage.

The clearing and netting layer optimizes capital efficiency. Netting offsets transactions flowing in both directions and transfers funds only for the residual net amount after mutual offsetting. The clearing layer handles netting across multiple parties and completes net settlement. As mentioned earlier, service providers need to pre-fund money in various countries, and companies such as OpenFX and dLocal rely on clearing and netting to reduce the scale of idle funds scattered across countries. Institutions such as Ubyx, t-0 Network, and Cycles enable two-way transaction offsetting, so neither side of a transaction needs to pre-fund. Someone sends dollars to Manila while someone else sends pesos back, and the two transactions offset each other without any actual transfer of funds. Clearing institutions consolidate a pile of bilateral obligations into a single net amount for settlement and charge fees for netting services. Although the business is still small today, this model can free up tens of billions of dollars in tied-up capital. t-0 Network launched in early 2026 and already supports cross-border payments in 1,200 FX pairs. From January to August 2026, business-to-business stablecoin settlement volume reached $150 billion, up 40% year over year.

Comparing the old and new industry architectures, we can see clearly what has changed and what remains the same. In the past, most profits were taken by the FX conversion stage; now profits are redistributed to three major segments: the interaction layer with scarce traffic, the orchestration layer that giants are racing to acquire, and the settlement asset issuers earning reserve interest. Value flows toward whoever controls scarce resources within each remittance corridor: a user-trusted interaction gateway, compliance licensing conditions, or a massive reserve that can passively generate yield. On-chain segments can hardly capture high value. Stablecoins can only accelerate the cross-border flow of dollars, but in the end someone still has to hold pesos in Manila and complete the conversion from dollars.

The cross-border remittance case has broad relevance. Blockchain lowers transfer costs, but it will not let any single company build a moat out of that efficiency. In the Web2.5 era, protocols do the underlying work while applications control users; cross-border remittances layer geographic attributes on top of that: infrastructure becomes global, but differentiated competitive barriers remain firmly rooted in local markets. A remittance sender in the United States still sends $100, and family in Mexico receives a few dollars more on the same day. Yet most of the profit generated in between ends up in the pockets of companies in cities that neither side has ever heard of or visited.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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