According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on January 16th, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 18.07 yuan per kilogram, a 0.6% increase compared to 17.97 yuan per kilogram on the previous Friday (January 9th).
The average price for this week was 18 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase compared to last week's average price of 17.95 yuan per kilogram.
The national weekly average price for hogs increased this week compared to the previous week.
According to data from China Pig Web, on January 16th, the price for hogs (outbred ternary) was 12.76 yuan per kilogram, a 1.2% increase compared to 12.61 yuan per kilogram on the previous Friday (January 9th).
Looking at the weekly average price, this week's average hog price was 12.74 yuan per kilogram, a 1.5% increase compared to last week's average price of 12.55 yuan per kilogram.
The national average trading weight for hogs increased this week.
Monitoring by SCI99 showed the national average trading weight for hogs was 124.58 kilograms, a slight increase of 0.16% compared to the previous period.
This week, the average trading weight across provinces showed more increases than decreases.
On one hand, as hog prices have risen consecutively and the price gap between fat and lean hogs remains wide, producers have actively engaged in holding back hogs from market, leading to an increase in the average slaughter weight.
On the other hand, in southern regions, it has become relatively difficult to complete transactions for lean hogs, while larger hogs are more popular; companies prioritized slaughtering heavier hogs, and the increase in average slaughter weight from producers drove up the average trading weight.
In Hunan and Jiangxi, the average trading weight declined recently due to a higher volume of large hogs being sent to market earlier.
In Henan and Shanxi, due to persistent reluctance to sell and holding back by small-scale farmers, while large-scale farms sold hogs opportunistically, an overselling phenomenon occurred; the volume of large hogs decreased while their price rose, leading slaughterhouses to increase their procurement share of lean hogs, resulting in a significant decrease in average weight.
The operating rate at key domestic hog slaughtering enterprises declined this week compared to the previous week, with the weekly average operating rate at 41.30%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week.
As hog slaughter volumes gradually increased, procurement by slaughtering enterprises became smoother; however, due to insufficient support from terminal demand, slaughterhouse orders were average, and most slaughtering enterprises operated at a loss, leading to the decline in the operating rate.
Recently, listed hog farming companies such as Muyuan Foods Co.,Ltd. (002714.SZ) and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.,Ltd. (300498.SZ) released their 2025 performance forecasts.
For 2025, Muyuan Foods Co.,Ltd. estimated its net profit attributable to shareholders to be in the range of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2% to 17.79%.
For 2025, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.,Ltd. estimated its net profit attributable to shareholders to be in the range of 5.0 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.73% to 46.12%.
Due to a significant year-on-year decline in hog sales prices, the profits from the hog farming businesses of these two major listed companies decreased in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Guosen Futures believes that, based on the number of piglets born, the theoretical supply of lean hogs in the first quarter of this year remains high; however, supported by the strong price difference between fat and lean hogs, industry practices of holding back hogs and secondary fattening have led to a phase of tight slaughter volumes.
The current continuous rise in average slaughter weight indicates that live inventory accumulation is still ongoing.
From a demand perspective, starting from the latter half of next week, slaughtering demand in the industry is expected to enter the ramp-up period before the Spring Festival peak season.
At that time, hog supplies from large-scale enterprises and large hogs from small-scale farmers will also increase simultaneously, making it a critical juncture to verify the true matching degree of supply and demand.
The subsequent inventory reduction will also serve as an important indicator for spot prices during the post-holiday off-season.
In the long term, the recent rapid rise in piglet prices reflects a shift in industry expectations towards optimism; subsequent attention should be paid to the impact of rising piglet prices on the pace of capacity reduction.
SCI99 predicts that the national market trend in the coming week may show a pattern of first falling, then rebounding, and then falling again.
On the supply side, hog supply in the coming week may transition from low to high.
Initially, influenced by reduced volumes and reluctance to sell in the north, as well as rain and snow weather, hog slaughter volumes might be limited, potentially leading to rising hog prices in the north.
However, southern markets still have the potential for price reductions to boost volume, so the national average price might experience a slight decline.
Subsequently, southern markets may gradually develop resistance to price declines, while price increases in the north could drive a small rise in the national average price.
In the later part of the week, as hog transportation conditions improve and slaughter volumes accelerate, hog prices might experience a slight decline.
On the demand side, slaughterhouses report that sales of white-striped pork are relatively slow, and their acceptance of high-priced hogs is continuously decreasing, which to some extent constrains the potential for price increases.
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