International Gold: On April 8, international gold (spot London gold) exhibited extreme volatility characterized by a "gap-up opening, strong breakout, and high-level consolidation." Stimulated by news of a provisional two-week ceasefire agreement involving the US, Iran, and Israel at the Asian market open, the price of gold gapped up sharply at the opening, quickly breaking through the key psychological barrier of $4800. It surged to a high of $4856 per ounce during the session, with intraday gains exceeding 3% at one point. Subsequently, market sentiment gradually cooled, and profit-taking by long positions emerged, causing the price to retreat slightly from its peak. At the time of writing, it was quoted around $4798 per ounce, with intraday gains narrowing to approximately 1.5%. The ceasefire is merely a temporary, short-term arrangement, with the outcome of subsequent negotiations unknown. Geopolitical risks have not been entirely eliminated, providing ongoing safe-haven support as a base for gold holdings. The US non-farm payrolls data for March released last Friday (178K new jobs, unemployment rate at 4.3%) significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to postpone the anticipated timing of the Fed's first interest rate cut from June to September or later. The 10-year US Treasury yield held firmly above 4.3%, and the US Dollar Index maintained its high level around 105, continuously capping the upside potential for gold bulls.
Technically, on the daily chart, the gold price effectively broke through the previous dense resistance zone of $4700-$4720 and the key $4800 level, closing with a large bullish candlestick with minimal upper shadow, decisively breaking out of the previous $4600-$4700 consolidation range. The moving average system (MA5/MA10/MA20) has turned into a bullish alignment, with the price firmly above all moving averages, confirming a medium-term bullish structure. A key breakthrough: the $4735 level has transformed from strong resistance into a significant near-term support. On the 4-hour chart, after a series of consecutive bullish candles, the MACD histogram shows diminishing bullish momentum, and its lines are flattening with signs of potentially turning upwards. The RSI indicator has retreated from overbought territory to just below 70, entering a neutral-strong zone. The divergence between the price making new highs and the indicators not confirming suggests a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. Furthermore, the price is currently trading above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a near-term need to pull back and test for support, thereby increasing the risk of chasing the rally higher. Resistance levels: first resistance at $4830-$4850; second, stronger resistance at $4880-$4900. Support levels: first support at $4780-$4800; second, stronger support at $4730-$4750.
Trading suggestion: Consider short positions in the $4820-25 area, with a stop loss above $4835, targeting $4788, and upon a break, look for $4760-$4730. For long positions, consider buying on dips lightly and in batches within the $4750-$4730 area, with a stop loss below $4700, targeting the $4800-$4830 vicinity.
International Silver: On April 8, international silver (spot London silver) displayed a strong performance characterized by a "gap-up opening, violent breakout, and high-level consolidation," showing significantly greater elasticity than gold. Driven by the Middle East ceasefire news at the Asian open, safe-haven funds flowed in集中, causing silver to gap up sharply at the opening, directly breaking through the dense resistance zone of $73.0-$74.0. It surged to a high of $77.14 per ounce during the session, with a maximum intraday gain exceeding 6.5%. Technically, silver effectively broke above the upper boundary of its $70.0-$74.0 consolidation range and the key psychological $75.0 level, closing with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart, completely reversing the medium-term consolidation pattern. On the 4-hour chart, after a series of consecutive bullish candles, the MACD histogram shows insufficient bullish momentum, and the price is trading above the upper Bollinger Band. This current setup is unfavorable for continued bullish advancement, suggesting a near-term need for a corrective pullback. Avoid chasing the rally for intraday trades. Operations can appropriately focus on a potential correction, looking to re-enter long positions after the correction concludes. Resistance levels: first resistance at $77.0-$77.5 (today's high area); second, stronger resistance at $78.5-$79.0 (historical high-pressure zone). Support levels: first support at $75.5-$76.0 (breakout level/resistance-turn-support); second, stronger support at $74.0-$74.5 (near the middle Bollinger Band/5-day MA).
Trading suggestion: Long positions: Consider light long positions on a pullback to $75.0-$74.5, with a stop loss below $74.0, targeting $76.0-$77.0. Short positions: Consider light short positions around $76.5, with a stop loss above $77.0, targeting $75.5-$75.0.
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