In the futures market, a pullback in U.S. tech stocks weighed on demand expectations, prompting long positions to take profits. Overnight, LME tin closed down 2.18%. The latest settlement price was $43,675, a decrease of $975 from the previous trading session. Trading volume reached 1,065 lots, while open interest stood at 228.79 million lots. According to data from the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin inventories on January 8 were 5,405 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day. Yangtze River Tin Market Analysis: Shanghai tin futures opened mainly higher today. The main February 2026 contract opened at 256,000 yuan, down 150 yuan. At 9:10 AM, the main February 2026 contract was quoted at 356,340 yuan, up 190 yuan. After a high open, Shanghai tin futures traded in a high-range consolidation pattern. On the macro front, the overnight market presented a contradictory picture: weak U.S. retail data and hawkish rate-cut comments from Fed officials, contrary to conventional logic boosting easing expectations, instead pushed the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher simultaneously. This signals a profound shift in market trading logic—from simply betting on liquidity to a repricing of "policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and economic resilience." Against this backdrop, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data and a former administration's tariff ruling tonight (January 9) will be key events for calibrating short-term direction. Tin prices are experiencing a volatile correction as the tug-of-war between supply and demand intensifies. This round of correction is primarily driven by a combination of weaker macro sentiment, a stronger U.S. dollar, and improving supply-side expectations. On one hand, the persistently strong U.S. dollar index, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate-cut pace, is suppressing prices of dollar-denominated nonferrous metals. On the other hand, geopolitical risk premiums have somewhat receded. Notably, the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State has progressed faster than expected, with increased export plans for January. Coupled with the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo not escalating further, market concerns over ore shortages have marginally eased. The previously supportive supply narrative is now loosening. The demand side presents a picture of "divergence between old and new." The traditional consumer electronics sector remains in its off-season, with orders for solder paste companies showing no significant recovery. Downstream purchasing is largely driven by immediate needs. While demand from emerging sectors like AI servers and photovoltaics continues to grow, the current incremental demand is still insufficient to fully offset the weakness in traditional areas. The overall sentiment across the industrial chain remains cautious, with short inventory cycles failing to generate momentum for active inventory replenishment. Outlook for Today's Price Trend. In summary, the short-term "tight balance" in the tin market has loosened somewhat. Influenced by macro pressures and a weakening fundamental picture, prices have entered a phase of volatile adjustment. Future price movements warrant close attention to the actual progress of supply recovery in Myanmar, the trajectory of the U.S. dollar index, and signals of a recovery in demand from the consumer electronics peak season.
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