Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the ongoing reforms of the iMoutai platform are gradually demonstrating their effectiveness. The online channel continues to strengthen consumer reach, while the offline standard Moutai product is rationally returning to its consumption attributes, thereby releasing demand. The turnover speed of Feitian Moutai is significantly faster than the same period last year. After the New Year's Day holiday, wholesale prices have risen moderately. In the previous week, the price for loose Feitian bottles reached 1,600 yuan, triggering panic among channels about product shortages, and the price surged by 150 yuan that day. Although it retreated over the weekend, it is expected that the 1,600 yuan level will provide strong support before the holiday, with both volume and price performance exceeding expectations. The iMoutai platform contributes additional Feitian volume, estimated to be around 20%. Considering that the iMoutai reforms have effectively enhanced consumer reach and the price per ton has increased slightly, it is judged that the standard Feitian product will contribute incremental revenue during the Spring Festival through increases in both volume and price. The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows: The results of Moutai's reforms are becoming apparent, with both volume and price exceeding expectations. The ongoing reforms of the iMoutai platform are gradually demonstrating their effectiveness. The online channel continues to strengthen consumer reach, while the offline standard Moutai product is rationally returning to its consumption attributes, thereby releasing demand. The turnover speed of Feitian Moutai is significantly faster than the same period last year. After the New Year's Day holiday, wholesale prices have risen moderately. In the previous week, the price for loose Feitian bottles reached 1,600 yuan, triggering panic among channels about product shortages, and the price surged by 150 yuan that day. Although it retreated over the weekend, it is expected that the 1,600 yuan level will provide strong support before the holiday, with both volume and price performance exceeding expectations. This is considered due to three factors: first, the iMoutai reforms have effectively expanded the customer base boundary, attracting and cultivating consumer groups, and guiding them to offline channels, driving high growth in distributor channel demand; second, the price of standard Feitian has dropped to the 1,500 yuan price band, returning to its consumption attributes and releasing a large amount of potential consumption demand from business banquets, family gatherings, and gifting; third, the distribution channel shipment of high-value-added products like premium and aged wines has decreased, with standard Feitian filling this supply gap, leading to further accelerated turnover. Standard Feitian: Pre-holiday demand continues to heat up, with volume and price driving revenue growth. The collection progress for Feitian Moutai before the Spring Festival is 33%, with goods basically all received and fully digested. Some distributors are seeking additional allocations. Overall, the progress in the distribution channel is roughly on par with last year. The iMoutai platform contributes additional Feitian volume, estimated to be around 20%. Considering that the iMoutai reforms have effectively enhanced consumer reach and the price per ton has increased slightly, it is judged that the standard Feitian product will contribute incremental revenue during the Spring Festival through increases in both volume and price. High-value-added products: Reduced supply focuses on destocking, with inventory at low levels. In 2026, the allocation of high-value-added products will mainly come from the iMoutai platform. The distribution channel is primarily focused on digesting the high-priced inventory from Q4 2025. Among these, there has been a small shipment of 15-Year Aged wine by controlled distributors. The Zodiac series fully adopts a consignment model, leaving distributors with no inventory. The existing inventory of premium wines has been digested to low levels, with some distributors already seeking incremental purchases from flagship stores. Overall, before the holiday, the sales performance of premium and aged wines is relatively good, and sales are expected to show positive growth. Observations from Spring Festival stocking channels: Sentiment is polarized, with Moutai and Wuliangye's sales exceeding expectations. Recent channel visits and research in multiple locations found that Spring Festival liquor stocking and sales have gradually started since January. Most channels feedback that overall shipments since January still show a double-digit decline year-on-year, but performance varies significantly across different regions and brands. By region, markets with a stronger economic foundation and better drinking atmosphere, such as East China and Henan, reported sales declines of around 10%, while provinces like Shandong and Hunan reported declines in the double digits. By price segment, Feitian Moutai's sales achieved counter-trend growth, performing notably well. The performance of Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu varied across different regions. Sales in the mass-market price segment declined by over 10%, while the sub-premium segment remains under significant pressure, with sales declines exceeding 20%. Specifically, the performance of premium famous liquors varies by region. Feedback from various regions indicates widespread shortages of Feitian Moutai, with distributors holding almost no inventory. Some regions have requested additional allocation plans. Feedback on Wuliangye's sales in East China is flat, while Henan and Hunan report single-digit declines. A few regions still report double-digit sales declines. After concentrated arrivals in the middle of the month, wholesale prices stabilized, slightly exceeding expectations. Luzhou Laojiao continues to execute a price-support strategy for its high-proof Guojiao product, consequently facing heavier pressure on sales and inventory. Sales have declined significantly year-on-year, and market share continues to shrink. However, the low-proof Guojiao performs relatively well in the East China market. Fenjiu has not significantly pushed inventory for the Spring Festival so far. Its Blue and White series achieved positive sales growth in East China and other areas. Henan reported a single-digit sales decline, while Central and South China reported double-digit declines. In some local regions, the wholesale price for Qinghua 20 rebounded from 350 yuan to 365 yuan, with inventory marginally reduced. The demand for Bofen remains rigid, continuously solidifying its foundation. Regional leaders are still generally under pressure in their channels. Yanghe is continuously digesting inventory, with平淡 market performance and a lack of effective peak-season initiatives. On the product side, Meng 6+ is controlling volume to support prices, while Meng 3 Crystal Edition is trading price for volume. Jinshiyuan has set high collection targets for the Spring Festival. Inventory levels remain high, channel profits are thinning, and core product sales are declining. However, its market share in Jiangsu remains stable. Gujing Gongjiu's current collection progress is approximately 20%+. Channel inventory still needs to be digested. Its performance in the external Jiangsu market is stable. Investment recommendations for liquor: Moutai's sales and wholesale prices exceed expectations; pay attention to the Spring Festival catalyst given the bottoming of expectations and positioning; prefer Moutai and Gujing. As the Spring Festival approaches, last week's sales and wholesale price performance for Feitian Moutai both exceeded expectations. Feedback from many regions for Wuliangye indicates flat sales, showing the concentration of the Spring Festival peak season effect on leading brands. Currently, the liquor sector is at a bottom in terms of expectations and positioning. Short-term, it is recommended to continue monitoring the catalyst of the Spring Festival peak season. Looking at the full year of 2026, liquor companies are transitioning from passive responses to active adjustments. Opportunities lie after Moutai's wholesale prices fall back and stabilize, expectations bottom out and stabilize, becoming clearer towards the middle of the year. From an allocation perspective, we recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd.(600519.SH) for its high certainty and dividend yield. For the Spring Festival mass-market liquor segment, we highly recommend Gujing Gongjiu(000596.SZ). Monitor the destocking pace of Wuliangye(000858.SZ), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd.(600809.SH), and Luzhou Laojiao(000568.SZ). Additionally, keep an eye on innovative model players like ZJLD(06979). Consumer staples: Focus on recommending the catering supply chain and festive foods. First, demand in the catering supply chain is stabilizing with no inventory burden, and there are many catalysts from new products and store formats, presenting reversal opportunities after extreme pressure. Current top picks are Anjoy Foods(603345.SH), Babilo(605338.SH), and Guoquan(02517). Monitor LIGAO Foods(300973.SZ). Second, the catalyst from festive foods during the Spring Festival peak season. The snack sector also benefits from the effect brought by the listing of Mingminghenmang. Recommend Yanjin Palace(002847.SZ). Monitor Mingminghenmang(01768), Wanchen Group(300972.SZ), Weilong Delicious(09985), and Haoxiangni(002582.SZ). Also recommend Dongpeng Beverage(605499.SH), New Hope Dairy(002946.SZ), and monitor the Spring Festival opportunity for Xima Food(002956.SZ). Third, continue to highly recommend Angel Yeast(600298.SH), as overseas high growth opens up medium-term growth space, and accelerating cost declines enhance profit elasticity. Strategically recommend Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group(600887.SH), Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food(603288.SH), Nongfu Spring(09633), China Resources Beer(00291), Kuaijishan(601579.SH), etc. Risk warnings include persistently weak macro demand, intensifying industry competition, and cost increases suppressing short-term profits.
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