On May 22nd, gold prices continued to trade within a range yesterday. After a brief rally to $4,570 at the Asian open, prices retreated, hovering mostly above $4,500 throughout the Asian and European sessions. The U.S. session saw a dip below $4,500 to a low of $4,489, but a late-session surge quickly pushed prices back above $4,550. The metal closed at $4,541, forming a doji candlestick on the daily chart. Friday, May 22nd, marks the final trading day of the week, featuring a double-header of key events: the potential official release of the US-Iran agreement draft and the swearing-in of Kevin Warsh as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. With these mixed catalysts, the battle between bulls and bears around the $4,500 level is heating up. Warsh is known for his hawkish stance, advocating for inflation control and balance sheet reduction. Against a backdrop where markets are already concerned about potential rate hikes following stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI (3.8%) and PPI (6.0%) data for April, a hawkish tone in his inaugural speech tonight could further dampen rate cut expectations. This would likely boost the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, putting direct pressure on the non-yielding asset, gold. Market expectations for a rate cut this year have nearly frozen, with some pricing in the possibility of a cut only by 2027. Technically, gold faced pressure and corrected before rebounding yesterday, indicating a shift towards sideways consolidation. This suggests the market may be nearing a directional decision, with greater emphasis on fundamental and external factors rather than its own internal momentum. Intraday, gold is expected to continue oscillating within the hourly chart range of $4,560-$4,480. A narrowing of this range signals an impending directional move, and its occurrence on a Friday heightens the potential for unexpected news to disrupt the market. In summary, the primary focus today is the inaugural speech by the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, scheduled for 11 PM Beijing time, which will shape short-term sentiment regarding the U.S. interest rate path. For trading, it is advisable to control position sizes on this weekly closing day, avoiding chasing rallies or selling into dips. The key will be to monitor the battle around the $4,500 level. Prudent traders may wait for clarity from the news before following any emerging trend. Trading recommendations for the day: Gold: Trade within the $4,480-$4,570 range, with a 10-point stop-loss and a 70-80 point profit target. If the evening speech is bearish, consider directly selling on the break. Key economic data and events to watch on Friday, May 22, 2026: 22:00 Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 22:00 Final U.S. One-Year Inflation Expectations for May 22:00 U.S. CB Leading Index MoM for April 22:00 Speech by Fed Governor Waller
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