Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that China has applied to add 200,000 satellites covering 14 constellations. This round of applications has surged by nearly an order of magnitude, which may trigger a new wave of global attention on strategic space resources in the future. The focus shifts from "many stars, few rockets" to "strong supply and demand," highlighting leaders in satellite manufacturing and the rocket launch sector. 1) Satellite manufacturing: It is recommended to focus on integrated satellite manufacturers with large-scale, low-cost mass production capabilities, as well as suppliers of core components such as phased array antennas, spaceborne laser communication terminals, and Hall thrusters. 2) Rocket launch sector: The massive launch gap is currently a significant bottleneck, benefiting leading commercial rocket companies possessing "high payload + reusable" technology and related core component enterprises. 3) Ground infrastructure: The entry of telecom operators will drive the upgrade and replacement of ground gateway stations and terminal equipment, suggesting focus on relevant equipment suppliers.
The event: Recently, China submitted an application to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for an additional 203,000 satellites. This application covers 14 satellite constellations, with the CTC-1 and CTC-2 constellations each applying for 96,714 satellites, becoming the main force of this round. Beyond specialized satellite operators like China Satellite Network and Yuanxin Satellite, the applicants now broadly include, for the first time, commercial aerospace enterprises such as Radio Innovation Institute, Galaxy Space, and Guodian Gaoke, as well as traditional communication operators like China Mobile and China Telecom.
The application of over 200,000 satellites aims to seize the "commanding height" of frequency and orbital resources. The scale of China's 203,000-satellite application to the ITU far exceeds the combined total of the previous "GW Constellation" (approx. 13,000) and "Qianfan Constellation" (approx. 15,000), marking a new era where China's low-orbit constellation construction advances from the "thousand-star" to the "hundred-thousand-star" level. Among them, the two mega-constellations CTC-1 and CTC-2, with a combined application of nearly 193,000 satellites, are the absolute mainstay. Against the backdrop of increasingly crowded frequency and orbital resources in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), this "saturation-style application" reflects a national-level strategic will, aiming to reserve ample development space for the future 6G integrated space-ground network through "frequency occupation to secure orbits."
The strong entry of telecom operators accelerates the construction of the integrated space-ground network. The structure of applicants has undergone a fundamental change, evolving from a单一的 pattern of specialized satellite operators (e.g., China Satellite Network, Yuanxin Satellite) to a diversified landscape of "national team + commercial aerospace + traditional operators." The participation of traditional communication giants like China Mobile and China Telecom (inferred from the CTC naming, possibly related to China Telecom Corp) signifies that satellite internet is no longer an isolated island but will be deeply integrated with terrestrial 5G/6G networks. Operators possess vast user bases and experience in ground base station operation and maintenance; their entry will significantly accelerate the closure of the satellite internet business model and promote the popularization of Direct-to-Cell services.
The ITU milestone deadline forces an urgent need for a capacity doubling across the entire industry chain. According to the ITU Radio Regulations and Resolution 35, newly applied constellations face stringent "bringing into use" deadlines: the first satellite must be launched by the 7th year, with 10%, 50%, and 100% deployment required by the 9th, 12th, and 14th years, respectively. Faced with the massive application of 200,000 satellites, this implies that China's space industry must achieve an annual launch capacity of tens of thousands of satellites over the next decade. The enormous fulfillment pressure will directly translate into urgent demand for rocket launch capacity (especially high-payload reusable rockets like those from companies such as Landspace) and mass production capabilities for satellites, compelling the industry to achieve an exponential leap in production capacity within a short period.
Risk warnings include investment progress falling short of expectations and technological breakthroughs not meeting expectations.
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