Agricultural commodities markets experienced mixed movements on Thursday, with soybeans declining and livestock futures showing volatility.
Protein Meal:
CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Thursday as warmer weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest prompted a price retreat. Traders were also positioning ahead of the upcoming USDA monthly supply and demand report. Soybean oil futures declined, while soybean meal futures rose. The weekly export sales report showed net new-crop U.S. soybean sales of 408,300 metric tons, meeting expectations, with 202,000 metric tons sold to China. Large single-day export sales on Thursday included 136,000 metric tons to China and 120,000 metric tons to an unknown destination, following a confirmed sale of 472,000 metric tons to China on Wednesday. Market focus is on the USDA report, where analysts anticipate old-crop soybean ending stocks at 338 million bushels, new-crop stocks at 330 million bushels, and new-crop production at 4.459 billion bushels. Domestically, Chinese soybean meal spot prices tracked import costs, while persistent spot market oversupply pressures continued to weigh on basis levels. The market awaits guidance from the July supply and demand report, closely monitoring U.S. crop weather and the pace of domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation.
Vegetable Oils:
BMD palm oil futures ended lower on Thursday, pressured by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the quota allocation for Indonesia's biodiesel blending mandate. A recent statement from an Indonesian energy ministry official indicated that the B50 policy, once implemented, would require national consumption of 16.7 to 18 million kiloliters. The official noted current reserves are sufficient for demand, with the government planning regular revisions to quota allocation regulations. Canola futures in Canada also declined, though weather concerns limited the downside. Crude oil prices fell as tensions involving Iran did not escalate significantly. Domestic vegetable oil markets in China continued their sideways consolidation amid a lack of clear directional cues. Market participants are closely watching for the outcomes of the upcoming MPOB and USDA reports.
Live Hogs:
The front-month September 2026 live hog futures contract experienced a sharp intraday drop before recovering towards the close on Thursday, ending the session with a modest 0.24% decline to settle at 12,215 yuan per ton. Spot market data showed the national average daily hog price at 11.24 yuan per kilogram, down 0.06 yuan from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery region of Henan, the average price was 11.4 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan. Prices fell in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Liaoning but rose in Shandong. Northern regions saw price rebounds influenced by reduced supply from large-scale farming groups, while increased hog slaughter in southern markets led to oversupply and price declines. The fundamental backdrop remains one of relatively ample supply, and with high temperatures suppressing terminal demand, hog prices are expected to maintain a weak trend in the near term.
Eggs:
Egg futures were mixed on Thursday. The front-month August 2026 contract saw a sharp intraday decline before paring losses, closing down 1.17%. The September 2026 contract fell 0.84%. Spot egg prices averaged 4.42 yuan per jin nationally, down 0.01 yuan. In producing areas, Ningjin saw pink-shell egg prices hold steady at 4.3 yuan/jin, while Heishan brown-shell egg prices fell 0.1 yuan to 4.1 yuan/jin. In consumption areas, Puxi brown-shell egg prices rose 0.11 yuan to 4.8 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou prices were unchanged at 4.9 yuan/jin. Most traders purchased based on immediate needs. Prices in major sales regions mostly increased, with a few areas stable or slightly lower. Supply-side factors continue to support egg prices. Expectations are leaning optimistic as southern China exits the rainy season and enters the traditional peak demand period later in the year. However, with futures prices having strengthened recently, caution is warranted regarding potential pullbacks. Market attention remains on the impact of older layer culling, cold storage egg supplies on spot prices, and overall market sentiment.
Corn:
During Thursday's night session, the front-month September 2026 corn futures contract found support at the 5-day moving average and moved higher, with the price reclaiming the 2,300 yuan per ton level and showing relative strength. The physical market remained in a stalemate. Prices in Northeast China were stable to slightly weak, with local traders selling based on market conditions. However, downstream purchasing interest was generally lackluster, resulting in limited overall transaction volume and weak demand, suggesting a near-term breakout is unlikely. Prices in North China were mostly stable with minor adjustments in some areas. Deep-processing enterprises adjusted prices flexibly based on delivery volumes, maintaining a dynamic supply-demand balance with no clear trend emerging. The sales region market was generally stable to slightly weak with minimal fluctuation. Downstream enterprises primarily made essential purchases, while alternative feed grains continued to divert demand, leading to thin overall market activity. Weakness in the futures market also dampened spot market sentiment, pointing to a continuation of weak, range-bound trading in the short term. Technically, the September contract fell sharply to 2,280 yuan/ton on Monday, breaking below monthly moving average support. It stabilized and rebounded on Tuesday, regaining the 2,300 yuan support level, buoyed by gains in U.S. wheat and corn markets, and has since traded higher over the following two sessions. Overall, the corn market remains locked in a stalemate in July, awaiting new directional cues from weather developments. Subsequent market focus will be on the pace of trader selling and potential changes in policy-related stock release schedules.
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