Title
Earning Preview: HTSC this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 0%, and institutional views are cautiously positive
Abstract
Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. will report its results on March 30, 2026 post-Market; investors are watching earnings quality, fee resilience, and investment gains stability as management’s near‑term priorities converge on fee income recovery and disciplined risk-taking.
Market Forecast
Consensus attention centers on earnings rather than top line, with the current-quarter adjusted EPS forecast at 0.38, implying a 5% year-over-year decline. Revenue guidance has not been formally provided in the dataset, and market models vary; margin expectations tilt to stability with management discipline expected to support gross margin near recent levels and net profitability anchored by controlled expenses.
Wealth Management remains the largest contributor by revenue, underpinned by client activity and product distribution; the outlook focuses on execution against issuance calendars and client asset flows. International Business appears to offer the strongest near-term optionality within the franchise, supported by cross-border client activity; last quarter revenue reached 2.91 billion RMB, positioning it as a key swing factor for fee and trading contributions.
Last Quarter Review
Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. reported last quarter revenue of 10.91 billion RMB (down 21.98% year over year), a gross profit margin of 4.36%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.18 billion RMB, a net profit margin of 51.43%, and adjusted EPS of 0.55 (down 29.49% year over year).
A notable highlight was profitability resilience on a sequential basis, with net profit rising 32.67% quarter on quarter, supported by tighter cost control and a more favorable income mix. Wealth Management led the segment contribution with 8.86 billion RMB in revenue, complemented by Institutional Services at 3.18 billion RMB and International Business at 2.91 billion RMB; year-over-year segment growth data were not disclosed in the dataset.
Current Quarter Outlook
Wealth Management: Anchoring fee income and stabilizing run-rate earnings
Wealth Management is the core earnings anchor. The previous quarter’s 8.86 billion RMB contribution reflected the breadth of client franchise and product shelf, with the fee pool primarily tied to brokerage activity, distribution, and advisory. For this quarter, the operational focus is on maintaining client engagement through consistent product launches, driving cross-sell into discretionary and advisory mandates, and sustaining net inflows into higher-quality assets. The sales cadence of public funds and structured wealth products remains central to revenue capture; when capital markets activity normalizes, trading turnover and margin lending balances typically support ticket size and commission yields. Pricing pressure on headline fee rates is unlikely to be the primary narrative in the near term; rather, variability will come from market turnover and issuance mix. On the cost side, investment in front-office productivity and digital client acquisition should preserve operating leverage without undermining service quality. The segment’s contribution to group cash generation also underpins flexibility in funding and selective risk-taking across the platform.
International Business: Optionality from cross-border capital and solutions-led growth
International Business delivered 2.91 billion RMB of revenue last quarter, highlighting the significance of client activity and cross-border solutions within the group. This quarter, the key swing factors include client demand for offshore execution, fixed income and currency solutions, and cross-border advisory that can deepen share-of-wallet while smoothing earnings cyclicality. The breadth of the product platform—sales and trading in rates and credit, cross-border ECM/DCM facilitation, and offshore wealth solutions—positions the segment to monetize volatility responsibly when client hedging and asset rotation intensify. While absolute activity levels can vary with market conditions, the structural benefit lies in tapping diversified pools of liquidity and fee opportunities beyond the onshore cycle. Execution risk is primarily operational—ensuring efficient balance sheet deployment and hedging discipline in volatile markets—yet prudent limits and tighter risk filters should keep earnings within expected ranges. With incremental productivity from systems and process upgrades, International Business can extend its contribution beyond pure flow revenue toward more recurring advisory and solutions income.
Key stock-price drivers this quarter: Earnings quality, fee momentum, and investment gains
Share performance in this print will be driven by the mix of fee income versus investment-related gains and the degree to which each line item proves repeatable. On earnings quality, investors will parse the contribution from recurring fee streams—brokerage, distribution, advisory—relative to episodic trading and investment gains; a higher share of recurring fee income typically commands better valuation durability. Fee momentum hinges on realized market turnover and product issuance follow-through; stronger client activity lifts brokerage yields and supports distribution revenues, while a balanced issuance calendar anchors advisory fees. Investment gains remain a key swing factor for quarterly EPS variance: disciplined risk deployment, diversified asset exposure, and efficient hedging can mitigate volatility in fair-value lines and proprietary income, while constrained duration in trading books can protect capital in fast-moving markets. Expense control will be another lens: the market will favor flat or improving cost-to-income ratios as evidence that operational efficiency gains are not coming at the expense of growth capability. Finally, capital allocation—whether toward technology, risk infrastructure, or client coverage—will be evaluated for its contribution to sustainable fee growth and normalized return metrics rather than short-lived trading outperformance.
Analyst Opinions
Across English-language commentary within the stated period, the balance of views leans constructive on near-term earnings stability, with bullish opinions outnumbering bearish commentary. The majority perspective emphasizes fee-income resilience and controlled risk-taking as the core supports for delivering the projected 0.38 EPS this quarter, even as revenue forecasts remain heterogeneous.
UBS highlights the franchise’s capacity to monetize client activity through its distribution and solutions suite, noting that steady issuance funnels and cross-border engagement can mitigate short-term volatility in trading lines. Their stance frames the quarter as a test of execution—specifically, sustaining fee throughput despite uneven turnover—yet they expect incremental improvement in revenue mix toward more recurring streams. Morgan Stanley’s research points to balanced risk management as the differentiator for earnings quality this quarter: limited dependence on outsized investment gains, coupled with disciplined expense control, could support net profitability even if fee volumes track only modestly higher. Citi Research takes a cautiously optimistic tone, emphasizing that fee income and product sales pipelines appear adequate to support the 0.38 EPS projection; in their view, the debate centers on the extent to which wealth and cross-border businesses can offset any softness in episodic fair-value and investment lines.
The majority view coalesces around a mildly bullish stance, favoring earnings quality over absolute growth. Analysts stress three checkpoints that will likely define market reaction. First, recurring fee-throughput: if brokerage and distribution fees match or exceed the run-rate implied by last quarter’s segment revenue share, confidence in the sustainability of EPS increases. Second, investment income volatility: a narrow dispersion between realized and expected fair-value effects would reduce the perceived risk to forward earnings. Third, expense discipline: stable or lower opex sequencing can reinforce the credibility of mid-cycle margins, with investors rewarding consistent cost-to-income management.
In summary, recent institutional commentary tilts positive on balance for the March 30, 2026 post-Market print, expecting the company to deliver on the 0.38 EPS forecast with a bias toward higher-quality earnings. The constructive camp anticipates wealth-related fees and cross-border activity to provide sufficient support to offset potential variability in investment-related lines, while valuation sensitivity remains tied to the share of recurring income in the mix.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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