GF Securities has released a research report stating that the peak-season sales of baijiu during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday are expected to remain under pressure, and most baijiu companies' third-quarter results are likely to stay subdued. After four years of adjustment, the baijiu sector is expected to enter a new development cycle in 2026. In the mass consumer goods segment, some sub-tracks had already stabilized in 2025, and looking ahead to 2026, industry ton prices are expected to rise modestly, with promising individual stock opportunities driven by new products and new channels. The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
Baijiu: Cautious Stocking During Peak Season, Industry Still in Destocking Cycle
The third quarter of 2026 ushers in the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking peak season. Terminal feedback indicates relatively weak stocking willingness. Banquet scenarios during the dual festivals show relatively rigid demand, but government and business consumption scenarios are still recovering slowly, and baijiu sales during the holiday period are expected to remain under pressure. At this stage, most liquor companies are focusing on proactively reducing inventory and maintaining healthy,良性 channel conditions, rather than forcing distributors to stock up. The firm expects most baijiu companies' third-quarter results to remain under pressure, and anticipates that Kweichow Moutai, Jinshiyuan, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Liquor may see third-quarter revenue growth outperform the industry.
Beer: Industry Demand Remains Sluggish, Yanjing Beer Leads
In the third quarter of 2026, rainy weather continued to disrupt industry demand, and beer industry output declined more sharply compared to the second quarter on a year-over-year basis. Yanjing Beer, benefiting from reform dividends and the continued rapid growth of Yanjing U8, outperformed the industry.
Beverages and Dairy: Beverage Leaders Steady, Top Dairy Firms Perform Well
Among beverage companies, Eastroc Beverage's third-quarter revenue performance is expected to continue the trend from the second quarter, with profits benefiting from earlier PET price-locking cost advantages. Among dairy companies, Yili was relatively active in stocking for the dual festivals, and ambient liquid milk performance is expected to be better than the industry average. New Hope Dairy's profitability is expected to improve in the third quarter of 2026, and Milkground's cheese business is expected to continue strong growth in the same period.
Snack Retail Chains: Strong Growth in Bulk Discount Channels, Ximai Performs Well on the Manufacturing Side
In the snack bulk discount segment, Vanchen Group continued its rapid pace of store openings in the third quarter of 2026, with strong profitability driven by economies of scale. Among leisure food companies, Jinzai Food and Youyou Food benefited from volume expansion through bulk discount and Sam's Club channels, maintaining rapid revenue growth. Ximai Food, with a steady oat business complemented by new product contributions, is expected to accelerate growth. Qiaqia Food benefited from sunflower seed cost advantages, showing greater profit elasticity, while Jinzai and Jinzai Food maintained steady revenue but profitability may lag revenue growth due to cost, base, and structural factors.
Condiments: Overall Demand Flat, Watch for Cost Changes
Haitian, as the industry leader, maintained steady growth, while second-tier brands continued to explore new growth points in products and channels. Zhongju and Qianhe continued their recovery momentum. Consolidation in the condiment industry remains the medium-term theme, with leading companies having stable management systems, comprehensive channel coverage, and accelerated new product launches, and their market share is expected to continue rising.
Frozen Foods: Peak Season Stocking Recovers, Leaders Drive Price Increases
Accelerated stocking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season drove a sequential improvement in sales, and low-price competition in the industry decreased. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of continuously rising surimi prices, Anjoy was the first to issue a price adjustment letter to initiate price transmission, and its market share is expected to accelerate toward the leader, potentially guiding the industry toward more良性 development.
Health Supplements: Top Players Concentrating, Track Performance Diverging
In the third quarter of 2026, the overall industry size is expected to continue the growth trend from the first half of 2026. Top and mid-tier brands are strengthening their competitive advantages, with sales and market share showing an upward trend. The firm believes that under the trend of stricter industry regulation, small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to be phased out, and top brands and contract manufacturers are expected to capture larger shares. Bailong Chuangyuan's revenue is expected to maintain good growth.
Risk Warnings
Forward-looking estimates have limitations, macroeconomic conditions may fall short of expectations, consumption recovery may be weaker than anticipated, and food safety issues may arise.
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