On March 18th, the three major stock indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending a four-day losing streak. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 2.02%.
In terms of sectors, the computing power industry chain saw a strong performance. The CPO concept staged a full rebound, liquid cooling server concepts fluctuated with an upward trend, computing power leasing concepts strengthened, and memory chip concepts moved higher. On the downside, oil and gas stocks weakened, and the chemical sector declined.
Over 3,500 stocks rose across the market. The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was 2.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of 161.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading session.
Wind data shows that since February this year, the Wind All-A Index has repeatedly rebounded after falling to around 6600 points, forming a relatively "stable" lower boundary of a trading range.
The previous rebounds from the bottom followed a similar pattern: a strong recovery occurred the next day, specifically on February 3rd, February 10th, March 5th, and March 10th.
However, this week, the pace of recovery has noticeably slowed. After forming a lower shadow line on Monday, the index fell sharply again on Tuesday. Today (Wednesday), after another decline in the morning, it experienced a sustained rebound in the afternoon, closing the day with a slightly shorter lower shadow line.
The simplest and most direct reason is that market liquidity has shrunk, insufficient to support a "violent counterattack" for the indices. On the four previous strong rebound days, the total A-share trading volumes were 2.57 trillion yuan, 2.27 trillion yuan, 2.41 trillion yuan, and 2.42 trillion yuan, respectively. Today, the market trading volume was only 2.06 trillion yuan, hitting a new low for the month.
Nevertheless, individual stock sentiment has already begun to recover ahead of the indices, with the average price of all A-shares rising by 1.62%. Observing the predicted trading volume chart also reveals that although overall volume shrank, market trading activity slowly increased throughout the day.
This current price-volume relationship conveys at least two signals. First, underlying support remains at the bottom; if the expectation is still for a recovery, it is more likely to be a process of "trading time for space." Referring to the consolidation range from September to December last year, the market also experienced a rebound characterized by "small, fragmented gains" after single-day sharp declines, such as from November 24th to early December. Some intraday points that appear to be technical breakdowns represent both sentiment lows and potential opportunities for moderate speculation.
Second, after "extremely low volume" appears, even if trading volume might hit new lows in the short term, a turning point is often not far away. However, for investors with a trading style leaning towards the right side of the market, much like the capital that has already withdrawn to wait on the sidelines, "resting" or "observing more and acting less" before the arrival of a high-volume trading day remains a comfortable choice.
Returning to the sectors, it is evident that technology stocks, which led the recovery on Monday, were again at the forefront of gains today. Concepts like CPO and PCB showed sustained strength against the trend early in the morning.
On the news front, on March 16th local time, NVIDIA released the Feynman chip, introducing optical communication into inter-chip connectivity for the first time, potentially reducing AI data center communication energy consumption by over 70%. Dongwu Securities pointed out that according to the GTC conference, a single LPU server consists of 32 trays, with each tray integrating 8 LPU chips. Compared to previous cabinet architectures, the number of trays per cabinet (which can be equated to PCB quantity) has significantly increased, representing new incremental demand for the PCB sector.
Liquid cooling concept stocks also rebounded. Reports indicate that Google recently sent a team to mainland China specifically to inspect liquid cooling equipment for data center servers, a product crucial for the development of US artificial intelligence technology.
The memory chip concept has experienced significant volatility over the past three trading sessions, rising sharply after a major fall, potentially boosted by a strong rally in the South Korean stock market. Reports suggest that SK Hynix revealed that current DRAM and NAND inventories are only about 4 weeks, with insufficient supply from cloud providers to consumer electronics terminals. Vivo recently adjusted the retail prices of some products, citing ongoing significant increases in global semiconductor and memory costs, becoming another smartphone manufacturer to announce price hikes following OPPO and Honor. The semiconductor price increases are accelerating their transmission to end products.
Additionally, it is worth noting that the commercial aerospace sector, which had been adjusting for some time, also saw a recovery today, with prices engulfing the previous day's losses. Tianfeng Securities stated that recent domestic developments in the commercial aerospace industry are becoming visible, expressing optimism about subsequent catalytic effects and continuing to emphasize investment opportunities in core targets related to "AI + global expansion + satellites."
Guotai Haitong Securities believes the current market adjustment is not solely due to geopolitical conflicts. Seasonal effects accompanying the annual report season have叠加, jointly pushing the market into a consolidation phase. This period is more suitable for a defensive strategy, patiently waiting for a turning point. They noted that every year from mid-March to April, during the annual report disclosure period, the market enters a phase dominated by fundamentals. Compared to trend speculation during periods of high sentiment, investors now pay more attention to the actual value of enterprises. Coupled with geopolitical conflicts reducing market risk appetite, trading willingness declines, and activity becomes subdued. Except for a few sectors benefiting from geopolitical tensions, most sectors may perform relatively flat. This is a normal阶段性 characteristic of the market, and there is no need for excessive pessimism.
In the short term, it is crucial to monitor two key variables: first, the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of conflict negotiations. If consensus is reached, geopolitical disturbances will gradually dissipate, and market logic will return to normal. If conflicts persist, the impact of supply chain restructuring will be further amplified. Second, changes in domestic relevant data, especially the rise in the PPI indicator and its transmission to CPI. If the price system recovers smoothly and deflationary pressures in the economy ease, it will inject upward momentum into the market.
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