The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released its analysis of logistics operations for the first three quarters of 2026 on November 2.
During the first three quarters, China's logistics operations demonstrated a development pattern of "steady progress, simultaneous improvement in quality and efficiency, new growth drivers, and optimized structure." The total value of social logistics maintained relatively rapid growth and was highly coordinated with economic growth. Demand structure continued to upgrade toward new areas, with logistics demand in consumption and new growth driver sectors being released at an accelerated pace. The logistics supply system has become increasingly complete, multimodal transport has expanded in volume and improved in quality, and the international logistics network has been densified. The industry's prosperity level has remained in the expansion zone for consecutive periods. Policies have been precisely targeted, the facility network has been densified, and technological innovation empowerment has accelerated. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP continued its downward trend, and the achievements in effectively reducing logistics costs across society have been continuously consolidated. Micro-entities have persisted under pressure with undiminished resilience, and market expectations and operating efficiency have improved marginally.
Logistics demand grows steadily, with new momentum and improved structure
In the first three quarters, the total value of social logistics nationwide reached 280.0 trillion yuan, growing 4.9% year-on-year at comparable prices, with the growth rate retreating 0.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. By quarter, the first, second, and third quarters grew 6.2%, 4.4%, and 4.7% respectively. Since the third quarter, logistics demand growth has been generally stable. The cumulative and current-period growth rates of total social logistics value were 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points higher than GDP growth, respectively. The vitality of logistics demand as the core engine of economic circulation has been released in an orderly manner. The integration and innovation of industrial chains and supply chains have consolidated the foundation of resilience, further clearing bottlenecks in production, distribution, circulation, and consumption, providing solid support for the recovery and improvement of the real economy. From the perspective of demand structure, domestic production logistics demand has expanded steadily, import logistics structure adjustment has advanced, and the potential of livelihood and consumption logistics has been released in an orderly manner.
(1) Industrial goods logistics demand has a solid foundation
Logistics operations in the industrial sector have made steady progress with new momentum. In the first three quarters, the total value of industrial goods logistics grew 5.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate retreating slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the first half of the year, contributing 78% to the growth of total social logistics value. The core pillar position of industrial logistics demand has been consolidated. From an industry perspective, equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing played prominent leading roles, with their proportions rising to 37.6% and 18.3% respectively, and their year-on-year growth rates accelerating by 0.9 and 1.0 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. Among them, logistics demand related to integrated circuit manufacturing, spacecraft and launch vehicle manufacturing, and optoelectronic device manufacturing grew 79.2%, 36.2%, and 28.4% respectively, with related logistics demand growth rates significantly faster than the average level of industrial goods. From the perspective of physical volume of industrial goods logistics, the physical logistics volume of traditional bulk commodities such as crude steel and cement was generally stable. Logistics volumes of new products such as smart bracelets, 3D printing equipment, and sensors grew 77.1%, 62.5%, and 16.4% respectively. Production of intelligent production equipment such as industrial control computers and systems grew by over 25%. The pace of upgrading industrial goods logistics demand toward new areas has clearly accelerated.
(2) Import logistics demand continues structural adjustment
Against the backdrop of a complex and ever-changing external environment, import logistics has shown operational characteristics of "declining volume but increasing value, with structural improvement." In the first three quarters, the total value of import logistics declined 0.2% year-on-year, retreating 2.4 percentage points from the first half of the year, with overall physical volume demand slowing. During the same period, the value of goods imports maintained relatively rapid growth, reflecting a notable increase in the value per unit of imported goods, with categories upgrading toward high value-added and high-tech content. From the perspective of cargo category structure, import logistics volumes showed clear divergence. Energy and resource-related logistics volumes slowed somewhat. In the first three quarters, import logistics volumes of crude oil and refined oil declined 15.3% and 21.8% year-on-year respectively, while copper ore and concentrates, unwrought copper and copper products, and steel products declined 2.9%, 6.5%, and 10.5% respectively. Mechanical and electrical high-tech products grew steadily. Import logistics volumes of integrated circuits grew 7.2%, diodes and similar semiconductor devices grew 4.1%, and machine tools grew 5.8%. Agricultural products expanded in scale. Grain import logistics volume grew 9.7%, dried and fresh fruits and nuts grew 2.4%; imports of premium consumer goods such as fresh durians, salmon, and olive oil grew 3.3 times, 41.4%, and 28.5% respectively.
(3) Unit and resident, and commercial logistics demand released steadily
With the active implementation of special actions to boost consumption and related measures, the potential of logistics demand related to units and residents has been released in an orderly manner. In the first three quarters, the total value of unit and resident goods logistics grew 2.9% year-on-year, continuing a steady growth momentum. Among them, online new consumption logistics demand showed good growth momentum. In the first three quarters, online retail sales of goods grew 3.8%, and instant retail transaction value maintained double-digit growth. Retail sales of wearable smart devices and high energy-efficiency home appliances grew by over 70% and 20% respectively. Online shopping categories such as cold-chain fresh food, home appliances and 3C products, and cultural tourism and outdoor products maintained high popularity. The pulling effect of emerging consumption models on unit and resident logistics has strengthened. Offline physical commercial logistics demand has risen steadily. Retail sales of warehouse membership stores and shopping centers grew by over 25% and 10% respectively. Rural consumer goods retail sales growth outpaced urban areas by 1.4 percentage points. County-level commercial and rural logistics networks have been continuously improved, and logistics demand in lower-tier markets has been released at an accelerated pace.
(4) High-end and green logistics demand shows strong growth
With the advancement of domestic industrial structure adjustment and the cultivation and growth of new quality productive forces, the driving effects of logistics demand related to industrial chains undergoing high-end, intelligent, and green transformation have emerged. In the first three quarters, the total value of renewable resource logistics grew 3.6% year-on-year. Green logistics areas such as low-carbon and circular recycling continued relatively rapid growth, with strong logistics demand in recycling, transportation, and processing segments. In the first three quarters, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 60% for six consecutive months, with retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles surpassing 7.7 million units. Logistics volume related to production of automotive lithium-ion power batteries grew 43.5% year-on-year. Artificial intelligence-related logistics has become a new growth point. In the first three quarters, exports of electronic components grew 70%. Smart terminals such as AI glasses and intelligent bionic robots accelerated their overseas expansion, and the full-chain logistics demand system is taking shape at an accelerated pace.
Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement results consolidated, logistics efficiency steadily improved
Since the beginning of this year, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP has been on a downward trajectory. In the first three quarters, total social logistics costs reached 14.8 trillion yuan, growing 4.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate retreating 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP was 14.0% in the first quarter, 13.9% in the first half, and fell to 13.8% in the first three quarters, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Based on the logistics costs incurred per 100 yuan of GDP created, the cumulative decline of 0.2 percentage points corresponds to savings of over 210 billion yuan in logistics costs, with cost reduction dividends continuously being released to the real economy. During the same period, international commodity prices rose significantly, with the national industrial producer price index (PPI) rising 2.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters. With fuel cost increases permeating the industrial chain, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP still achieved both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year declines, indicating that structural factors such as transportation structure optimization, logistics network efficiency improvement, and organizational model improvement have to some extent offset the supply chain and logistics cost pressures brought by upstream price increases. Specifically: from a structural perspective, triple optimization of economy, transportation, and demand drives structural cost reduction. In terms of economic structure, the proportion of manufacturing in the first three quarters rose steadily, with the proportion of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 1.6 percentage points. The contribution rate of new industrial momentum exceeded 50%. The physical logistics volume per unit of GDP tended to decline while cargo value increased, compressing logistics demand intensity to some extent. In terms of demand structure, the internal structure of industrial goods, import, and unit and resident logistics value optimized steadily. Demand in key areas migrated from bulk raw materials to high-tech, high value-added, and livelihood consumer products. In terms of transportation structure, the optimization trend continued in the first three quarters. Overall, freight turnover growth outpaced freight volume growth in the first three quarters, with average transport distance lengthening and long-distance, cross-regional transport demand increasing. From the perspective of major transport modes, railway, highway, and waterway freight turnover grew 5.7%, 2.9%, and 6.0% year-on-year respectively. Railway and waterway turnover growth rates were 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points higher than highway, and 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points higher than the average level of freight turnover. Railway and waterway, the two transport modes with relatively lower unit costs, grew faster, together accounting for 69.4% of freight turnover, basically flat compared with earlier periods and the same period, with the dominant position of low-cost, green transport modes consolidated and the direction of transportation structure adjustment toward optimization clear. The triple structural optimization in the same direction drove the ratio of transport costs to GDP down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year in the first three quarters. From the perspective of organizational methods, the level of logistics integration and networking has steadily improved. In terms of network coordination, multimodal coordination among railway, waterway, and highway improved. Statistics for the first three quarters show that container rail-water intermodal volume and rail-highway intermodal volume maintained growth year-on-year. The role of the multimodal transport development alliance gradually emerged, and cross-modal matching efficiency improved. In terms of logistics organization models, supply chain integrated logistics supply grew rapidly. Key survey data show that in the first three quarters, the number of supply chain contract orders for key logistics enterprises grew 19.8% year-on-year, and integrated logistics business revenue grew 18.7% year-on-year. Enterprises actively transformed toward value-creating partners, helping to slow inventory occupation and turnover costs. On the industrial side, the product sales rate reflecting production-sales alignment for industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded 0.2 percentage points month-on-month in September, while the average inventory turnover index on the logistics side rebounded 1 percentage point, indicating that while logistics organization methods upgraded and expanded, industrial and logistics circulation accelerated, inventory destocking continued, and logistics turnover efficiency improved. In the first three quarters, the ratio of storage costs to GDP was basically flat compared with the previous year. From the perspective of basic networks, logistics network construction has accelerated, and connectivity efficiency has continuously strengthened. Investment scale expanded and structure improved. From January to September, fixed asset investment related to logistics such as transportation, warehousing, and postal services grew 1.9% year-on-year, with investment in air transport and water transport growing 13.8% and 13.5% respectively. Investment structure improved, with key areas showing prominent growth. Key projects advanced at an accelerated pace. The Pinglu Canal officially opened to navigation in September, opening a new river-sea intermodal channel from the southwest region to ASEAN. The Three Gorges Water Transport New Channel project advanced, and logistics hub functions in multiple locations were upgraded at an accelerated pace. The international logistics network has been continuously densified, with cross-border transport capacity expanded. In the first three quarters, China-Europe freight trains operated 16,000 trips cumulatively, growing 15% year-on-year. Central Asia freight trains operated 11,000 trips cumulatively, growing 2% year-on-year. International route cargo and mail volume reached 3.553 million tons cumulatively, growing 12.1% year-on-year. A total of 130 new international air cargo routes were opened. International all-cargo aircraft routes expanded, and the coverage of international logistics corridors continued to broaden, with supply strongly supporting scale growth. Major projects and hub networks have formed synergies, further enhancing the overall connectivity of the logistics infrastructure network and its supporting capacity for industrial and supply chains. From the perspective of technology and equipment, digital-intelligent and green transformation has released efficiency improvements. Since the beginning of this year, the level of intelligence, greening, and digitalization of logistics equipment has steadily improved. Automated stereoscopic warehouses, intelligent sorting robots, unmanned forklifts, and green equipment have been promoted and applied at an accelerated pace. Multiple leading express delivery enterprises have deployed over a thousand unmanned vehicles, reducing labor costs in sorting and last-mile delivery. In the first three quarters, the cumulative penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 38%. New energy logistics vehicles and lightweight trailers reduced unit transport energy consumption, directly offsetting fuel price increase pressures. Digital scenarios such as intelligent forecasting, route optimization, inventory management, and load matching have been popularized at an accelerated pace. In the first three quarters, digital transformation investment by key logistics enterprises grew by approximately 10% year-on-year. Dynamic allocation capacity of logistics resources strengthened, and the efficiency results of technology investment began to emerge. From the perspective of policies and institutions, policy supply and funding guarantees have been synergistically strengthened. This year is a critical year for tackling the key challenges of the Action Plan for Effectively Reducing Social Logistics Costs. In terms of planning and deployment, with the approval of the State Council in August, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Logistics Network Construction, deploying 17 key tasks in 7 aspects, with logistics network construction advancing from top-level planning to comprehensive implementation. In terms of funding guarantees, investment in key areas such as the "six networks" and comprehensive three-dimensional transportation facilities will exceed 7 trillion yuan during the year. Recently, the state also revitalized 250 billion yuan of local government special bond balance limits to support expanded effective investment in key areas such as the construction of the "six networks." Network-based layout has compressed average transport distances and transit links, driving logistics cost reduction from individual policy support to systematic facility and institutional construction.
Logistics supply and demand well matched, service prices stabilizing and rising
Since the beginning of this year, the logistics supply system has become increasingly complete, effectively supporting the needs of economic circulation. In the first three quarters, total logistics industry revenue maintained an expansion trend, reaching 11.1 trillion yuan nationwide, growing 4.3% year-on-year. The logistics industry prosperity level was good, with the average logistics prosperity index at 50.3% in the first three quarters. Logistics supply and demand were well matched, service prices in key areas stabilized and rose, and micro-entity operations showed signs of improvement.
(1) Logistics service prices stabilized and rebounded amid fluctuations
In the first three quarters, logistics service prices generally showed a trend of "stabilizing at low levels and recovering moderately." With the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and support from traditional peak season demand, price changes and competitive dynamics in different sub-sectors showed positive changes. The supply-demand pattern in the highway transport market improved. In September, the China Highway Logistics Freight Price Index was 105.1 points, rebounding 0.14% month-on-month and 0.06% year-on-year. Indexes for various vehicle types including full truckload and less-than-truckload all rebounded month-on-month, supporting the stabilization and recovery of the freight price index. The "anti-involution" results in express delivery services have been somewhat consolidated. In September, express delivery revenue per parcel rose 3.5% year-on-year and increased by approximately 0.15 yuan month-on-month. Since the third quarter, industry prices have stabilized and rebounded month-on-month, with express delivery service competition accelerating its shift from "trading price for volume" to "simultaneous improvement in quality and price." Water transport showed divergence between domestic coastal and foreign trade container shipping. The coastal market was affected by seasonal weakening of bulk demand such as coal and high coal prices suppressing terminal procurement, resulting in oversupply of capacity. In September, the monthly average of the coastal (bulk cargo) comprehensive freight price index was 1,113.96 points, down 8.2% month-on-month. However, the cumulative average for the first three quarters was 1,156.5 points, growing 13.2% year-on-year. The export container market performed steadily, with freight rates on most routes rising. In September, the monthly average of the China Export Container Comprehensive Freight Price Index was 1,887.6 points, up 2.8% from the previous month's average. The cumulative average for the first three quarters was 1,476.8 points, growing 19.4% year-on-year. Service price levels in key areas generally improved.
(2) Micro-entity operating conditions improved marginally
Despite facing a complex external environment, logistics micro-entities demonstrated strong resilience, with operating conditions improving marginally. From the perspective of industry prosperity, the China Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.5% in September, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months, corroborating the manufacturing PMI's return above the boom-or-bust line, with logistics business activities trending toward greater activity. From the perspective of revenue and costs, revenue of key logistics enterprises grew 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with the growth rate 0.6 percentage points higher than January-August. Costs per 100 yuan of operating revenue for key logistics enterprises were 95 yuan, down 0.5 yuan and 0.4 yuan from the same period last year and January-August respectively, with enterprise operating efficiency showing marginal improvement. From the perspective of sub-sectors, express delivery and cross-border logistics showed obvious recovery momentum, with leading enterprises accelerating their transformation from traditional transport and warehousing service providers to comprehensive logistics integrators. Overall, in the first three quarters of 2026, China's logistics operations showed a development pattern of "steady progress with new momentum and optimization." Social logistics demand was generally coordinated with economic growth, and demand structure upgraded toward new areas. The ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP continued its downward trajectory, with cost reduction and efficiency enhancement results consolidated. New growth drivers such as multimodal transport, digital-intelligent transformation, and greening accelerated their growth. In the fourth quarter, positive factors for logistics operations are accumulating. From the demand perspective, with the arrival of e-commerce peak seasons such as "Double Eleven" and year-end production rush, logistics demand is expected to be released in a concentrated manner. E-commerce express delivery, maritime transport, and other sectors will usher in traditional peak seasons, and total social logistics value may further rebound. From the expectations perspective, the business activity expectation index for the logistics industry was 56.2% in September, rebounding 1.8 percentage points month-on-month. The fixed asset investment completion index rebounded 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and has remained in a high prosperity zone for multiple consecutive months, with enterprise investment willingness and market expectations strengthening simultaneously. From the policy perspective, existing and incremental policies are working together. Local government special bond balance limits support the accelerated formation of physical work volumes in the construction of the "six networks," and the effects of previous economic and logistics industry policies will continue to emerge. Based on comprehensive judgment, logistics operations in the fourth quarter are expected to continue the pattern of steady progress with simultaneous improvement in quality and efficiency. Modern logistics will provide strong guarantees for the recovery and improvement of the real economy and the achievement of annual economic and social development goals through high-quality development.
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