As AI computing power grows rapidly, the thermal management industry urgently requires new materials with higher thermal conductivity, electrical insulation, and matched CTE, bringing diamond into focus. Diamond possesses advantages such as high thermal conductivity, compatibility with semiconductor materials, and high-temperature resistance. Among the three main technical pathways, diamond-copper composites show the most comprehensive advantages, offering better processability, controllable costs, and high cost-effectiveness for mass production. MPCVD has become the mainstream method for large-scale manufacturing of high-end diamond heat sinks due to its high purity and controllability.
Calculations indicate that under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the global market size for diamond heat dissipation in AI chips by 2030 could reach 26.8 billion, 35.7 billion, and 44.6 billion yuan, respectively.
AI Chip Evolution Necessitates Diamond Cooling
As chip manufacturing processes approach physical limits, the industry is shifting towards 2.5D/3D heterogeneous integration to sustain performance gains. 3D stacking, composed of multiple thin chips, places the middle layers far from the heat sink, limiting heat dissipation paths. When combined with single-chip power consumption exceeding 1000W and local heat flux density surpassing 1000 W/cm², traditional copper heat sinks (thermal conductivity ~400 W/m·K) have reached their physical limit. The industry's urgent need for new materials with higher thermal conductivity, electrical insulation, and compatible CTE has brought diamond into the spotlight.
Advantages of Diamond Heat Dissipation
1) Diamond's thermal conductivity is 3-5 times that of copper. Using a diamond heat spreader can reduce GPU temperature by over 10°C, increase computing power by 15%-22%, and support operating ambient temperatures up to 50°C.
2) Diamond is highly compatible with semiconductor materials like silicon, gallium nitride, and silicon carbide, significantly reducing thermal stress between the chip and the cooling material.
3) Unlike metal heat dissipation materials such as copper or aluminum, diamond does not cause chip leakage, short circuits, or interfere with high-frequency electrical signal transmission.
4) Diamond withstands temperatures above 600°C, is corrosion and radiation-resistant, and offers far greater stability than traditional cooling materials.
Three Technical Pathways for Diamond Heat Dissipation Materials
The primary pathways are diamond matrix composites (diamond-copper, diamond-aluminum, diamond-silicon carbide), single-crystal diamond, and polycrystalline diamond. Single-crystal and polycrystalline diamond are pure diamond materials, offering ultra-high thermal conductivity and excellent insulation. They are suitable for full-scenario applications like substrates, heat sinks, and microchannels, targeting high-end, ultra-high-power cooling needs.
Among diamond matrix composites, diamond-copper offers the most comprehensive advantages. Compared to pure diamond materials, it provides greater processability, controllable costs, and higher cost-effectiveness for mass production.
High Barriers for CVD Diamond Heat Sink Equipment
MPCVD has become the mainstream method for large-scale manufacturing of high-end diamond heat sinks due to its high purity and controllability. The key barriers include: 1) High-frequency electromagnetic field design determines the spatial distribution uniformity of the plasma; 2) Microwave power stability determines the wafer growth rate and defect density; 3) Chamber sealing and vacuum control determine the level of impurity introduction; 4) Temperature field uniformity directly affects wafer stress distribution (warpage) and yield.
Data Center AI Chip Demand for Diamond Cooling
According to DIGITIMESAsia forecasts, global data center AI chip shipments are expected to reach approximately 38.05 million units in 2026, potentially rising to 53.41 million units by 2030. 2026 is considered the inaugural year for the commercial application of diamond cooling in AI chips, with an estimated penetration rate of 1%. Under a conservative scenario, the penetration rate could rise to 12% by 2030; a neutral expectation sees it reaching 16%; an optimistic projection anticipates 20%.
Based on these projections, the calculated global market size for diamond heat dissipation in AI chips by 2030 is approximately 26.8 billion yuan under the conservative scenario, 35.7 billion yuan under the neutral scenario, and 44.6 billion yuan under the optimistic scenario.
Investment Considerations
Investors may consider monitoring companies such as Zhengzhou Sino-Crystal Diamond Co.,Ltd, Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.,Ltd, Sinomach Precision Industry Co.,Ltd, Wolrdia, Power Diamond, and Huifeng Diamond.
Potential Risks
Risks include slower-than-expected industrial progress, intensifying industry competition, fluctuations in raw material prices, and geopolitical uncertainties.
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