According to Woofun AI, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1 billion in capital this week, marking a preliminary rebound in institutional investor interest for the crypto asset. However, the pace of these inflows falls far short of the threshold needed to trigger a historic major rally.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus, noted that while demand is showing signs of improvement, capital flows remain unstable. Only sustained and strong net inflows can confirm a more robust recovery for BTC. Historical data strongly supports this view: every past major bull market that drove BTC prices up more than 50% with a drawdown not exceeding 20% had average daily net inflows exceeding $200 million. Since the ETF launch in January 2024, BTC has experienced three such rallies, and the current pace of capital flow appears far too slow by comparison.
Looking back at the three previous major rallies, the intensity and continuity of capital inflows served as the core driving force behind price surges. The first rally occurred from January 23 to March 14, 2024, when BTC prices jumped from approximately $39,900 to $71,400, a gain of 79%. During this period, these funds attracted an average of $294 million in daily inflows, with 10 days seeing inflows above $500 million and one day exceeding $1 billion.
The second rally took place from August 5 to December 17, 2024, with BTC prices climbing from about $54,100 to $106,100, a gain of 96%. During that period, average daily inflows were $202 million, with 16 days seeing inflows above $500 million and three days exceeding $1 billion. The third rally spanned from April 6 to July 14, 2025, with BTC prices rising from approximately $78,400 to $119,900, a gain of 53%. Average daily inflows at that time were $248 million, with 13 days seeing inflows above $500 million and two days exceeding $1 billion.
Over these 199 trading days, these funds attracted a total of $46.7 billion in capital inflows, averaging approximately $235 million per day. Of these, 39 days saw inflows above $500 million and six days exceeded $1 billion. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, across these three bull markets, average daily inflows consistently remained above $200 million, with large inflow days occurring frequently, building a solid foundation for upward price momentum. In contrast, the current pace of capital inflows has slowed significantly, making it difficult to replicate previous stellar performances.
Since July 1, BTC prices have risen from approximately $60,000 to $83,500, a gain of 39%. During this period, these funds had only seven days with inflows above $500 million, occurring roughly once every 11 trading days, compared to approximately once every five trading days during the previous three major rallies. Current average daily inflows stand at approximately $86 million, far below the $200 million-plus levels seen during those major advances, and there has yet to be a single day with inflows exceeding $1 billion.
This gap in capital intensity directly reflects the caution and divergence in current market sentiment. If history serves as a guide, for BTC to experience another major rally, it would need to maintain a steady pace of capital inflows, raising average daily inflows above $200 million and increasing the frequency of large inflow days. However, history can only serve as a reference and cannot guarantee future trends. Additionally, demand from directly purchasing BTC tokens through futures markets or other channels could also drive BTC prices higher, meaning ETF data is not the sole pricing anchor.
From a structural perspective, the current market is in a critical verification period. Although the $1.08 billion weekly inflow is encouraging, the underlying average daily intensity and sustainability remain insufficient. Investors need to be wary of capital flow volatility and watch for whether more large-scale capital enters to confirm the sustainability of this rally. The more critical variable lies in whether demand from non-ETF channels can fill this gap and jointly push BTC to break through its current consolidation range. This marks an important moment for the market to face another directional choice since the rally ended in July 2025.
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