Is Lululemon Stock A Buy Or Sell After Q2 Earnings? Key Risk Is Lower-Than-Expected Profitability

Seeking Alpha2021-09-17

Summary Lululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the past few months, as a result of better-than-expected financial performance in 1H 2021. LULU achieved ...

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Comments

Joycelinsng
2021-09-28
Joycelinsng
Hold
- TimTamPrata:
  Huat
KeeBoonTong
2021-09-17
KeeBoonTong
Lalalala
- KeeBoonTong:
  lalala
Fonkytonks
2021-09-17
Fonkytonks
Buy
MrHuattt
2021-09-17
MrHuattt
Ok
- MrHuattt:
  Ok
james33738
2021-09-17
james33738
Yesd
- TerenceTan:
  like and comment
Aeron2020
2021-09-17
Aeron2020
Ok
- james33738:
  Ok

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Key Risk Is Lower-Than-Expected Profitability\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-17 17:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455585-lululemon-stock-buy-sell-q2-earnings><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the past few months, as a result of better-than-expected financial performance in 1H 2021.\nLULU achieved ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455585-lululemon-stock-buy-sell-q2-earnings\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LULU","symbol_name":"lululemon athletica","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455585-lululemon-stock-buy-sell-q2-earnings","article_id":"1139296336","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139296336","pubTimestamp":1631871404,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nLululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the pa","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LULU":"lululemon athletica"},"translate_title":"在第二季度盈利后，Lululemon股票是买还是卖？关键风险是盈利能力低于预期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LULU":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nLululemon's share price has done much better than the key benchmark stock indices in the past few months, as a result of better-than-expected financial performance in 1H 2021.\nLULU achieved strong top line and bottom line growth in Q2 2021 which also beat market expectations, but lower-than-expected profitability for the company going forward is a key downside risk.\nI see Lululemon stock as Hold after Q2 earnings, as its valuations are expensive, and an earnings miss in the future could de-rate its shares.\n\njentakespictures/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nElevator Pitch\nI assign a Neutral rating to Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU).\nLululemon has delivered significant stock price outperformance as compared to the major benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months, and the stock's current valuations are not that appealing following its recent share price run. Larger-than-expected investments in the near future, an unfavorable sales mix with the introduction of new footwear products next year, and potential supply chain disruptions could be a potential drag on LULU's forward earnings.\nMy rating for Lululemon is a Hold or Neutral. On one hand, I am positive on LULU's better-than-expected Q2 results and its long-term growth prospects. On the flip side, LULU's premium valuations and recent share price run have priced in the near-term positives for the company, while there are downside risks relating to its future earnings outlook.\nCompany Description\nIn its press releases, Lululemon Athletica Inc refers to itself as \"a healthy lifestyle inspired athletic apparel company for yoga, running, training, and most other sweaty pursuits\". LULU was established in 1998, and the company's shares were listed on the Nasdaq in 2007.\nAs of August 1, 2021, Lululemon boasted a network of 534 storesthat are located in 17 different markets. LULU generated 69%, 14% and 17%of the company's revenue from the US, Canada and international markets, respectively in the first half of FY 2021. The company-operated stores, the direct-to-consumer business, and others contributed 46%, 43% and 11% of its 1H 2021 sales, respectively. In the company's most recent 10-Q filing, Lululemon Athletica defines the others business segment as \"outlets, temporary locations, sales to wholesale accounts, license and supply arrangements, and MIRROR (home gym business acquired in2020).\"\nLululemon Stock Price\nLululemon's stock price increased by +20.4% and +32.8% in the year-to-date and past one-year time periods, respectively which tracked the performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite very closely. However, LULU started to outperform the key benchmark stock indices in the last couple of months. In the past six months, Lululemon's share price rose by+33.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were only up in the low-teens percentages over the same period. In the last three months, LULU's shares went up by +25.0%, as compared to the +7.7% and +5.5% increases for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, respectively during the same time.\nLULU's earnings beat for both the first and second quarter of 2021 clearly helped to drive the company's recent strong stock price performance. More significantly, Lululemon Athletica's above-expectations financial performance in the first half of this year implies that the company has structural growth drivers working in its favor, instead of merely being a beneficiary of one-off Work-From-Home or WFH tailwinds during the peak of COVID-19.\nAt its recent second-quarter results briefing, Lululemon noted that \"the pandemic drove forward, accelerated some of the guest behaviors that play to the strength of our brand\" which included \"general fitness awareness\", \"being well, living well\" and \"the importance of functional apparel\". The company also emphasized that its \"brand is early innings across product with activities where we focus on\" and \"gaining market share across categories\".\nSeparately, it is critical to examine if whether Lululemon's recent share price outperformance makes it less attractive as a potential investment candidate in terms of valuations.\nPeer Valuation Comparison For LULU\n\n\n\nStock\nConsensus Current Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple\nConsensus Forward One Fiscal Year Normalized P/E Multiple\nConsensus Current Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric\nConsensus Forward One Fiscal Year Revenue Growth Metric\nConsensus Current Fiscal Year ROE Metric\nConsensus Forward One Fiscal Year ROE Metric\n\n\nLululemon\n56.0\n47.1\n+41.6%\n+15.0%\n33.4%\n34.8%\n\n\nCanada Goose Holdings Inc. (GOOS)\n40.8\n26.8\n+21.7%\n+18.2%\n18.7%\n21.3%\n\n\nUnder Armour, Inc. (UAA)\n38.7\n34.0\n+23.0%\n+5.3%\n13.4%\n14.8%\n\n\nNIKE, Inc. (NKE)\n37.2\n31.5\n+12.4%\n+10.0%\n47.1%\n47.6%\n\n\nadidas AG (OTCQX:ADDYY) (OTCQX:ADDDF) [ADS:GR]\n38.8\n29.0\n+10.6%\n+12.1%\n22.5%\n25.2%\n\n\n\nSource: S&P Capital IQ\nAs per the peer comparison table presented above, Lululemon is valued by the market at a significant premium to the company's listed peers with respect to forward P/E valuation metrics. LULU does boast superior revenue growth prospects as compared to all of its peers, while its forecasted ROEs are higher than the majority of its peers as well. As such, Lululemon does deserve to trade at higher P/E multiples than that of its peers, but the stock's lofty valuations are not very attractive on an absolute basis if one wants to consider it as an investment candidate.\nLULU Stock Earnings\nLULU reported its Q2 2021 earnings on September 8, 2021 after trading hours, and the company's stock price jumped by +11% the next day, from $380.85 to $420.71. It is clear that the market is very satisfied with Lululemon's recent quarterly financial performance.\nLULU's top line expanded by +61% YoY from $903 million in Q2 2020 to $1,451 million in Q2 2021, while its non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share increased by +123% YoY from $0.74 to$1.65over the same period. Notably, Lululemon's revenue and earnings per share were+9% and +39% higher than the market consensus' forecasts, respectively based on S&P Capital IQ data. As I highlighted in the preceding section with reference to the management's comments, athleisure continues to see strong demand, and Lululemon is a key beneficiary as the leading brand in this segment, which explains the company's good quarterly financial results.\nSpecifically, the excellent performance of Lululemon's international and e-commerce businesses in the recent quarter is noteworthy. LULU's revenue from international markets grew by +49% YoY in Q2 2021, and this was equivalent to a two-year CAGR of +43%. Lululemon highlighted at the company's Q2 earnings call that \"our international business is ahead of the four times growth (revenue target) we put out to be completed by the end of 2023.\"\nOn the other hand, LULU's e-commerce sales still increased by+4%YoY (adjusted for foreign exchange effects) in Q2 2021, despite an exceptionally high base in Q2 2020 (+157% YoY e-commerce sales growth). This translates to a two-year e-commerce sales CAGR of approximately +66%. Lululemonrevealedthat it is implementing new initiatives to further drive the growth of its e-commerce business, which includes \"expanding our alternative payment methods, improved storytelling, more predictive search and a more seamless checkout.\"\nMoving ahead, Lululemon is guiding for $6.19-$6.26 billion in revenue and $7.38-$7.48 in earnings per share for full-year fiscal 2021. This is aligned with Wall Street analysts' consensus top line and bottom line of $6.233 billion and $7.48, which translate to YoY growth rates of +41.6% and +59.2%, respectively as per S&P Capital IQ data.\nHowever, there is a real risk that the company disappoints on profitability in the coming quarters.\nFirstly, Lululemon's future investments could be larger than expected. The company guided at its recent results call for FY 2021 SG&A (Selling, General & Administrative) \"deleverage of 10 to 30 basis points versus 2020\" and an increase in capital expenditures this year. LULU attributed this to \"our investment in MIRROR (highlighted in \"Company Description\" section) brand building\", \"MIRROR shop-in-shops\" and \"increased investment in our supply chain, digital capabilities, new store openings and renovations.\" It is not unusual for actual investments to turn out to be greater than what companies budget for.\nSecondly, LULU's introduction of footwear products in 2022 could be negative for the company's overall gross profit margin. At its 1Q 2021 earnings call in June 2021, Lululemon mentioned that \"we are bringing footwear next year.\" As a new product line which will begin with relatively lower volume, footwear products are likely to have lower gross profit margins than LULU's existing core products. In other words, Lululemon's sales mix could be less favorable next year, and this could translate to lower gross margins for the company as a whole.\nThirdly, lock-downs in Vietnam relating to COVID-19 could have an adverse impact on the company's business operations. Lululemon acknowledged at its Q2 2021 results briefing that the Vietnam production disruption \"is currently impacting approximately 20% of our second half inventory\", with the country accounting for \"30% of our finished goods.\" A September 13, 2021 Seeking Alpha news article quoted research from BTIG which mentioned that there are \"supply risks in the apparel and footwear sector as the negative impact of Vietnam factory closures becomes clearer.\" LULU's current full-year guidance is based onthe assumptionthat Southern Vietnam commences its re-opening process this month, and if that does not happen, Lululemon's financial numbers in the subsequent quarters could potentially come in below expectations.\nIs LULU Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?\nLULU stock is a Hold based on my analysis.\nI fear that Lululemon could suffer from a valuation de-rating, assuming that the company's future quarterly earnings fall short of market expectations as a result of the various factors that I highlighted in the previous section. That said, I do acknowledge that LULU is the market leader in athleisure with significantmarket share, and its medium-term growth prospects are excellent, especially for the international and e-commerce segments. Considering both the positives and negatives associated with the stock, my opinion is that a Hold rating is fair for Lululemon.\nLULU's key risks are actual investments exceeding its original budget, a failure to ramp up sales of its new footwear products next year to achieve economies of scale, and prolonged lock-downs in Vietnam which bring greater-than-expected disruptions for the company.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":866715620,"gmtCreate":1632806028160,"gmtModify":1676530859503,"author":{"id":"3577251918188197","authorId":"3577251918188197","name":"Joycelinsng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa80264c581342ecd56fa828ec7fcd0f","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Hold","listText":"Hold","text":"Hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/866715620","repostId":1139296336,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6024384,"gmtCreate":1632818922598,"gmtModify":1663234583638,"authorId":3581478820646520,"author":{"id":3581478820646520,"authorId":3581478820646520,"name":"TimTamPrata","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7112dd358a087dca78af99b862816363","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":866715620,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Huat","text":"Huat","html":"Huat"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":884853480,"gmtCreate":1631881666940,"gmtModify":1676530660356,"author":{"id":"3578717603960999","authorId":"3578717603960999","name":"KeeBoonTong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815864515bc02d554ba00b04f5f46a1a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dee1aa3a3a3c1814833a4d3f8a5669","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Lalalala","listText":"Lalalala","text":"Lalalala","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884853480","repostId":1139296336,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5903249,"gmtCreate":1631881673792,"gmtModify":1663234025233,"authorId":3578717603960999,"author":{"id":3578717603960999,"authorId":3578717603960999,"name":"KeeBoonTong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815864515bc02d554ba00b04f5f46a1a","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884853480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>lalala</u>","text":"<u>lalala</u>","html":"<u>lalala</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884814380,"gmtCreate":1631878212740,"gmtModify":1676530659420,"author":{"id":"3559873043762670","authorId":"3559873043762670","name":"Fonkytonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dfa5c5b6a3eb44de87d5ed63482f16c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884814380","repostId":1139296336,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884891756,"gmtCreate":1631875489875,"gmtModify":1676530658664,"author":{"id":"4089116574465250","authorId":"4089116574465250","name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e67f8f8c2b0192fadc4cd499a84e6c8b","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884891756","repostId":1139296336,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5902533,"gmtCreate":1631875495653,"gmtModify":1663234021642,"authorId":4089116574465250,"author":{"id":4089116574465250,"authorId":4089116574465250,"name":"MrHuattt","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e67f8f8c2b0192fadc4cd499a84e6c8b","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":884891756,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>Ok</u>","text":"<u>Ok</u>","html":"<u>Ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":884808059,"gmtCreate":1631874022771,"gmtModify":1676530658335,"author":{"id":"3575544839686991","authorId":"3575544839686991","name":"james33738","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e76f4a02d378ba161c6666637ecbba14","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Yesd","listText":"Yesd","text":"Yesd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884808059","repostId":1139296336,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5902436,"gmtCreate":1631874579780,"gmtModify":1663234021252,"authorId":3575639261045142,"author":{"id":3575639261045142,"authorId":3575639261045142,"name":"TerenceTan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"cr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