As urbanization continues to advance, the concentration of population remains a persistent trend. The period of the "15th Five-Year Plan" will usher in a new phase of development for Chinese cities. By 2025, China's permanent resident urbanization rate had reached 67.89%. Many experts predict that by 2035, the nation's urbanization rate could approach around 75%. This indicates that nearly 100 million more people will migrate to cities in the next decade. Which cities will lead this population race? Currently, China has 18 cities with populations exceeding 10 million, including Chongqing, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu, with Hefei being the latest addition after its population reached 10.002 million in 2024. Furthermore, there are 13 cities with populations between 9 and 10 million, 6 of which have surpassed 9.5 million: Harbin, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Foshan, Nanjing, and Jinan. Crossing the 10-million threshold tests a city's developmental capacity and governance capabilities. Reaching this milestone is far from the finish line; for major population centers, the greater challenge lies in achieving more resilient and sustainable development after scaling up.
Public data shows that by the end of 2024, there were 13 cities in China with permanent resident populations between 9 and 10 million. Six of these exceeded 9.5 million: Harbin (9.858 million), Wenzhou (9.852 million), Ningbo (9.777 million), Foshan (9.6989 million), Nanjing (9.577 million), and Jinan (9.515 million). Based on the data, these six cities are on the cusp of reaching the milestone. However, Harbin presents a unique case. Public data indicates that as early as 2018, Harbin's permanent resident population reached 10.858 million, entering the ranks of "10-million population" cities. Yet, over the following three years, its population gradually declined, dropping to 9.776 million by 2023 before rebounding to 9.858 million in 2024. Whether this recovery momentum can be sustained and whether it can rejoin the 10-million population club remains highly uncertain. A similar situation exists with Nanyang in Henan province. In 2008, Nanyang's permanent resident population surpassed 10 million, peaking in 2010 before gradually declining, falling below 10 million in 2017. By the end of 2024, its population stood at 9.454 million; although still above 9 million, it is moving further away from the 10-million mark.
In contrast, the other cities have maintained relatively strong population growth trajectories, positioning them as strong contenders for the 10-million population title. In 2024, Wenzhou's permanent resident population was 9.852 million, just 148,000 people short of 10 million. Furthermore, Wenzhou's population has been consistently growing over recent years: 9.587 million in 2020, 9.645 million in 2021, 9.679 million in 2022, 9.761 million in 2023, and 9.852 million in 2024. Ningbo, also in the Yangtze River Delta, exhibits an even faster growth trend, with its permanent resident population increasing from 9.404 million at the end of 2020 to 9.777 million by the end of 2024. Over the past five years, Foshan's population grew from 9.4989 million to 9.6989 million, and its urbanization rate reached 95.64%, far surpassing other competitors. As provincial capitals, Nanjing and Jinan are demonstrating strong population attraction. Nanjing's population grew from 9.315 million in 2020 to 9.577 million in 2024, while Jinan's increased from 9.202 million to 9.515 million over the same period.
If growth trends from the past five years continue, Wenzhou might be the first city to cross the 10-million population threshold. On one hand, it only needs an additional 148,000 people. From 2023 to 2024, its permanent resident population grew by 91,000. On the other hand, robust economic momentum is driving urban development and creating more opportunities, serving as a major draw for population. Data shows that in 2025, Wenzhou's regional GDP surpassed one trillion yuan, officially joining the "trillion-yuan club." Meanwhile, during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Wenzhou's GDP achieved an average annual growth of 6.5%. Compared to Wenzhou, which recently entered the trillion-yuan club, Ningbo joined this group back in 2018, with its GDP reaching 1.81 trillion yuan in 2024. The combination of a massive economic scale and rapid development has given Ningbo exceptional population appeal. When Ningbo became a "trillion-yuan city" in 2018, its permanent resident population was 8.202 million; further back in 2015, it was 7.825 million. Over ten years, it has grown by 1.952 million people.
As the provincial capital of Jiangsu, Nanjing, influenced by its geographical location among other factors, attracts a significant population from Anhui province, humorously earning it the nickname "Hui Jing" (Anhui Capital). Data shows that 15 of Anhui's 16 prefecture-level cities have direct high-speed rail access to Nanjing, and Nanjing's metro lines, such as S2 and S4, extend into Anhui. However, this absorptive capacity appears to be weakening. From 2021 to 2024, Nanjing's population growth was 103,700, 67,700, 55,900, and 30,000 respectively, showing a clear deceleration. Jinan, the capital of Shandong province, shows a similar trend. Its population growth from 2021 to 2024 was 134,000, 79,000, 22,000, and 78,000 respectively. The year 2024 marked a significant turnaround, but whether rapid growth can continue post-turnaround remains uncertain.
How exactly can a city attract and retain more people? It has been noted that Wenzhou, Ningbo, Foshan, Nanjing, and Jinan have all publicly stated goals of reaching a 10-million population. The "Wenzhou City Medium and Long-Term Population Development Plan" released in 2022 proposed that the permanent resident population should exceed 10 million by 2025. Nanjing also set a 10-million population target in its "14th Five-Year Plan." The "Foshan City Population Development Plan (2025-2030)" aims for a permanent resident population of 10.16 million by 2030. Bridging the gap from target to reality, industry serves as both the fundamental driver of urban development and a major force for attracting talent. In recent years, Wenzhou's industries have been rapidly transforming; this traditional manufacturing city is shifting towards becoming a hub for emerging modern industries. The 2026 Wenzhou Government Work Report indicated that in 2025, government investment in science and technology innovation grew by 10.4%; the value-added of industries above a designated size in its five traditional advantageous industries and five emerging leading industries increased by 11.4% and 12.6% respectively, with emerging industries outpacing traditional ones.
In Ningbo, industries like new energy vehicles, new materials, high-end equipment, and humanoid robots are developing rapidly. Data from the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Statistics shows that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the value-added of its digital economy, strategic emerging industries, and high-tech industries accounted for 16.4%, 27.7%, and 65.1% respectively of the total value-added of industries above a designated size, with average annual growth rates of 9.1%, 10.6%, and 9.3% respectively. Additionally, there are Foshan's future industry layouts, Nanjing's intelligent manufacturing transformation, and Jinan's digital-intelligent city construction. Behind potential population explosions lies the talent convergence driven by the development of new types of industries. Concurrently, talent attraction policies in various cities are also a significant force behind population growth. As early as 2020, Jinan took the lead among national sub-provincial cities in implementing a "zero-threshold" household registration policy, fully relaxing residency restrictions, and subsequently introduced multiple talent attraction policies. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual increase of young talent in the city remained above 150,000. In 2023, Nanjing announced that junior college graduates under 35 could obtain household registration by paying social security, alongside numerous other talent policies. On the first working day of 2026, the Secretary of the Nanjing Municipal Party Committee personally issued a "Nanjing Talent Recruitment Call," aiming to attract no fewer than 300,000 young talents annually. This call covers everything from entrepreneurship to employment, from work to life, including financial support, transportation, housing security, and even scenic spot visits.
Ningbo's talent policies lean more towards attracting high-end innovative talent, relaxing household registration conditions, strengthening childbirth subsidies, while also catering to ordinary employment and living needs, representing a comprehensive effort. Major population centers offer more development opportunities and better public services, which are primary factors attracting people. In turn, a larger population provides stronger development momentum and brings more policy and industrial dividends. In industrial development, a larger population means more labor and a bigger market, which attracts more industries to establish themselves. Infrastructure upgrades serving population growth not only enhance urban livability but also generate strong investment-driven capacity, propelling the urban economy onto a fast track. Policy-wise, population is a crucial indicator for designating National Central Cities, Regional Central Cities, and core cities within urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas. These national-level policy supports inject stronger developmental forces into cities. Internally, population is also a foundation for development; for instance, population size is a key metric for subway construction—if the population fails to meet the standard, metro projects might remain on the drawing board.
If large cities are a global development trend, then "big city problems" are challenges all major urban centers must face. This tests a city's governance wisdom and is a critical factor for sustainable development. Ten million people is not the endpoint. As the era of extensive economic growth passes, the capacity for sustainable development will become a mandatory test for populous cities. In Nanjing, a "commuter circle" covering parts of Jiangsu and multiple prefecture-level cities in Anhui is taking shape; for example, the 200-kilometer journey from Chizhou, Anhui to Nanjing takes only 60 minutes. This might offer an alternative approach for future large cities to improve commuting: while perfecting intra-city transportation, expanding the living circle to a broader area.
A concept needs clarification: a 10-million population does not automatically equate to a megacity. China's standards for classifying city sizes have undergone several changes. In 1955, the country first introduced classification standards for large, medium, and small cities, where a population over 500,000 constituted a large city, 200,000 to 500,000 a medium city, and below 200,000 a small city. In 1980, the category of "super city" for populations over 1 million was added. The City Planning Law promulgated in 1989 specified that population calculations were based on non-agricultural population in the city proper and inner suburbs. In 2014, the "State Council Notice on Adjusting City Size Classification Standards" was issued. This standard removed the inner suburbs, using the permanent resident population in the urban area as the statistical basis. It categorized cities into five types and seven tiers: small cities, medium cities, large cities, super cities, and megacities, with population sizes of below 500,000, 500,000 to 1 million, 1 million to 5 million, 5 million to 10 million, and over 10 million, respectively. The "urban area" in the standard refers to "the area within districts of cities with districts and cities without districts, comprising the resident committee jurisdictions and other areas that are physically connected to the actual construction of the district or city government seat."
According to this standard, Wenzhou has a permanent resident population of 9.852 million, but this includes 4 districts (Lucheng, Longwan, Ouhai, Dongtou), 3 county-level cities (Ruian, Yueqing, Longgang), and 5 counties (Yongjia, Pingyang, Cangnan, Wencheng, Taishun). Jinan announced in 2022 that its actual population had exceeded 10 million, but this figure includes all people living in Jinan, such as permanent residents and floating populations. Meanwhile, Jinan's urban area population is 6.57 million, making it the sixth-largest super city nationally. According to the Seventh National Population Census, China's 22 megacities and super cities include Foshan, Nanjing, and Jinan. The most promising candidates to break the 10-million permanent resident threshold, Wenzhou and Ningbo, are not on this list, meaning their urban area populations have not exceeded 5 million. Therefore, 10 million permanent residents is far from the ultimate goal.
As societal development continues to transform, the pathways for urban development are also constantly changing. In the future, population aggregation will rely less on traditional scale expansion and increasingly depend on a city's intrinsic enhancement: refined governance capabilities, resilient city construction, metropolitan area development, improvements in livability, and the foundation for scientific and technological innovation. The emergence of the next 10-million population city, regardless of which one it is, essentially represents an exploration of a new development path. The longer-term goal is no longer merely a numerical breakthrough but a comprehensive contest involving governance capacity, industrial resilience, quality of life, and risk response capabilities. Higher-quality public services like elderly care, education, transportation, and healthcare are crucial foundations for attracting young workers, while a better business environment and talent policies form the bedrock for young entrepreneurs to pursue their dreams. If "10 million people" is a city's developmental dream, then the path to achieving this dream is to make the city itself a place where young people can chase their own dreams.
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