According to a research report from Guotai Haitong Securities, the firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on the biopharmaceutical industry. Autoimmune blockbuster drugs serve as a crucial foundation for Multinational Corporations' (MNCs) existing businesses. With patents approaching expiration, MNCs are accelerating their deployment of next-generation autoimmune pipelines. Chinese companies are positioned to potentially achieve a technological leapfrog in next-generation autoimmune treatment pathways and deeply participate in MNCs' global strategic layout for autoimmune therapies. The main viewpoints from Guotai Haitong Securities are as follows:
The autoimmune therapeutic area has historically produced multiple blockbuster drugs, catalyzing the emergence of several MNCs with market capitalizations exceeding one hundred billion dollars. A review of AbbVie's history shows that, driven by the commercialization of its core blockbuster and successful pipeline iteration, the company experienced two golden growth periods that significantly boosted its stock price. The first period (2013-2018) relied on the massive uptake of the "drug king" adalimumab (peak sales of approximately $19.9 billion in 2018), with the stock price rising from $19.90 to $87.44, delivering an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 34% during the interval. The second period (2020-2025) saw upadacitinib and risankizumab successfully take the baton and rapidly commercialize, driving the stock price from $50.56 to $240.69, with an interval IRR of 33%. Similarly, reviewing Sanofi's history, since the launch of its blockbuster drug dupilumab, global sales have consistently climbed, reaching $17.8 billion by 2025; the company's stock price rose from a low of $28.56 in 2018 to nearly $56.90 by 2025, yielding an IRR of 11% over that period.
Even with numerous limitations in efficacy and patient compliance, first-generation autoimmune products continue to demonstrate strong sales performance globally, producing multiple multi-billion dollar blockbusters and highlighting the immense potential of the autoimmune market. It is predicted that next-generation autoimmune products will undergo comprehensive technological iteration across three dimensions: effectiveness, safety, and compliance. These improvements aim to help patients establish better medication habits, extend the Duration of Therapy (DOT), and further expand the autoimmune market space.
MNCs are accelerating their deployment of next-generation autoimmune products, and Chinese companies are expected to achieve a technological leapfrog. An analysis of major Business Development (BD) transactions by MNCs with total values exceeding $1 billion reveals that MNCs are continuously accelerating their strategic moves in the autoimmune field. Since 2024, the participation of Chinese companies in these significant MNC BD deals has increased rapidly. This positions them to potentially leapfrog in next-generation technological pathways and participate deeply in MNCs' global autoimmune business strategies.
From the perspective of technological iteration pathways, for T-cell mediated autoimmune diseases, the key technological areas MNCs have focused on over the past three years include dual/multiple cytokine blockers, long-acting and inhaled formulations, and oral products. Exploration of new targets has primarily concentrated on TL1A. For B-cell mediated autoimmune diseases, the key technological areas MNCs have emphasized include TCE immune reset therapies, cell and gene therapy immune reset therapies, and complement inhibitors. Chinese companies are at the international forefront in several areas, including dual/multiple cytokine blockers and TCE immune reset therapies.
Investment recommendation: It is advised to monitor companies such as Connaura, Haisco, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, InventisBio, InnoCare Pharma, China Medical System, Sansheng Biomedicine, Harbour BioMed, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, Innovent Biologics, Quanxin Biotech, Everest Medicines, Akeso, and Zhixiang Jintai.
Risk warnings include risks associated with research and development not meeting expectations and risks of commercialization falling short of forecasts.
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