Late-Night Warning for Stock Code 688256: Share Price Faces Potential Downward Risk

Deep News06-30

Following last night's alert for memory leader Gigadevice, tonight it's AI chip firm Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited's turn.

It was unexpected that Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited had just become the first company on the STAR Market to achieve a market capitalization exceeding one trillion yuan, only to issue a risk warning in the evening.

On the evening of June 30th, Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited released a stock trading risk alert announcement.

The announcement mentioned the following points:

The company's stock price has seen a substantial cumulative increase, exceeding the gains of relevant indices such as the STAR Market Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index, which may lead to a risk of decline following a period of rapid short-term appreciation.

The company's rolling price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio are significantly higher than industry averages, indicating a risk associated with elevated valuation.

The company is currently still in a phase of continuous development, and its ability to withstand market volatility and industry changes is relatively limited.

The company operates under a Fabless model, with suppliers including IP licensors, server manufacturers, wafer foundries, and packaging and testing plants. Given the specialized division of labor and high technical barriers across the integrated circuit industry chain, coupled with the fact that the company and some of its subsidiaries have been placed on the 'Entity List', there are certain risks to the stability of the company's supply chain.

In recent years, domestic demand for semiconductor industry raw materials has continued to grow, leading to upstream supply shortages and an overall upward trend in procurement prices. If upstream raw material prices continue to rise in the future, it could adversely affect the company's operational performance.

Notably, on June 30th, Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited's stock price surged over 8% intraday, pushing its total market capitalization past the 1 trillion yuan mark. This milestone represents a historic achievement for the STAR Market, placing the company 9th in terms of total market value among A-share companies.

According to the first-quarter report for this year, Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited achieved revenue of 2.885 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 159.56%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.04%. The performance improvement is primarily attributed to sustained growth in demand for artificial intelligence industry computing power during the reporting period. The company leveraged the competitive strength of its products to continuously expand its market presence and actively promote the implementation of AI application scenarios, leading to a significant year-on-year revenue increase.

In response to this development, a commentary noted that the more a company becomes the focus of market attention, the more it needs to look beyond its market value halo and assess current challenges soberly. Firstly, the pressure of aligning valuation with performance cannot be ignored. Current market expectations for the AI sector are high, with valuations incorporating not only the company's own technological progress but also the potential benefits from external factors like import substitution. High valuation is a 'double-edged sword'; while it can provide ammunition for R&D, it also implies pressure for valuation correction if subsequent product commercialization or performance fails to meet expectations.

Secondly, domestic AI chips still need to overcome hurdles as they progress from being 'usable' to 'user-friendly'. Objectively, domestic chips have reached a usable level in inference scenarios and computing power, but there remains a gap compared to international top-tier levels in areas like high-end large model training hardware and developer ecosystem development.

Thirdly, there is a need to guard against an industry mindset of impatience fueled by market value enthusiasm. Under the demonstration effect of a trillion-yuan market capitalization, the sector may see issues such as overheated financing and intensified homogeneous competition. Some companies might also be distracted by short-term market value management due to stock price fluctuations, potentially relaxing long-term technological R&D efforts. This is a latent concern for the long-term development of the hard-tech industry.

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