Today, the three major A-share indices closed with mixed results. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.14%, the ChiNext Index dropped 0.26%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index surged 3.88%, and the STAR 50 Index gained 1%. Total market turnover reached 1.4715 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7 billion yuan from the previous day, with more than 3,700 individual stocks advancing across the market.
In terms of sector themes, automation equipment, humanoid robots, reducers, semiconductors, and MLOps concept sectors led the gains; insurance, China shipbuilding-related stocks, coal mining and processing, complete vehicles, and airport aviation sectors lagged behind.
On the trading floor, the humanoid robot sector opened lower but climbed steadily, with more than ten stocks including Changying Precision, Ningbo Dongli, Zhejiang Rongtai, and Fulaixin Materials hitting the daily limit, while Haitian Ruisheng, Hanwei Technology, and Dema Technology posted strong gains. The consumer electronics sector was active, with Kesen Technology and Longqi Technology hitting the limit up, and Fuliwang, Transsion Holdings, and Jingyan Technology among the top gainers. The semiconductor sector also performed actively, with Hengxuan Technology and Beken Corporation hitting the limit up, while Galaxy Microelectronics, Espressif Systems, and Moore Threads led the gains.
The coal mining and processing sector opened lower and drifted down, with Dayou Energy, Antai Group, and Zhengzhou Coal & Electricity among the biggest decliners. The China shipbuilding-related sector showed weakness, with Kunchuan Intelligent, China Marine Information Electronics, and CSSC Offshore & Marine Engineering leading the sector's declines.
Although a package of policy positives was announced after yesterday's market close at the Financial Street Forum, and overnight U.S. stocks rallied broadly, A-shares opened poorly due to the sharp declines in Japanese and South Korean markets in early trading. However, driven by sectors such as humanoid robots, the three major indices turned positive and advanced steadily. Yet in the afternoon, the situation changed abruptly, with all three major indices plunging into negative territory, the number of advancing stocks dropping significantly, and market sentiment cooling once again. Near the close, mysterious capital stepped in once more, with certain broad-based ETFs seeing notable volume increases, ultimately pushing the Shanghai Composite Index to close in the green while other indices narrowed their losses.
It is worth noting that today's A-share movement was a typical close-quarters battle between emotional release and capital support, and also an intense exchange of bullish and bearish forces at a key point under the current weak equilibrium pattern. On one hand, the afternoon plunge was triggered by a concentrated release of multiple pressures. Externally, long-end U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, and the rise in global risk-free rates continued to suppress the valuation anchors of high-valuation growth stocks, with the ChiNext Index being more sensitive to interest rates and naturally falling more deeply. Internally, third-quarter earnings disclosure entered a密集 window, and the market's pricing logic shifted from "speculating on expectations" to "scrutinizing profitability," with previously crowded positions in technology sectors facing redemption pressure, and weight directions such as computing hardware and semiconductors becoming concentrated selling areas. Combined with intraday plunges in Japanese and South Korean markets, repeated Middle East tensions, and the fact that total turnover in the two markets had shrunk from the 3 trillion yuan level at the end of June to around 1.4 trillion yuan, the lack of supporting capital amplified the slope of the decline.
On the other hand, the surge in broad-based ETF volume near the close is a signal more deserving of careful reading. ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF (510050) traded over 4 billion yuan within 20 minutes, and ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF (510330) traded over 800 million yuan within 20 minutes. ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF (588000) saw its turnover exceed 9.7 billion yuan, and E Fund ChiNext ETF (159915) traded over 7.5 billion yuan. This kind of contrarian massive volume appearing amid panic selling and concentrated in core broad-based indices is difficult to explain by retail behavior and more closely matches the operational characteristics of mysterious large capital using ETFs to absorb sentiment and stabilize key levels. In fact, equity ETFs have maintained net inflows for multiple consecutive trading days, with considerable cumulative scale, indicating that during the process of repeated bottoming of the index, allocation-type capital is using real money to delineate the value range it recognizes.
Together, these two forces point to one judgment: the short-term market's fragility stems from sentiment and position structure, not from a systemic deterioration in fundamentals. However, the support from ETFs near the close can delay the pace of decline and prevent a liquidity spiral, but it is not yet sufficient to unilaterally reverse the trend. The key observation points going forward lie in whether earnings expectations can stabilize after third-quarter reports are fully disclosed, and whether the sustainability of ETF net inflows gradually transforms from "supporting the bottom" to "pulling the market." Before that, the market's normal state will likely remain range-bound oscillation with rapid structural rotation.
Looking ahead, in the short term, the market will most likely continue its pattern of oscillating and bottoming out with structural rotation. However, a positive signal worth noting is that broad-based ETFs have continued to see significant volume increases in recent days, indicating that mysterious large-scale capital is making left-side布局 through broad-based tools. This "buying more as prices fall" behavior means that the 3,674-3,700 point zone on the Shanghai Composite Index has relatively strong support, and the downside space at that level is relatively limited; meanwhile, at yesterday's Financial Street Forum, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed a determination to "spare no effort in maintaining the safety and stability of the capital market," undoubtedly injecting a shot of confidence into the market. Of course, a trend reversal still requires turnover to stabilize and third-quarter earnings to be confirmed. In terms of allocation, it is advisable to maintain balance, paying attention to low-valuation consumer and high-dividend assets on the defensive side, and selecting directions with earnings certainty on the offensive side.
In the medium to long term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about market trends. After this round of adjustment, the medium-term cost-effectiveness of A-share overall valuations has further improved, and the problem of structurally high valuations in some sectors has been alleviated to a considerable extent. The restructuring of the global monetary order and the narrative of the technology industry still provide support, the domestic policy toolbox is ample, new growth drivers such as new quality productive forces continue to take over, and the barbell allocation strategy still has reference value in the current environment.
[Note: Markets carry risks, and investment requires caution. Under no circumstances do the information or opinions expressed in this subscription account constitute investment advice for anyone. Unless otherwise noted, the research data in this article is supported by Tonghuashun iFinD.]
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